After another bad week of Mythical Picks, [I swear that I was not under the influence of any hallucinogens, narcotics, alcohol or amphetamines when I made those picks.] both kinds of picks are now under .500 for the season. The Over/Under picks are irredeemable; I need to make a strong showing in the Against the Spread Picks to go into the playoffs at or over .500 there. Of course, picking many of the games this weekend is not much more than coin flipping or dart throwing. Many of the NFL games this weekend are like the college bowl games; the winner depends on which team shows up ready to play more than anything else. Notwithstanding, I’ll make lots of mythical picks this weekend to try to get my record into better shape – - note that the emphasis here is on the word “mythical”.
Last weekend was the weekend to play the underdogs. The dogs covered the spread in 11 of the 16 games and they won 9 of the games outright. As you will see in the following paragraphs, I did not pick the underdogs last weekend…
Last week, the Over/Under picks were 4-3. That is better than a sharp stick in one’s butt, but that meager gain on the .500 level leaves the season total at 40-53-2. Bleech!
Last week, the Against the Spread picks were 5-8. Bleech! That puts the season total for ATS picks at 75-78-5. I guess the good news is that I do not need a telescope to see the .500 level from here…
Obviously, anyone with half a brain – - maybe even a quarter of a brain – - would use nothing in here as the basis for making any actual wager involving money on an NFL game this weekend. If anyone is even tempted to do so, then society in general can only hope that he/she will have the capacity to learn from his/her parents’ error and that he/she will always employ birth control measures should he/she find a like-minded individual of the opposite sex with whom intimate relations might occur. Thank you and good night…
General Comments:
Last weekend, the Detroit Lions became the first team in the history of the NBA to sport an 0-15 record; and they did so in a fashion befitting that level of ignominy. The Lions lost 42-7 to the Saints in a game that meant next to nothing to the Saints. That closed out the home season for the Lions; their 0-8 record at home is punctuated by the fact that in those 8 games, the Lions were outscored by a total of 176 points. Do the math; the Lions lost at home this season by an average of more than 3 TDs per game.
This week, the Lions are on the road in their attempt to dodge the futility of an 0-16 season. They visit Green Bay; the last time the Lions won in Green Bay was in 1991. The Lions have another level of shame that is easily attainable this year; going into this weekend’s game, the Lions have allowed opponents to score a total of 486 points; they are a mere 2 TDs away from going into “500 points allowed” territory. I do not know how many times that has happened in NFL history, but I’ll wager it is has been less than a half-dozen times.
Is there any good news for the Lions? Why, yes there is. The Packers have lost 5 consecutive games and are coming off a short week of practice after losing in OT to the Bears last Monday night. Sorry, Lions fans; that is the best I can come up with.
This week, the Lions’ owner, William Clay Ford, announced that the two folks who took over the front office after Matt Millen was dispatched earlier this year (Martin Mayhew and Tim Lewand) will continue in those capacities and run the team next year. Excuse me, but both of these guys were there during the Millen Era. That leaves you with two choices:
1. They were not part of any of the dumb decisions of that era which would force you to ask what the hell they were doing in their jobs while the team/franchise was falling apart around them.
2. They participated in those dumb decisions making them complicit in the actions that caused the team/franchise to fall apart around them.
I hope Lions fans are thrilled to have these two guys back for at least the 2009 season. With a game to play, the Lions are on the clock for the April NFL Draft. There are glaring needs on defense (obvious from the “points allowed stats” above) and the team needs a franchise QB. To my eyes, the best college QBs are juniors and I wonder if the thought of playing for the Lions would be enough to keep them in school another year…
If this retention of the front office does not pan out, William Clay Ford will have positioned himself perfectly to take over the role of the team owner least in touch with reality as soon as Al Davis is called back to the Mother Ship from the Xygork Nebula that is orbiting just behind the moon…
The Lions seek epic failure this weekend; flying under the radar are the Denver Broncos who can also achieve monumental failure this weekend. Denver led their division by 3 games with only 3 games left to play. If they lose this weekend in San Diego, they will lose the division and not make the playoffs. Again, I do not have data on this, but this big a “gag job” cannot have happened more than once or twice in the history of the NFL. In human eating terms, you would not gag this badly if you tried to swallow a softball as if it were an aspirin…
Compounding the Broncos’ shame if they lose this week is the fact that last week’s loss to Buffalo came at home against a team that had lost 8 of its last 10 games. Oh, and it was 1967 the last time the Bills won a game in Denver. To put historical perspective on that, in 1967:
Neil Armstrong was less widely known than Jack Armstrong.
