Talk about a boring week of mythical picks, the picks against the spread (ATS) were 6-7 while the Over/Under picks were 3-3. That is about what one might expect from a coin-flipping exercise but I promise that I only did that on those couple of games where I had no opinion whatsoever regarding the outcome. Alexander Pope said, “Hope springs eternal in the human breast.” What I am hoping for this week is for 60% of these picks to be in the “plus column”.
Some comments on last week’s Mythical Picks:
1. I took the Bengals to win and cover at home against the Broncos and it took the Bengals more than 59 minutes to get on the scoreboard. Blech…
2. I thought the Ravens’ offense might not be ready yet so I took the Ravens/Chiefs game Under 36. The Ravens put it over all by themselves scoring 38 and the Chiefs managed to put 24 points up. Blech…
3. I called the Lions/Saints game as an offensive shoot-out. The two teams combined to score 72 points. [That’s the good news.] Unfortunately, I took the Lions with an insufficient helping of points. Blech…
4. I picked Seattle to win by 3 TDs. My bad; they won by 4 TDs. Yippee…
Of course no one should ever use any information here as part of a decision-making process on the subject of football wagering. Only a dumbass would think that I have some kind of inside pipeline to information that coaches and players want no one outside the locker room to know. In fact, if you were actually dumb enough to take these words and translate them into football wagers, you would probably also not see any problem associated with a Semi-Annual After-Christmas Sale.
Comments:
The Arizona Cardinals are the defending NFC champions; they played in the Super Bowl last year and only lost in the final 30 seconds. This is a franchise that has been “less than routinely successful” over the past 60 years; therefore, one might expect a surge in fan interest in the team now that the team played in last year’s ultimate game. If you think that way, welcome to the world of dashed expectations.
The Cardinals did not sell out their Opening Day game at home against a division rival quickly enough to avoid a blackout; the NFL had to give them a 72-hour extension to sell more tix. Look, I can understand sports fans in Phoenix staying home from Phoenix Coyotes games in the NHL, hockey and the desert southwest just don’t have a long history together. But football – and NFL football – ought to sell in Phoenix when there is a winning team in town. But evidently, it does not.
A “correspondent” attended the Eagles/Panthers game in Charlotte last weekend and he reports that there were thousands of “Eagles green jerseys” in the house there. Evidently, the Panthers coming off a 12-4 season last year had trouble filling the house on their own. After the way the Panthers stunk out the joint last Sunday, there may be a whole lot of empty seats in the stands there come December if things do not turn around quickly.
Speaking of the Eagles/Panthers game, the potential loss of Donovan McNabb as the Eagles’ QB for a short time could not have come at a better time for the Eagles. Here is their schedule over the next five weeks: Saints, Chiefs, BYE, Bucs, Raiders. That is not exactly “Murderer’s Row”. There is no comparably soft spot in the Eagles’ schedule later on…
The Bills lost last Monday night and a rather boneheaded play by kick-returner, Leodis McKelvin, probably cost the team a win. Later, McKelvin’s lawn in suburban Buffalo was vandalized; someone painted the final score on the lawn along with “an obscenity”. I understand that “fan” derives from the word “fanatic”, but that kind of behavior is simply over the line.
After the Rams lost their opener 28-0 to the Seahawks, you have to wonder what kind of pep talk rookie head coach Steve Spagnuolo gave to the team in the locker room after the game. Maybe something along the lines of:
“Men, we are not yet mathematically eliminated. We will be soon, but not just yet…”
The last time the Cleveland Browns scored an offensive touchdown, it was in their 10th game last season. Indeed, the Browns went 6 games without an offensive TD at the end of last year. In Sunday’s opener for the 2009 season, the Browns did score an offensive TD – - albeit with only 28 seconds left to play in the game and the team trailing by 3 TDs.
I recognize that the Saints have a good offense that can score lots of points, but if the Detroit Lions are not going to stop opponents more effectively than they did last weekend, the Lions are in for another season of “losses in the teens”. It may not be “sixteen losses”, but it could be “fourteen”…
When the Raiders drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey, many were skeptical about his ability to be an impact WR. Having seen him play at Maryland, I wondered if he had the hands to be a WR at the NFL level. By my count on Monday night – - and I don’t pretend to have a coach’s clicker or access to scouting tapes – - the Raiders threw him the ball twice; it hit him on both hands twice; he dropped the ball twice. Based on one game only, perhaps he thinks an “impact receiver” is one who has the ball make an impact on his facemask before trying to catch it? If this does not get better, he will be the Dick Stuart of the NFL…
The last time the Ravens allowed a running back to gain 100 yards in a game, it was the 2005 season and the running back was Larry Johnson. Last week, Johnson and the Chiefs came to Baltimore and the Ravens’ defense held Johnson to 20 yards on 11 carries. Conversely, the Chiefs’ defense had a few problems; they allowed the Ravens to gain 198 yards on the ground and they only got to QB, Joe Flacco, one time in Flacco’s 44 passing plays.
The Lions losing streak now stands at 18 games. That is the third worst losing streak of all time in the NFL. And a tie for second place is within their grasp this weekend. Two teams have lost 19 consecutive games – - the Raiders in 61/62 and the Chicago Cardinals in 43/45. With the Vikings up this week, the oddsmakers surely have the Lions in a position to join the Raiders and Cards on the Futility List.
