I would like to believe that someone noticed that I did not do Mythical Picks last year. That would give me an incentive to do them all the way through this football season. However, I do not really have a whole list of things I would rather do; so, I will do them anyhow.
For new readers, let me set the stage. I am one of those people who has been known to wager on sporting events – - even collegiate ones. Dr. Myles Brand does not like that; that is fine with me because I do not particularly like Dr. Myles Brand either. However, I do NOT encourage anyone else to wager on sporting events unless they have made that decision for themselves completely independently of my writings. Moreover, I do not pretend that these Mythical Picks are based on any kind of special insight or “inside information” that might lead anyone to believe they have an easy way to Easy Street.
It’s very simple. I’m a football fan; I follow both college and professional football. So, I keep notes on what I see and what I read/hear about teams and use those notes to make Mythical Picks – - please note the word “Mythical” here – - on the outcomes of games.
Here is the format. After this first week, I will review the previous week’s picks with regard to highlights and lowlights. Then I will make some general comments about NCAA football. Then I will list games that I call “Ponderosa Spreads” (big spreads of 24 points or more). Then I will talk about games of interest.
No one – let me emphasize nobody – should use anything here as the basis for making a real wager involving actual legal tender. Anyone doing that would be so stupid that the following advice would be useful to him/her:
Don’t be ignorant all your life; take a day off once in a while.
General Comments:
Ohio State is projected to be in the BCS Championship Game again this year against yet another SEC team. I think we have seen that movie before. A friend of mine – who is from SEC territory – says that all the SEC teams have access to a recipe for something called “Buckeye Bread” and here it is:
Put the Buckeyes in a Bowl.
Let them rise for about ten minutes.
Then beat them down for several hours, put them in the oven and serve when they are done.
Normally, the Ohio State out-of-conference schedule is easy to poke fun at but this year they will play USC and so they get a pass from any kind of schedule ridicule. Therefore, I had to go looking for a team that was ranked that also did not have any tough out-of-conference opponents on the schedule to assure that they would have a nicely padded record at the end of the year. Two teams provided examples and both come from the Big-12:
Missouri found room on their dance card for Southeast Missouri (Division 1-AA) and Nevada and Buffalo all at home. If Missouri has 10 wins for the year, remember where three of them came from.
Texas Tech summoned the courage to book Eastern Washington (Division 1-AA), Nevada (are they thinking of joining the Big-12?), SMU and UMass (Division 1-AA) to start the season. What’s the matter? Was Vegetative State unavailable?
I am rooting against Navy this year. This has nothing to do with a lack of patriotism or any animus toward the Naval Academy. I am rooting against them – to the extent that I want them to win only 5 games all season long – because that will make them ineligible for a bowl game. Why do I want them not to play in a bowl game?
The NCAA has sanctioned the Congressional Bowl this year; it will be played before Christmas in Washington DC. (Odds are the weather will be miserable.) The attraction for the game will be a bowl-eligible Navy team and they would take on the ninth place team in the ACC – assuming that team has won 6 games for the season. With Navy in the game, the organizers will draw a crowd in DC; but if Navy is out and this new game in a bad locale has to go shopping for an opponent to the ninth-place ACC squad, they might have to settle for Wyoming/NC State. Should that happen, the only way there will be more than 8,000 folks at the game is if they round up all the homeless folks in town and serve them food in the stadium seats. Yes, I would love to see that happen…
Here are some of my college coaches on the hot seat for 2008:
Ty Willingham – Washington: Schedule is a tough one but coming on top of a cumulative 9-25 record in Willingham’s tenure there, he probably still needs to be bowl eligible to hang in there. The Seattle Times reported that the Huskies could start 10 freshmen or sophomores this year. That does not make the Huskies’ schedule look any easier.
Mike Stoops – Arizona: Four consecutive seasons without a winning record and he has kept his job. I do not think he will do that if he takes that string out to five consecutive seasons…
Ralph Friedgen – Maryland: This program is going in reverse. It’s not all Friedgen’s fault, but if he doesn’t win six or seven games this year, he may be looking for work.
Dave Wannstedt – Pitt: Big things are expected this year and he has another highly rated bunch of recruits there. It may be “put up or shut up” time. He may be the coach with the best porn ‘stache in the country, but that won’t be good enough if the Panthers underachieve again.