John Lennon and Yoko Ono were not yet married.
Most people thought Jimmy Carter made “Little Liver Pills”.
George W. Bush had not yet graduated from Yale.
The Giants/Panthers game last weekend was a great game between two good teams. It would not bother me at all to see these two teams play again in the NFC playoffs in the divisional round or in the NFC championship game. The Carolina Panthers must have some kind of fixation on the concept of “300 yards rushing in a single game”. Three weeks ago against Tampa, the Panthers ran for 299 yards; last week against the Giants, the Panthers gave up 301 yards rushing.
The Giants/Panthers game last weekend is an example of why I do not like fantasy football – - or any other fantasy sport. De Angelo Williams scored 4 TDs for the Panthers last weekend and ran for more than 100 yards in the game. A former colleague sent me a note saying that Williams had won a “fantasy playoff game” for him last week. Swell. The Panthers lost the game (reality) but Williams’ stats make him a hero in winning a game (fantasy). Pffft. I prefer to deal with reality, thank you…
If fantasy football were to be taken really seriously, then there should be real fantasies associated with it such as the Arizona Cardinals playing the Cleveland Browns in the Super Bowl. Now, there is a fantasy…
Last year, the Bengals won their final two games. Some may have taken from that “late surge” that positive things would happen this season. Well, the Bengals are 3-11-1 going into their final game this week and they have won two in a row – - once again. As bad as the Bengals have been this year, the Browns, whom the Bengals beat last weekend, have gone into an epic tailspin. The last time the Browns scored an offensive TD was on November 17; the Browns went three consecutive home games without scoring a TD. Both the Browns and the Bengals need lots of “renovation” work…
Despite these two pathetic AFC teams, the AFC leads the NFC in terms of interconference games this year 32-29-1. Since there are only two such games this weekend, the AFC will finish above .500 once again. The last time the NFC won this “battle” was in 1995. Here is how long ago that was:
The Lions were a playoff team in 1995.
Since Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan will start for the Ravens and Falcons this week, they will join a pretty exclusive club of QBs who have started every game in their rookie NFL season. Both Flacco and Ryan will have winning records; I do not recall any previous rookie QB who started every game doing that. I recall Peyton Manning starting every game as a rookie; his record was 3-13. I also recall David Carr starting every game as a rookie; his record was 4-12. I cannot recall any other rookie QB starting every game for his team. In Ben Roethlisberger’s wonderful rookie year, he was 13-0 in games he started.
I tend to put more stock in player talent than in “coaching genius” when it comes to NFL success. Nevertheless, I do have to say that Jeff Fisher and his staff have to made some kind of contribution to the success of the Titans this year. Looking at talent alone, I really do not think the Titans are as talented as the Steelers or the Colts in the AFC nor do I think that the Titans have more talent than the Cowboys, the Panthers or the Giants in the NFC. Nevertheless, the Titans have the best record in the NFL (13-2) so there has to be a significant “coaching component” at work there.
The Jets can still make the playoffs – with a win and some help. The Arizona Cardinals will host a playoff game in January. Look at the way these teams have been playing in December and ask yourself if you see a “Super Bowl run” for either team. I do not.
Drew Brees needs to throw for 402 yards against Carolina this week in order to break Dan Marino’s single season record for most passing yardage (5,084 yards). Carolina really wants to prevent that because a Carolina loss to the Saints (could happen if Brees throws for 400+ yards) and a Falcons win over St. Louis (looks like a safe bet here) would mean the Falcons win the NC South and get the bye week instead of the Panthers. For the record, I do not think this is going to happen this weekend.
