After the disastrous showing in Mythical Picks two weeks ago, I should be happy with a net breakeven for last week. But I’m not. I want more. And so, I shall press on with these picks even if I am but a voice crying in the wilderness…
Last week, the OVER/UNDER picks continued to stink like an outhouse an August. For the week, they were 2-6. That takes the season record for these picks to a nasty 30-41-2.
Last week the Against the Spread picks were an acceptable 6-2-2. [The Redskins and Chargers both pushed.] That brings the season record for ATS picks to 55-53-4.
I did not hurry to do the NFL version of Mythical Picks this week prior to the three Thursday games because none of the three games looked particularly interesting to me. In Wednesday’s rant when referring to this year’s slate of Thanksgiving Day games, I said, “the NFL games on Thanksgiving stink.” Now in the afterglow of the holiday and the turkey and the NFL games on TV, do you really want to argue with that assessment? The “close game” yesterday was the Cowboys’ pantsing of the Seahawks by 25 points.
Of course, no one will even consider using any information here as the basis for making a real wager involving real cash money on a football game. You would have to be mighty stupid to do anything like that – - so stupid in fact that if you ever received a brain transplant the odds are that the new brain would reject you.
General Comments:
Last week was not a good week to be a home team in the NFL. Home teams went 5-11 last week. That is the worst performance by home teams this year. I am sure there have been worse weeks in the history of the NFL, but I do not have the time or energy to go and look for them.
The Seattle Seahawks – prior to this season – had a home record of 42-14 over the last seven years. No other NFC team could match that. The Seahawks have traditionally played less well on the road than at home. However, in 2008, the Seahawks seem committed to “equal opportunity ineptitude”. As of today, the Seahawks are 1-5 on the road and they are 1-5 at home.
How bad is the AFC West? Consider the Oakland Raiders for just a moment. The Raiders are 3-8; they have been outscored by 86 points this season; their home record is an anemic 1-4. I am not picking on the Raiders here because the AFC West is so bad that the Raiders can still win the division. In fact, they could win it by as much as two full games. That shows you how bad the division is as a whole.
How bad is the NFC West? If you saw the Arizona Cardinals endure a ritualistic disembowelment last night at the hands of the Eagles, you saw the team that has run away with that division. One more Cardinals’ win or any loss by SF wraps up the NFC West division crown for the ever-so-slightly-better-than-mediocre Cardinals. That’s how bad the NFC West is.
Having now watched the Detroit Lions play twice this year, I do not think it is a all that much of a stretch to put them on the clock for the #1 pick in the draft in April. Yes, I know the Chiefs only have one win and could capture that “honor”, but let me project the Lions into that spot for just a moment here. So, ponder this:
The Lions – and whatever new front office team they present in April 2009 – would not dare to draft a wide receiver like Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin with that pick. Or would they …?
There has been much discussion on ESPN about who is in the running for MVP this year. The talking heads have trotted out the “usual suspects” – mostly QBs with Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson and Albert Haynesworth getting perfunctory mention. Here in Curmudgeon Central, I observe the world through the other end of the telescope and so I would like to suggest that “Pacman” Jones is a candidate for MVP. Look at the facts; the Titans cut his sorry ass and the Titans started off the season 10-0 and are now 11-1. Addition by subtraction…
Randy Galloway is a columnist for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram; here is his assessment of the reinstatement of “Pacman” Jones to the Cowboys after his alcohol rehab:
“PacRat doesn’t have a drinking problem. He’s got a stupid problem. You can’t rehab stupid, OK?”
How bad is the Broncos’ defense – - having just found a way to lose to the Raiders? Consider a stat I ran across in the Denver Post:
JaMarcus Russell’s career completion percentage against the Broncos – in three games – is 70.5%.
JaMarcus Russell’s career completion percentage against teams not named the Broncos is 49.8%.
Now, before you attribute the Broncos’ mediocrity solely to the defense, consider this about their supposed high-powered offense led by the QB whose arm is stronger than John Elway’s was:
Since Sept 21, the Broncos have played four home games. In not a single one of those games have the Broncos scored more than 17 points.
The San Diego Chargers’ season has fallen far short of the Super Bowl expectations that the team cultivated and their fans rather expected. The fans seem to be abandoning team in droves and the Chargers now face the possibility of blackouts in their local viewing areas. The NFL granted the Chargers and extension of time to sell about 1000 tickets to this Sunday’s game against the Falcons to avoid a blackout. There are reports that there are several thousands of unsold tickets in the hopper for next Thursday night’s game against the Raiders. It will be interesting to see if these tickets find buyers.
Quick Quiz: (Answer below)
Who is the only NFL QB to throw a TD pass in every game his team has played this season?
In last week’s win over the Rams, the Chicago Bears’ defense only gave up 14 yards rushing. With five minutes left to play, the Rams had only 5 yards on the ground for the day. The Bears face the Vikings this week and the winner will lead the division by a game. If the Bears win, they will have swept the Vikes thereby holding the tiebreaker. This week’s game is important to both teams. In addition, if the Bears win, they could start a run to the playoffs because they have a relatively soft December schedule with 3 home games (Jax, New Orleans, and Green Bay) and a final game trip to Houston.
Since I mentioned the Rams above, in their last three losses – - none particularly close – - the Rams have trailed their opponents at halftime by a combined score of 99-6.
Here is the answer to the Quick Quiz:
Kurt Warner.
