I prepared these Mythical Picks early this week and using mid-week betting lines because I will be offline until some time early next week. Please, everyone, have a Happy New Year. And in order to have that Happy New Year, please take care with regard to your celebrations on New Year’s Eve. Stay well, everyone. See you next week…
Last weekend was a good weekend for Mythical Picks and got the Against the Spread north of .500 for the regular season. That did not look “probable” going into the final weekend of the regular season. But all of that gets wiped clean now that the second season is about to happen. Well, that’s what I keep telling myself.
The Over/Under Picks last week were 7-6, which would have been marginally profitable if picked for real and for the same amount of money on each pick. However, the season total for Over/Under picks was a thoroughly fetid 47-59-2.
The Against the Spread picks last week were 8-4-2. The Lions plus 10 pushed and the Niners minus 3 also pushed. The final regular season record for the Against the Spread Picks was 83-82-7.
As per usual, I must try to dissuade anyone from using any information here to decide how to wager on any NFL game this weekend. I will try to dissuade them by telling them they would be really dumb to do so – - dumb enough to think that Stalin, Roosevelt, Churchill and Truman were the “Big Three”.
General Comments:
I must begin this week’s comments by correcting an error I made in Tuesday’s rant regarding the playoff possibilities in the NFC. I said that the Bears shot at the playoffs had been rendered moot when the Vikings won their game on a last second field goal. That was not correct. A reader – one of the Las Vegas pilgrims – pointed out to me that the Bears still could have made the playoffs with a win in their game AND a win by the Eagles over the Cowboys. In that case, the Bears would have been the #6 seed in the NFC playoffs. In going through the standings/records, I had completely missed that possibility. Mea culpa.
Last week, I noted that the Lions would likely give up more than 500 points in a season and that kind of defensive incompetence had to be a rare occurrence. Actually, I was too lazy to go and look for just how rare it actually was but soon after my note hit the streets, I got an e-mail from a gentleman in Houston who is a sports fan extraordinaire, a statistics guru and for all I know a judge of fine whiskey too. Based on his information, here is what the Lions had in front of them as they began their game on Sunday.
The Lions had already given up 486 points in 2008. Only three teams in the history of the NFL had done worse for a full season. In 1980, the Saints gave up 487 points. Therefore, the Lions needed a shutout – - try to stifle your giggling here – - to stay in the fourth spot in that ignominious list.
The 1966 NY Giants surrendered 501 points in that season. While that may not seem so much worse than what the Saints had done, consider that the Giants did this in only 14 games – their record for 1966 was 1-12-1. The NY Giants surrendered an average of 35.8 points per game over an entire season. The fact that they walked off the field not as losers twice in that season is astounding.
The 1981 Baltimore Colts own the record for defensive futility in terms of points allowed in an NFL season giving up 533 points in 16 games (33.3 points per game). Their season record was 2-14.
Sunday, the Lions ceded 31 points to the Packers bringing their season total to 517 points putting them second all time in terms of points allowed for a season. Because the Lions were 0-16 for the season, people will likely forget this aspect of their ineptitude. Describing the Lions’ season in 2008 as a piece of crap insults the excretory systems of every person who ever lived on Planet Earth.
For 2009, the Lions will reduce ticket prices for some of the general tickets and will institute “significant price reductions” for premium/club seats. It seems as if someone in the Lions’ front office has acknowledged the tyranny of the Law of Supply and Demand. The Lions did not sell out five of their last six home games – they did sell out on Thanksgiving Day – and the Lions had increased ticket prices for 2008. After the putrid showing this year, the only way to increase demand for tickets would be a price decrease and it seems as if the front office got the message.
The Raiders have not yet fired Tom Cable as their coach as I am typing these words. While it will be no surprise to learn that Cable needs to find another position next season, let me also say that anyone who tries to make a living by reading Al Davis’ mind will probably wind up living in a refrigerator box under a bridge somewhere. Nevertheless, if Davis does indeed fire Cable, there will definitely be reports recalling that Jim Fassel wrote a letter to Davis about six weeks ago saying that he [Fassel] would like to be considered for the position as the Raiders’ coach. Let’s leave alone the cheesiness of that act and think about another aspect here.
How many writers/talking heads/sports radio hosts will write/say something that plays on the potential that Fassell will be working for “a fossil” when he coaches the Raiders? If the Over/Under for that sort of lines is 99.5, I just wrote number one…
I’m sure you have heard that police – with a search warrant in hand – found what they described as “a small cache of weapons and ammunition” at the home of Plaxico Burress in New Jersey. Weapons reportedly included a rifle with ammunition, the clip for a .45 weapon and a 9mm handgun according to police reports. According to the reports, it was not clear that all of these weapons were registered properly. And therein lies the potential for stupidity taken to a cosmic proportion.
Burress has a high-powered criminal lawyer for his case – one that involves him allegedly shooting himself in the leg with an unregistered handgun. How Burress failed to tell the attorney that he had other weapons in his home and the registration status of each and every one of them is jaw-droppingly stupid. It is inconceivable that the attorney “forgot to ask” his client about the possible existence of such items in Burress’ possession.