If the Pats, Ravens and Dolphins win this week, the Pats will wind up 11-5 and will miss the playoffs. Only once, has a team had an 11-5 record and missed the playoffs. That was in 1985 and the team was the Denver Broncos. Pretend that you care…
The Games:
St. Louis at Atlanta – 14.5 (44): The Rams are a mess; they have lost 9 games in a row. Assuming that the team is not sold and moved elwewhere, this franchise will need to be deconstructed entirely and rebuilt under the auspices of a “football architect” and not a “business guy” or a “marketing/communications flack”. A Rams’ loss here would put perfect symmetry on their season; it would yield a 1-7 record at home and a 1-7 record on the road. The Falcons could win the division and claim a first round bye in the playoffs with a Carolina loss and a win here. There might be some “scoreboard peeking” going on here. As bad as the Rams are – and they are bad – I really do not want to take the Falcons in a three score game; equally, I do not want to take the Rams on the road. Therefore, the coin is flipped and it says to take the game OVER. Whatever…
New England – 6.5 at Buffalo (41.5): Despite the rally to win in Denver last weekend, the Bills are hugely disappointing in the second half of this year. The Pats must win – and get help – to make the playoffs. New England seems to have put itself on track the past three weeks; Buffalo’s express seems to have derailed sometime in mid-October. I’ll take the Pats to win and cover on the road and I’ll take the game OVER.
KC at Cincy – 3 (38): The combined record of these two teams is 5-24-1. The Bengals have won 2 in a row; the Chiefs have lost 3 in a row but have been competitive more times than not in the second half of the season. Other than those two comments, it might be difficult to explain the point of this game. It has been a LOOONG time since either team was “in the hunt” for a playoff spot; in fact, once we got near Halloween, it was clear that Ralph Nader had a better chance to carry more than one state in the presidential election than either of these teams had to be in the playoffs. I’m guessing the stadium will be half-full at best. I like the Chiefs with the points here and I like the game OVER.
Detroit at Green Bay – 10 (43): NFL Films is treating this like a playoff game; Steve Sabol says they will have three times the number of people at this game (six camera operators) to film it as they would normally have. A Lions loss here “on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” will be historic. Do not discount the Packers’ 5-game losing streak; only the Lions, Rams and Browns have losing streaks of 5 or more games and those are three bad football teams. I do not want to go all “Weather Channel” on you here, but at this time of the year, the Lions (a dome team) could be playing in temperatures hovering in the single digits with the wind blowing. The line looks fat to me; I’ll take the Lions with the points – - but not on the money line! – - the Lions are actually going to have an 0-16 record for 2008. I’ll also take the game OVER.
Chicago at Houston – 3 (47): Chicago has to win in order to have a chance at the division title; the Bears can make the playoffs as a wild card team with a win here and losses by both the Cowboys and the Bucs. Houston players are already planning which New Years’ Eve party they want to go to. I guess the Texans are favored because they are 5-2 at home this year; there is no motivational reason to give Chicago the points here. The Bears were fortunate to come away with a win over the Packers on Monday; they did not dominate the game. I want to believe that somehow Lovie Smith can come out of his languor long enough to get the Bears fired up for this game. Based on that belief, I’ll take the Bears with the points and I’ll take the game UNDER.
Tennessee – 3 at Indy (38): Amazingly, other games this weekend will attract more attention than this one. Tennessee has the best record in the NFL (13-2); the Colts are 11-4 and have won 8 games in a row. Tennessee is locked into the top seed in the AFC playoffs; Indy is locked into the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. Do the teams rest their starters here – - or do they follow the Giants/Pats model from the final game of 2007 where both teams played to win that particular game? Jeff Fisher has indicated that Vince Young will see the field at some time in this game so maybe Tennessee will play this one close to the vest. I’ll take Indy at home with the points here and I’ll take the game OVER.
Giants at Minnesota – 7 (42): The Vikings are looking at “win and you’re in”. The Giants locked up the home field advantage in the NFC playoffs last Sunday night. That is the only reason I can see for the Vikings to be a touchdown favorite in this game. However, Tom Coughlin is the personification of “old school” and I would not be surprised if he did not play his starters most if not all of the game and be on them to play hard all game long. The Giants are the better team here so I’ll take the Giants with the points.
Carolina – 3 at New Orleans (52): The Saints are 6-1 at home; the Panthers are only 3-4 on the road. If the Panthers want next weekend off to rest up for the playoffs, they need to win here and not hope for a miracle win by the Rams against the Falcons. I think the ball will go up and down the field here so I’ll take this game OVER.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh – 10.5 (32): Can the Browns possibly go another game without scoring an offensive TD? Against this defense, the answer is a resounding, “Yes!” The problem with the line here is that the Steelers do not score very much themselves so a double-digit line is scary. However, the Browns will play Bruce Gradkowski at QB with Ken Dorsey in the wings against a Steelers’ defense that can score by itself and can set up short field situations for the Steelers’ offense. I’ll take the Steelers and lay the points here; I’ll also take this game OVER because I think there is a reasonable chance that the Steelers will take it OVER all by themselves.