The Games:
SF at Buffalo – 6.5 (42.5): Here is yet another west coast team traveling to the Eastern Time zone. No west coast team has won a game with that geographical overlay all season long. I do not see that changing here. Buffalo needs this game to stay “playoff relevant”. Was Trent Edwards’ outburst against the Chiefs last week more than a single game event? This week could tell us something about that because the Niners’ pass defense is hardly robust. I like the Bills to win and cover here. I also like this game OVER.
Baltimore – 7 at Cincy (36): The Ravens beat the Bengals in Baltimore earlier this year by 7 points and the Bengals have had ten days to get ready for this game. But you never know what kind of performance you will get from Cincy – particularly against this kind of defense. Do not bet this game for real. My coin flip says that I should take the game OVER.
Indy – 4.5 at Cleveland (45): I think that the Colts are beginning to come on and I think that the Browns have been over-rated from the start of the season. If Derek Anderson expects to be a starting QB in the NFL, he needs to show that he can actually play the position and that last season was not an anomaly based on weak opponents. The Indy defense is not much better than average. Cleveland is only 1-5 at home this year. I want the Colts here and I’ll lay the points.
Carolina at Green Bay – 3 (42): The Panthers were pummeled by the Falcons last week. The Packers were pummeled by the Saints last week. Green Bay needs a win to stay within a game of the division lead; Carolina is tied for the division lead at the moment with Tampa and has Atlanta just a game behind so they need a win too. I am tempted to take the Panthers here but they really do not play all that well on the road so I will resist that temptation. I’ll take the game OVER.
Miami – 8.5 at St. Louis (45): Make no mistake; the Rams stink. But before I mindlessly bet against them here, consider that the Dolphins were spanked last week and have a division rival (Bills) coming up next week. Miami is the better team, but they are not yet so good that they can just show up and cover two scores against even a team as bad as the Rams. Supposedly, Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson will be back for the Rams this week – meaning the Rams will have at least two quality players dressed for the game. That line is fat; I’ll take the Rams with the points here.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay – 3.5 (47): The NFC South race is nowhere near decided but a loss for the Saints here will put them three games out of the lead with only four games left to play. Just to clarify, that is not a good thing. In their first meeting this year, the Saints handled the Bucs but here is the stat that sways my thinking. The Bucs are 5-0 at home this year; the Saints are 1-4 on the road this year. I’ll take the Bucs and lay the points.
Giants – 4 at Washington (41.5): This could be the best game of the weekend – - unless the Bears/Vikes game or the Steelers/Pats game is better. This game means a whole lot more to the Redskins than it does to the Giants. At the moment, the Redskins are the second wild-card team in the NFC; given the Cowboys’ win yesterday, that will not be the case if they lose on Sunday. I expect a low scoring game so I’ll take the Skins with the points here. If you like the Giants, shop this line because you can find it at 3.5 in several places and even as low as 3 points at one of the Internet sports books.
Atlanta at San Diego – 5 (49): I do not understand this line. I really have no conviction either way as to how this game will unfold. I have consulted the Ouija Board and it says to take the Falcons with the points – - for mythical purposes only.
Denver at Jets – 9 (47.5): This line has yo-yoed all week starting out at 9 points, then sagging as low as 7.5 and then going back up to 9. The Jets have to suffer a small letdown after last week’s win over the previously undefeated Titans. Denver has to be smarting from their home loss to the Raiders last week. I’ll take the Broncos with the points here.
Pittsburgh at New England – 1.5 (39.5): This could be the best game of the weekend – - unless the Bears/Vikes game or the Giants/Skins game is better. New England is on an offensive roll but the Steelers’ defense is as good as it gets in the NFL this season. If the Pats win here, they will become serious contenders for the AFC East championship and a bye week in the playoffs because their next three games are at Seattle, at Oakland and Arizona at home. This game will be close and low scoring so I’ll take the Steelers with the points.
KC at Oakland – 3 (41.5): This is unquestionably the worst game of the weekend. Yes, I know I said above that the Raiders can still win the AFC West but when you step back and look at these teams, they both stink. Here is a trend item: Kansas City has won the last five times they played at Oakland. Can that trend item overcome the fact that the Chiefs are just plain awful and have a run defense so porous that the Raiders may not need to throw the ball more than 20 times all day? No, it does not. I want the Raiders to win and cover here.
Chicago at Minnesota – 3.5 (42): This could be the best game of the weekend – - unless the Steelers/Pats game or the Giants/Skins game is better. The winner here is in first place in the NFC North. The Vikings have a much tougher schedule after this weekend than do the Bears having to visit Arizona and then host Atlanta and the Giants. In their first game this year, these teams put 72 points on the scoreboard; that will not happen on Sunday night. I see this as a low-scoring game where both teams run the ball a lot and punt the ball often. I like the Bears with the points and I like the game UNDER.
Jax at Houston – 3.5 (48.5): No one would have called this line on this game back in August. Both teams are 4-7. Houston was projected to be a bit better than that; Jax was projected to be lots better than that. The Houston Texans have never hosted MNF since the franchise came into existence so the fans should indeed be rowdy on Monday night. So what. I still think Jax is the better team and Jax is 3-2 on the road this year as opposed to 1-5 at home. What’s up with that? I’ll take the Jags with the points here because I think they will win the game outright.
Finally, here is a comment from Jerry Greene in the Orlando Sentinel regarding the Dallas Cowboys’ auctioning off items from the locker room in Texas Stadium:
“But the item all true Cowboys fans should want is a genuine locker room toilet billed as ‘the throne of champions’ that comes with the entire stall intact. And the starting bid is a modest $300.
”Talk about the perfect gift for the man who has everything.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…