Unlike many of the people who write about the upcoming NFL Draft, I do not pretend to have put in hundreds of hours of work breaking down films and working the phones. The reason I don’t pretend to have done that is that I have not done that – - although I really wonder if all of the other “experts” who claim to have done so really have done so. Here is my claim:
I like college football. Therefore, I watch a lot of college football. For the hell of it, I keep a notepad with me while I watch most of those games and when I see a player that I think has pro potential, I make a note of it.
That’s all there is to it. And now this is sort of a compendium of my notes.
There is an obvious bias here; I really only can give you first hand knowledge of players on teams that have been on TV in a geographic area where I happened to be at the time. So, even if there was a hugely impressive performance in the Rocky Mountain College/Dickinson State game in Wherever North Dakota, I would not be able to tell you about it because I had no chance to see it. In a few rare cases, I will relate here the comments of others about a player I have never seen; those cases will be clearly identified.
In the past, I’ve identified late round picks who actually made the roster of the team that drafted them and then went on to play for that team. I’ve also identified players who never drew even a whit of interest from NFL teams. I’m not a scout; I don’t claim to be one; I don’t have a pipeline into the “scouting network”. Whatever…
Let’s start with quarterbacks:
I saw Delaware play in two of the Division 1-AA playoff games and was impressed with QB, Joe Flacco. He is not fleet afoot by any means but my notes say he is “huge”. Indeed, he is listed as 6/7” tall and he probably looked big by comparison because he was playing in Division I-AA games; but in addition to being physically large, he has a strong and accurate arm. Can he step in and be a starter in Game 1 of the 2008 NFL season? No. Can he be developed into a starter? I think so. Before he went to Delaware, he was at Pitt and left there because the Pitt folks picked someone else to be the starting QB there.
I started out very impressed by Brian Brohm of Louisville; my first notes say he is a candidate for the Academic All-America team (always good for a QB) and that he is very accurate with his throws. Subsequent notes say his arm isn’t that strong and that he floats the ball too much. Because of the competition he played against, he’ll probably be taken ahead of Joe Flacco but I’m not sure that Brohm will be the better pro QB.
Matt Ryan is the acclaimed best QB in the draft. My notes say “good arm but not great”, “accurate passer”, “mobility against college defenders will not translate to mobility in NFL” and “not worth playing him ‘QB money’ high in first round”. Obviously, I differ from the common wisdom here; so be it.
I was underwhelmed by Kentucky QB André Woodson. My notes say “slow to deliver the ball”, “throws into traffic a lot” and “not real accurate”. Lots of folks have been raving about him for the last two years, so that’s why I focused on him while watching Kentucky play last year. I’d take him in really late rounds but not before that.
Colt Brennan can surely throw the football even though he looked awful in the bowl game against Georgia. Any QB will look bad when he is being knocked from pillar to post by defensive linemen who overmatch the offensive lineman nominally protecting that QB. Nevertheless, his numbers are inflated by the system he played in and his performance in that big game was horrible. He’ll be a late round pick – - but if he gets on a good team and takes a couple of years to learn how to play big time football and plays with protection, he could be pretty good.
Dennis Dixon has impressive running skills and an accurate if not a powerful arm. Playing in Oregon’s spread offense means he would have a major transition to make in the NFL in any circumstances. On top of that, his knee injury at the end of the season – surely aggravated by his decision to try to play on it – makes him an even bigger gamble. All my notes on Dixon are positive, but I don’t think I’d spend a first day pick on him at this point.
Finally, there are three QBs for major football programs that I saw who I noted were not worth spending a draft pick on. My notes say that if these guys are free agents, you could think about signing them and seeing if they can scramble to make your developmental squad. They are Anthony Morelli (Penn State), John David Booty (USC) and Erik Ainge (Tennessee).