Mike Sanford – UNLV: Too many seasons with only two wins per season here. The Rebels need to win 5 games at a dead minimum.
Tim Brewster – Minnesota: I know; he’s only been there one year so far but he was 1-11 in that one season and he lost to North Dakota State. Anything even approaching that level of ineptitude and he’s gonzo.
Ponderosa Spreads This Week:
These games take their name from the name of the large ranch (Get it? Big Spread?) on the TV show, Bonanza. I’ve defined the limit as a spread of 24 points or more. The last two years that I tracked these games, the oddsmakers have been very good with the numbers. The results were such that bettors could not have made money by betting the underdogs in all the games or by betting the favorites in all the games. We shall see how things play out this year…
FIU at Kansas – 36.5 (57.5) Bet on this game only if you know someone playing in it. If FIU is “plus-6” in turnovers, the game might go down to the wire. Otherwise…
Hawaii at Florida – 33.5 (67.5) Last time Hawaii played a team from the SEC it was in the Sugar Bowl and it was a disaster. Even with a new coach and a new QB and a new offensive system, Hawaii probably has not forgotten how to score but Florida should march through their defense with ease. If you must bet this game, take the OVER.
Idaho at Arizona – 27 (62.5) Arizona is a mediocre team; Idaho is a bad team. Stay away from games like this…
Akron at Wisconsin – 26.5 (51.5) Wisconsin could be a top-10 team this year. Akron surely is not. This game screams “MISMATCH!”
LA-Monroe at Auburn – 26.5 (49) Yawn!
N. Texas at K-State – 26 (67) Double yawn!!
FAU at Texas – 24 (65.5) FAU is the best of these sacrificial lambs but Texas should be able to score at will.
Games of Interest:
James Madison at Duke (no lines): This is probably the best opportunity for Duke to win a game this year. After this come Northwestern and Navy and then nine ACC games. Duke has a new coach and supposedly a new energy. If so, they should win handily here. Even if they don’t have any new energy, they had better win this game or students may start to camp out in Krzyzewski-ville starting on 1 October…
SMU at Rice – 3 (67.5) June Jones is at SMU now and he will throw the ball all over the field against a mediocre Rice defense. Rice throws the ball a lot too and SMU’s defense is nothing to write home about. Take the OVER here. The total could go into the 80s…
Temple – 3.5 at Army (41): Here are two teams seeking to reverse their football fortunes. Just to put a perspective on it, Temple is favored on the road. Wow!
Chattanooga at Oklahoma (no lines): How did this game happen? The Christians had a better chance against the Lions in the Coliseum…
Clemson – 4.5 vs. Alabama (46): The game is in Atlanta so there is no real “home field advantage here. Clemson is supposed to be the top dog in the ACC this year; Alabama is still building. Take the Tigers and lay the points.
Appalachian State at LSU (no lines): Appalachian State is the defending Division 1-AA champ; LSU is the defending Division 1-A champ. No way LSU takes this game lightly after what “A-State” did to Michigan last year on opening day.
Utah at Michigan – 4 (40.5): I’m not convinced that Michigan is ready to run their new offense, which is built around speed just yet. Utah obviously hasn’t played in an environment like The Big House, but I’d still take them with the points.
Maine at Iowa (no lines): How did this game get scheduled?
Syracuse at Northwestern – 11 (56): Syracuse is picked to be the Big East doormat this year. Northwestern is one of Mel Kiper Jr.’s “sleeper teams” for the year. You’d have to think that a “sleeper team” can roll over a “doormat team”, no?
Illinois vs. Missouri – 9.5 (59.5): Game is in St. Louis so no real home field advantage here. Illinois has most of its players back from the team that went to the Rose Bowl last year – - where they were crushed by USC. Missouri is a good team, but getting a Rose Bowl team plus 9.5 points is a good deal.
UTEP at Buffalo – 3.5 (59): Who scheduled this game? Don’t tell me that anyone thinks this will turn into a great intersectional rivalry game…
Fresno State at Rutgers – 5 (59.5): Just a hunch but I like Fresno State here despite the six-hour journey across three time zones.
Utah State at UNLV – 12.5 (48): These teams each won twice last year. It’s not as if UNLV is a powerhouse program. So, how bad must Utah State be to get 12.5 points against the Rebels?
Good luck.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…