The Sports Curmudgeon®

Despite the utter lack of an outcry for me to bring this feature back for another year, I am going to do it anyway. The reason is simple. I enjoy writing these things.

I doubt that I will be able to do one of these every week of the college football season. I still have a lot of travel on my calendar despite the fact that I basically lived out of a suitcase for most of the summer. In fact, I have been away from Curmudgeon Central for the past week and so this was written very early using lines that could easily change in the intervening time. I will try to write as often as possible; and like last year, I will keep the NCAA and the NFL Mythical Picks separate.

Of course, no one should ever use any information in these rants as the basis for a decision to make a wager on a specific game or as the basis for what side to back in such a wager – - if the wager were to involve actual money. Only a dumbass would do that. In fact, he/she would have to be so stupid that he/she would likely try out for the goalie position on a darts team.

Yes, I will continue to follow the fortunes of Linfield College where there has not been a losing season in football since 1956. The Wildcats only play 9 games in a season and this year 5 of them are on the road. In addition, two of their out of conference games will be against “ranked opponents”. Putting that 54th consecutive winning season in the books is hardly a sure thing. Their season does not start until September 12 so they have another week of practice to get ready. Go Wildcats…

General Comments:

There is a long tradition of schools padding their schedules with cream-puff games out of conference to assure gaudy records at the end of the season. I don’t pretend to have done exhaustive research on all the schools and all of their schedules, but here are a few “name schools” (in alphabetical order to avoid any hint of favoritism here) that seem to have chosen some pretty meager fare in their non-conference opponents:

Arkansas: Missouri St., Texas A&M, Eastern Michigan, Troy

Kansas St. UMass, La-Lafayette, UCLA, Tennessee Tech

Mississippi: SE Louisiana, UAB, Northern Arizona

Northwestern: Towson, Eastern Michigan, Miami (Ohio), Syracuse

Penn State: Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Eastern Illinois

Rutgers: Howard, Florida International, Maryland, Army

Texas: La-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, Central Florida

Wisconsin: Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, Hawaii

Note that Kansas State has UCLA on this year’s schedule but with the return of Bill Snyder to the coaching seat, is should not surprise anyone that K-State is trying to buy its way out of that game for 2010. The LA Daily News had that tidbit earlier this summer. If Snyder gets his way, he will schedule Obesity International in place of UCLA…

There were also reports earlier this year that ESPN wanted to set up a game between Texas and Wisconsin as a prime inter-regional game. The game will not happen supposedly because neither team was willing to give up one of its seven home games this year. You can see above three of Wisconsin’s “can’t miss home games”; they travel to Hawaii; they are home for the other three games. Meanwhile Texas could not possibly do without any of their three out of conference home games (Wyoming is the game on the road). Please remember this if either Texas or Wisconsin does not get into the bowl game that they want based on strength of schedule…

On the other hand, Miami University starts out the season with a killer schedule – - unlike any of the teams above. Their first four games are against Florida State, Ga Tech, Va Tech and Oklahoma. Wow!

There is an adage in college football that “returning experience” portends a good season. It also helps when the players who are returning with that experience are pretty good to begin with and that leads me to point out that Arkansas started 10 freshmen last season and went 5-7 against an SEC schedule. Arkansas might be very good this year and next year…

It should not be news to anyone who has been conscious for the past couple of weeks that Greg Paulus will start at QB for Syracuse this year after playing out his basketball eligibility at Duke. Paulus was a highly recruited high school QB from the western NY area four years ago but he chose to play basketball. He is exploiting a loophole in the NCAA rules to do that and I think that is great for him. He will not have an NFL career as a QB and he is unlikely to have an NBA career of note either; but he can continue to have an NCAA athletic career.

Will this make a difference for Syracuse this year? Probably not. But it does seem as if Syracuse and Greg Paulus are made for each other. Neither has played major college football for the last four years…

If I gaze into a crystal ball and look for teams that ought to be “tougher outs” in 09 than they were in 08, here are a few that I see:

Arkansas: See three paragraphs above.

Auburn: The offense has to be better – - doesn’t it?

Michigan: Favorable schedule including Delaware State who is foregoing a conference game to go to Ann Arbor for a payday.

North Carolina: Butch Davis knows what he is doing.

Notre Dame: All the difficult games are in South Bend but beware Nevada in the season opener…

Note that I do not have Boise State on this list. That is because Boise State is now a consistently good football team. They are now the Gonzaga of college football; they should not surprise anyone; they are always a good team.

If I gaze into a crystal ball and look for teams that ought to be “not as good” in 09 as they were in 08, here are a few that I see:

Maryland: Tough schedule.

Missouri: Just about all the offensive production from last year is gone.

Oregon State: Lost their 2 best WRs and the entire defensive backfield.

If someone in the state of Washington finds an old lamp on the beach and a genie appears to give out three wishes, one might be for the state’s major football teams to do just a tad better this year than last. Washington was 0-12; Washington State was 2-11 with wins over Div 1-AA Portland State and – - Washington.

Absent that genie appearing, maybe these teams qualify under the Washington State law they call the Death With Dignity Act? I’m not sure what the teams might qualify for, but given last year’s results the teams certainly seemed to be dead and there was a dearth of dignity…

The Ponderosa Spread Games:

I try to keep track of what I call Ponderosa Spread games. The Ponderosa was the huge ranch (big spread, get it?) owned by the Cartwrights on the TV series, Bonanza. I define a “Ponderosa Spread” as 24 points or more. Last year the favorite went 46-28-3 against those huge numbers, which is very unusual. In most years, the favorites barely hold a winning record against “the number” in these games. This week we have 4 Ponderosa Games:

Akron at Penn State – 27 (58.5): A more interesting question is: Will the outcome of this game still be in doubt at the beginning of the second quarter?

W. Kentucky at Tennessee – 29.5 (44): That is an awfully large spread for a game where the total number is only 44 points. The Lane Kiffen era begins at UT. If the Vols don’t cover, there will be grumblings; if the Vols lose outright, Lane Kiffen will need to hire a food taster.

San Jose St. at USC – 34.5 (48): Here is another game with a very large spread relative to the total projected.

La-Monroe at Texas – 40 (61.5): This was one of the games Texas could not possibly cancel in order to play Wisconsin…

Games of Interest:

South Carolina at NC State – 4 (46): Good inter-conference sectional rivalry here. Based on venue and South Carolina’s spotty offense last year, I’ll take NC State and lay the points.

Oregon at Boise State – 5 (64): If Oregon wears those phosphorescent yellow uniforms on Boise State’s blue turf, the astronauts on the International Space Station might be able to see them. I’ll take the OVER here.

Western Michigan at Michigan – 11 (56): Rich Rodriguez needs a good start to the 09 season. They have a new addition to the stadium; it cost a lot; the boosters want to see winning football right away. I’ll take the OVER here.

Baylor at Wake Forest – 2 (53.5): I do not understand this line. Does it mean that Baylor is much better this year? Does it mean Wake Forest is not as good as it has been in recent years? Interesting game – - but no wager for me…

Nevada at Notre Dame – 14.5 (61): I said beware of Nevada up above. I do not like them to win the game outright, but with two TDs and a half-point hook, I’ll take Nevada with the points here.

BYU at Oklahoma – 22 (68): I like Oklahoma a lot but BYU is not a patsy. Just for the halibut, I’ll take BYU with this generous helping of points.

Miami at Florida State – 6 (48): A long time ago in a galaxy far away, this game was an annual war with the winner likely to be in the top 2 in the country. Not so anymore, but still a solid rivalry. I like FSU to win and cover here.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…