Moving on to running backs:
Jonathan Stewart (Oregon) has the most positive comments on my sheets. I said I liked his strength and his aggressive running style. I also liked that he caught the ball on the few occasions when they threw it to him and that he blocked well out of the backfield. He’s built like a bowling ball and runs low to the ground. The bad news is that he had surgery on his toe and that might drop him to the point where he could be an ever-loving steal in the draft. I liked him a lot.
Because I liked Jonathon Stewart, I also liked Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois). I saw speed, strength, aggressiveness, and blocking skills here. And he has not had toe surgery any time recently…
I had mixed feelings about Darren McFadden (Arkansas). I noted that he is very fast and that he’s effective returning kicks. I also noted that lots of his plays come from direct snaps from center where he lines up where a shotgun QB would line up; that’s not gonna happen in the NFL. And I don’t think he will be an aggressive runner at the NFL level where he gains a couple of yards after every initial contact. Everyone says to pick him in the top five; I would not pick him nearly that high…
While I was watching Delaware in those Division I-AA playoff games, I also noticed RB, Omar Cuff. He’s not going to be a star in the NFL and he won’t be drafted on Saturday, but I have notes here that say he is a “tough runner” and has “good speed”.
Ray Rice (Rutgers) looked spectacular on some plays and decidedly mediocre on others. My notes say “wildly inconsistent” and “starter in NFL if he plays up to potential”. There aren’t loads of great running backs in this draft; nonetheless, his up and down play would lead me to wait until late in the draft to take him.
With regard to Mike Hart (Michigan), my note reads “too small and too slow”. Sorry to all the Michigan fans out there.
Cory Boyd (So. Carolina) impressed me as big and “quick to the hole” Also he caught the ball when they threw it to him. The negative side of my notes say “not a breakaway threat”. He’s probably a late round selection or a guy you sign as a free agent if he goes undrafted.
I only saw one fullback that made enough of an impression on me to write down anything on my notepad. That was Owen Schmitt (West Virginia) and I really was impressed with his blocking ability. He can block in a passing situation from a “fixed stance” and he can block effectively on running plays to get the running back out on the edge. He is “not a game breaker but a guy who will help an offense with his fundamental blocking skill.” I doubt he’ll go on the first day of the draft, but some team will get a pretty good player in the fifth or sixth round of this draft…
With tight ends, I think it is important to look at them for their blocking abilities in addition to their abilities to run patterns and catch the ball. So I like these guys for different reasons:
John Carlson (Notre Dame) is a very good blocker on running plays and he can catch the ball when he gets his hands on it. He is “not fast – looks like he’s running knee deep in peanut butter”. He also covered punts. There is no reason to draft him in the first round but my notes say “should make a roster in the NFL as a late-round pick”.
Dustin Keller (Purdue) is “fast for a tight end” and has “very good hands”. But I also said that he was “unimpressive as a blocker on run plays and when double-teaming a defensive end.” Again, he is probably a late round pick.
Anthony Hill (NC State) is “big as a house and not a whole lot faster” than a house. A screen graphic said he weighed 270 lbs; my guess is that would be the case if you weighed him before lunch. Power blocking is his calling card; he should be available late in the draft.
A friend says that Adam Bishop (Nevada) is a sleeper in the draft and someone who will make an NFL squad for sure next year. I saw Nevada play Boise State last year and found no reason to take any notes on Adam Bishop. So, I mention his name here only because he was mentioned to me in a very specific way.
Before talking about wide receivers in this draft, I want to say that drafting wide receivers in the first round – particularly in the early stages of the first round – is a dangerous proposition. Just off the top of my head, here are a few WRs who cost their teams a first round pick – and first round pick signing bonus money – and who never amounted to much more than a dollop of donkey dung in the NFL: RJ Soward, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson, Freddie Mitchell, David Terrell and Charles Rogers. So, for teams considering a wide receiver with a top 15 selection, the words to remember ought to be caveat emptor.