Flying a tad under the radar for Burress at the moment is another report that he is being sued by a woman because he rear-ended her car in an accident last May in Broward County, Florida. Burress was driving his $140K Mercedes at the time and – hold your breath – it was uninsured because he never got around to paying the premium for the insurance. If aliens come to Earth to abduct a specimen and accidentally take Plaxico Burress with them, they will not get a representative sample of the general intelligence of the human race.
Bad things supposedly happen in threes; stand by for the next installment in the Plaxico Burress Saga. Don’t even try to conjure up what level of stupidity the next event may testify to; the possibilities are endless.
The Pats have now won 12 consecutive games in the month of December after shutting out the Bills 13-0 last Sunday. The Bills have now lost 11 straight games to the Pats – no matter when they have been played – and have been outscored in those losses by a total of 321-96.
When the Colts scored 23 points on the Titans’ defense last Sunday, it was only the third time this season that the Titans gave up more than 17 points in a game. There are two ways to win; go out and score 40 points every game or prevent your opponent from scoring more than 14 points in a game. Either way will usually let you walk off the field victorious.
I know that a strict-constructionist reading of the NFL rule concerning end-zone celebrations makes it “illegal” for Wes Welker to have done a snow-angel after catching a TD against the Cardinals in that snow-game just before Christmas. But a $10K fine seems a bit excessive to me… Here is a way to put a cap on end-zone celebrations if indeed that is a goal that the league feels it has to pursue:
Upon scoring a touchdown, the player may do one of two things with the ball:
1. He may hand the ball to an official and walk/run to the bench area.
2. He may drop the ball to the ground – not throw it to the ground – and walk/run away from it to the bench area.
Any celebration of any kind outside the bench area will result in a 15-yard penalty on the ensuing kickoff AND the ejection of the player for the next 4 quarters of football. If that ejection carries over to playoffs or the next season, so be it.
The Playoff Games:
Please note that all four of the visiting teams – the wild card teams – are favored this week or the game is “pick ’em”. It is not all that unusual for the #5 seed – the best of the wild card teams – to be favored over the #4 seed – the worst of the division champs. However, it is unusual for both #6 seeds to be favored over both #3 seeds.
Atlanta – 1.5 at Arizona (51): At least the Cardinals do not have to venture to the East Coast for this game. If you count Charlotte NC as being on the East Coast, then the Cards have traveled there 5 times this year and have gone 0-5 for their troubles. In those 5 games, the Cards gave up 202 points. In fact, the only wins on the road for the Cards all season long were against the three miserable teams with them in the NFC West. Fans in Arizona must think this playoff game is a mirage; the game is not sold out as of Wednesday. I doubt the team of the league would allow it to be blacked-out in Arizona, but you do have to wonder how tix are still available for the first home playoff game since the team moved to Arizona. [Actually, it is the first Cards’ home playoff game since 1948.] I really think that the Falcons are the better team here despite a rookie QB and playing on the road. I also think the winner of this game will need to score more than 30 points. I like the Falcons to win and cover here and I like the game OVER.
Indy at San Diego “pick ‘em” (51): Both teams started very slowly this year. The Chargers maintained their funk until December and then have played very good football; the Colts came around sometime in late October. This game started the week with the Colts as a 1 point favorite and you can still find that line at a couple of the sportsbooks. The Chargers have faced Tyler Thigpen, Jeff Garcia and Jay Cutler at QB in the last three weeks. No offense to any of those gentlemen, but this week they have to face Peyton Manning and that is a different assignment altogether. Unless I have counted incorrectly, the Chargers are 0-5 against teams that made the playoffs this year. Just to clarify, that is not good. I like the visiting Colts here to win the game and I like the game OVER.
Baltimore – 3 at Miami (38): Which Cinderella story will end this weekend? The Joe Flacco saga in Baltimore or the Dolphins about-face from 1-15 last year to the playoffs this year? Both teams have played well for the past several weeks. Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Willis McGahee all return to Miami – the scene of their college successes back when the Hurricanes were relevant in college football. I like the Ravens to win and cover here and I like this game UNDER.
Philly – 2.5 at Minnesota (41.5): If the Eagles play the way they did against the Redskins just before Christmas, they will lose this game by 3 TDs. If the Eagles play the way they did against the Cowboys last week, they will win this game by 3 TDs. Surprisingly, there are still tix available in Minneapolis for this game. One key to this game will be the Eagles’ ability to hold Adrian Peterson in check and thereby to force Tarvaris Jackson to try to beat them. Another key to this game is whether or not Donovan McNabb has an accurate day throwing the ball. The Eagles – even with Brian Westbrook – do not figure to run the ball very effectively against the Vikings’ defensive line. Purely on a hunch, I’ll take the Eagles to win and cover here and I’ll take the game OVER.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…