Oakland at Tampa Bay – 14 (39): Looking for a story line here is not an easy task. Maybe it is another installation of the Al Davis/Jon Gruden confrontations? That might work but the thread is getting worn badly there. Oakland rose up and won a game last week despite the fact that they were heavy underdogs. That will not happen again this week; if the Bucs lose, they could miss the playoffs. I am going to assume that the Raiders return to their somnambulant state on Sunday and that the Bucs defense returns to form. Nonetheless, that is a fat line indeed; the Bucs are not an offensive juggernaut. I’ll take the Raiders with the points here.
Jax at Baltimore – 13.5 (36): The Ravens clinch a playoff spot with a win here or a loss by the Pats; Jax is still trying to figure out what happened to them this year. Joe Flacco earned a cool $3M in bonus money this season by taking 80% of the offensive snaps for the Ravens. Not bad for a kid who was not good enough to be the starter at Pitt, no? I doubt that Jax will win the game here but that line looks awfully fat to me. I’ll take the Jags with the points here and I’ll take the game OVER.
Miami at Jets – 2.5 (42): No need to look for a story line here; a bunch of them jump up and bite you on the nose. Miami wins the AFC East with a win here. The Jets win the AFC East with a win here and a Bills win over the Pats. Chad Pennington returns to NYC to play the team that dumped him when they acquired Brett Favre. The late start for this game means the Jets will already know if they have a reason to play to win other than “pride”. The Green Bay Packers are rooting hard for the Jets here. If the Jets make the playoffs, the Packers upgrade the draft pick they got for Brett Favre from a third round pick to a second round pick; if the Jets go to the Super Bowl, the Packers get a first round pick. If the Jets lose, how long until the “Brett Favre Retirement Watch” begins? I say less than 12 hours… I like the Dolphins with the points here and I like the game UNDER.
Dallas at Philly “pick ‘em” (42.5): The spread for this game varies from “pick ‘em” to the Eagles as a 2-point favorite. Both teams are schizophrenic. If the good version of either team shows up against the bad version of the other team, this could be a 3 score blowout. Everyone knows about Dallas’ problems in December/January over the past decade. The Eagles have contributed to those problems; they have played the Cowboys five times in December in this millennium and won all five times. If the Raiders pull a huge upset in Tampa and either the Bears or Vikes lose, this game will decide who gets the last NFC playoff slot – - the one the Giants had last year on their trek to the Lombardi Trophy. Both teams will know the outcome of all those games early on here. I like Philly at home here. I also like this game OVER.
Seattle at Arizona – 6 (45.5): This line opened at 3.5 points and shot up to 6 points and has stayed there most of the week. No, I have no explanation for that… The Cards host a playoff game next week; that is a good thing for them; they are not very good on the road (3-5). A win for Arizona here will give them a 6-0 sweep of their NFC West rivals; a quick glance will tell you that they only teams they beat on the road are the sorry-assed teams in the NFC West. I think the Seahawks spent their emotion last week in Mike Holmgren’s final home game in Seattle so I’ll take the Cards and lay the points here. And I’ll take the game OVER too.
Washington at SF – 3 (38): This is a meaningless game; the team that cares less will lose. I think the Redskins will just go through the motions here so I’ll take the Niners at home and lay the points.
Denver at San Diego – 9.5 (51): The spread for this game varies from 8 points to 9.5 points depending on where you look. The reason this game matters so much is because of the “Ed Hochuli blown call” in Week 2 of this season. That was a Denver/San Diego game and Denver won a game they should not have won. I suspect the folks in the NFL offices have had this game circled on the schedule for a while with a note saying “Do Not Assign Hochuli’s Crew Here”. The winner of this game wins the AFC West and will host the Colts in a playoff game next weekend. Here is a marginally interesting fact; the Broncos finished their home season 0-7-1 against the spread; they are the only team in the NFL not to cover at home this year. I like the Chargers to win here but the line looks fat to me so I’ll take the Broncos with the points and I’ll take the game OVER.
Finally, here is something you need to know. I read that in the Sun Bowl game (December 31) between Pitt and Oregon State, the halftime entertainment will feature The Village People. Candidly, I did not know that The Village People were all still vertical and taking nourishment but that is not the point here. Hopefully, they will not be asked to sing the National Anthem too. However, just in case, tune in a bit late to this game if you really think you need to watch it at all…
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…