Going through my notes, I notice that I have very few mentions of wide receivers in there. That means either I slept through a huge fraction of the passing plays in the college football season or that there were only three wide receives worth the time and energy to write something down about. I suspect it was the latter. Nevertheless:
James Hardy (Indiana) is tall, big, and fast and can catch anything he gets his hands on. He does not look particularly fast so he’s probably not going to be an NFL “vertical threat”. He blocked on running plays, which is always a plus. He “will be drafted on the first day.”
Mario Manningham (Michigan) is big and strong and goes aggressively after balls thrown high in the air. That’s the good news. He also “drops passes that NFL WRs will be expected to catch.” And, he’s just not very fast – - which could be his undoing in the NFL. I’d pass on him unless it was a really late round in the draft.
DeShawn Jackson (Cal) is the opposite of Manningham. Jackson can fly but he’s really small. I doubt that he weighs 180 pounds with all of his gear on. He catches the ball well and did some kick returning. My notes say, “if NFL team that wears blue uniforms takes him, he’ll look like a Smurf”.
Another friend sent along a note praising Akron WR, Jabari Arthur telling me that Arthur caught 15 passes in a single game last year. That’s impressive at any level of the game even if one is playing against a defensive secondary made up exclusively of zombies. I thanked this person for his note and promised to mention it here; then I got a follow up note after the Motor City Bowl asking me if I had seen Jabari Arthur in that game. Of course, I had not; but my correspondent mentioned that Arthur “caught nine passes for 180 yards” in that game against Memphis. Take all this information for what it’s worth; my correspondent may have been Jabari Arthur’s older brother for all I know. I can tell you with certainty that I do not know Jabari Arthur from King Arthur or Bea Arthur.
Several offensive linemen were impressive last year. Because the NFL moves these players around so often, I just try to look for guys who are big, strong and quick and who have sound blocking techniques. I don’t “project” them as left tackles or right guards or whatever.
My notes on Jake Long (Michigan) say that he “buries defenders lots of the time” and that he can pass block as well as he can run block. The stats say Long is 6’7” tall and weighs 315 lbs. This is the kind of offensive lineman I tend to like. According to reports this week, Long has signed with the Miami Dolphins as the #1 overall pick in the draft.
Gosder Cherilus (Boston College) is also a “very large human being” who hustles and “plays hard on every play”. I also noted that he was downfield on running plays throwing blocks. I liked him a lot too.
Brandon Albert (UVa) is big and blocks well on run plays and pass plays. Maybe he so good because he has to practice against Chris Long every day? My note says “sure to be gone by end of Round 2”. If the signing of Jake Long starts a run on offensive linemen, then he may be gone by the middle of the first round.
Fernando Velasco (UGa) was always aggressive and usually successful in getting his man out of the play. A screen graphic said he had played both guard and center for Georgia so that can’t be a bad thing for an NFL team looking for help on the OL. My notes say, “mid-round pick”.
I liked Steve Justice (Wake Forest) at center because of his quickness off the ball. My notes say, “second day pick”.
Two other offensive linemen made my list with the simple notation “worth taking if available late in the draft”. Those were Tony Hills (Texas) and Mike McGlynn (Pitt).
By the way, I mentioned above that I watched the Nevada/Boise State game last season. I made no notes about Boise State tackle Ryan Clady. Some now think he is one of the top two or three offensive linemen in the entire draft. Sorry, but I just didn’t notice him…
On the defensive side, I had fewer players than usual highlighted. Maybe I was mesmerized by all the spread formations in college football last year and didn’t focus on defense as much as I usually do. Or maybe, this is not a draft loaded with defensive stars in the making? Whatever…
On the defensive line, I noted several players:
Glenn Dorsey (LSU) and Chris Long (UVa) were obvious standouts. Watching them in different games, I made the same note about each player, “If you need a DT (or DE) and you don’t take this guy, then what do you think you need?”
Quentin Groves (Auburn) “will be a pass rushing specialist” either as a DE or as an OLB depending on the defensive philosophy of the team that gets him. My notes say he ran down a sweep to the wide side of the field away from him and stopped play for no gain. He is both quick and fast.
Cliff Avril (Purdue) is also someone who may be a DE or an OLB. He is a good pass rusher and he uses his hands well to get off blocks on running plays to his side of the field.
Keilen Dykes (West Virginia) was a “run-stopper” who didn’t get moved around very much. My notes say take him on the second day of the draft.
DeMario Pressley (NC State) is also a run-stopper who also gets good push inside on passing plays. How does NC State turn out so many good defensive linemen and linebackers and still remain a mediocre team? That’s a mystery of the universe.
Derrick Harvey (Florida) is a “pass rushing machine”. My notes say he “can probably scratch his ankles without bending over”; he has a huge wingspan. My notes say “third round – - maybe second”.
Carlton Powell (Va Tech) is “big and strong” but “not fleet afoot”. My notes say “late round pick because of his size and strength”.
Please note that Vernon Gholston (Ohio State) is not on my list here. I saw Ohio State play at least twice last year and maybe three times and I was never moved to write his name on my notepad. Perchance I failed to recognize his greatness; perchance he is one of those “workout wonders” who rocket up the draft charts every year. If I am right and he was not worth noting last year as an outstanding player, then the two words every team tempted to take him in the top Ten must remember are these: Mike. Mamula.
I also did not make any notes about Sedrick Ellis (USC) and he too has been written about as a highly regarded defensive end in this draft. I never said I was perfect…
A few linebackers impressed me:
Dan Connor (Penn State) seemed to be “in on every tackle of the game”. I also liked the fact that he was fast enough to play pass defense effectively. My notes say, “first round pick”.
Keith Rivers (USC) “sheds blockers well” and seems to be around the ball a lot. He’s probably a second round pick.
Curtis Lofton (Okla) is a hard hitter but my notes say he “doesn’t cover pass routes well”. I said Lofton was a second round/third round pick.
Vince Hall (Va Tech) is a big hitter but he is awfully short for an inside linebacker. My notes say, “looks like Sam Mills reincarnated”. Now if he could play as well as Sam Mills, that would be just fine …
Xavier Adibi (Va Tech) is a speed rushing outside linebacker. He might be a teams “designated sacker”. My notes say he “tends to get pushed around on power runs to his side”.
Now that I look at my notes as a whole, this would not be a great year for an NFL team to be looking to “get well” in their defensive backfield based on the draft. I only have six players mentioned in my notes in defensive backfield positions and some of them are “lesser round picks”.
Tracy Porter (Indiana) is a cornerback who is good if not great in coverage but is a “sure tackler”. My notes say he is also “small”. Depending on the source you read, he is listed at 5’ 9” or 5’ 10”. He’ll see much bigger receivers in the NFL.
Antoine Cason (Ariz) is a cornerback who covers well and who is a hard hitter. What I liked particularly about Cason was that he “hustled on every play”.
Aquib Talib (Kansas) is a good coverage guy who is also a decent tackler. But my notes say he “might be a step slower than an NFL cornerback needs to be”.
Josh Barrett (Ariz St) is “fast” “good in coverage” and “a solid hitter”. That sounds like a good strong safety pick to me.
Kenny Phillips (Miami) is “a big hitter and very quick”. He should be a solid safety – probably free safety – in the NFL.
Trae Williams (U So Fla) is “very fast but very small”. I say he’s worth a look on the second day of the draft.
I saw only one punter and one kicker worth noting all of last year.
Durant Brooks (GaTech) was a punter with a big leg who got lots of distance plus hang time on his punts.
Taylor Mehlhalf (Wisconsin) had some booming kickoffs deep into the end zone when I saw him.
So there it is. In addition to having your draft tracker on the laptop next to your easy chair this weekend as you watch the NFL Draft, you can also have this listing open and available to you. It probably will not add to your viewing enjoyment all that much, but it can’t hurt either.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…