Of course, the platinum standard for losing streaks in the NFL belongs to the Tampa Bay Bucs in their start-up seasons. The Bucs lost 26 games in a row. The Lions aren’t there yet, but they could eclipse that mark this year…
The Games
Carolina at Atlanta – 6 (43): The Panthers were just plain awful last week at home; now they hit the road this weekend. After marching smartly for a TD on its opening possession, the Panthers’ offense just stalled for the rest of the day. Atlanta handled what looks to be a good-if-not-great Miami team last week. Can the Panthers really be as bad as they looked against the Eagles last week? I doubt it. Nonetheless, I like the Falcons to win and cover.
St Louis at Washington – 10 (36.5): Historically, the Washington Redskins play down to level of their competition and this week they will have to reduce their level of efficiency and effectiveness significantly. And the Skins had better get used to that because their next two games after this one are at the Lions and hosting the Bucs. If Seattle can hold the Rams scoreless, the Skins should hold them to single digits even accounting for the fact that the Rams should be out to prove they are not amateurs in a pro league. Last year, the Rams were outscored by an average of 15 points per game; even if you assume their defense will be better this year – - not supported by data as yet – - this game is ripe for the Skins to roll up some big offensive numbers and scores. Assuming the Rams are held to single digits, I like the Skins to win and cover at home. If by some chance they lose to the Rams on Sunday, check to see if any unemployed NFL coaches are sitting in Danny Boy’s suite over the next couple of weeks; if such a coach is there, he might take over the team in the BYE week in October…
Houston at Tennessee – 6.5 (40.5): I know Houston laid an egg last week and should be out to prove they are better than they showed against the Jets. However, the Titans have something to prove too and they are at home and they are fundamentally the better team. I see the Titans rushing the ball very successfully here. I’ll take the Titans to win and cover.
New Orleans at Philly – 1 (46): I don’t know if Donovan McNabb will play or not. If not, is Jeff Garcia really ready enough to step in should Kevin Kolb falter? I expect the Eagles’ defense to put up more resistance than the Lions’ defense did to the Saints’ offensive machine this week and if McNabb were completely healthy, I’d take this game OVER in a heartbeat. As things are, I’ll take the game to go UNDER.
New England – 3.5 at Jets (45.5): This is a division game; this is a rivalry game; this is game where Mark Sanchez will be measured against the AFC East’s top incumbent QB. The hook here is interesting. I’ll take the Jets with the points. I also like this game OVER.
Oakland at KC – 3 (38.5): This has to be the worst game of the weekend. Neither team is going to threaten to join the ranks of the mediocre this season. The Chiefs put up a small struggle of sorts against a good Ravens’ team last week; the Raiders put up an actual struggle against a good Chargers’ team last week. Both teams should be able to run the ball on the other team meaning this will be a game with a limited number of possessions. I think it will be a close game and so I’ll take the Raiders with the points.
Arizona at Jax – 3 (43): Not only do the fans in Phoenix show a lack of respect for the defending NFC champs, the oddsmakers have them as a dog to a team that was 5-11 last year and one that only scored 12 points in their opener this year. To be fair, the Cards were awful in the Eastern Time Zone last year during the regular season getting blown out more than a couple of times there. For those who were not geography majors, Jacksonville is on Eastern Daylight Time this week. If the Cards don’t score, this game could be very low scoring so I’ll take the game UNDER. I’ll also take the Cards with the points just because I do not trust the Jags at all.
Cincy at Green Bay – 9 (42): The Bengals offense was AWOL last week and there is no way that the Bengals’ defense is going to carry the team to a lot of wins this year. The Green Bay defense was not great against the Bears but it was competent. Do not be fooled by the Packers’ 4 INTs, three of them were gifts and there could have been two others had the DBs made spectacular plays. I’m sensing a Packers’ blowout here so I’ll take the Pack and lay the points.
Minnesota – 9.5 at Detroit (46.5): If the Lions’ defense does not improve by 50% this week, they are going to be run out of their building by the Vikings. The only ray of hope here is that Brett Favre has never played all that well in Detroit; he has won plenty of games there but it is clearly not his favorite venue. Forget it; the Vikes will romp and stomp here. I’ll take the Vikes to win and cover.
Tampa at Buffalo – 5 (42): I read somewhere that this is the first time in the history of the Bucs’ franchise that they have played a game in Buffalo. And that may the single most interesting thing to note about this game. Assuming that the Bills are not depressed to the point of comatose, they should handle the Bucs offense and be able to move the ball efficiently. I cannot take Tampa on the road so I’ll take the Bills and lay the points.
Seattle at SF – 2 (39): Shop this line; it can vary all the way down to “pick ‘em”. I think the wrong team is favored here. I agree that SF is a team that is improving – - but so is Seattle. I like the Seahawks to win outright so I’ll take them here with the points.
Pittsburgh – 3 at Chicago (37): I know that the Steelers did not look like an offensive juggernaut in the opener, but that was against the Titans’ defense. The Bears defense is good, but with Brian Urlacher out it is nothing better than good. If Jay Cutler thought he saw too much pass pressure last week against the Packers, he will not be a happy camper this week. Pittsburgh wins on the road; the Bears fall to 0-2; the Chicago media goes into “full-meltdown mode”. I’ll take the Steelers to win and cover. I’ll also take the game OVER.
Cleveland at Denver – 3 (37.5): If Oakland/KC is not the worst game of the weekend, this one is. Here is the good news for the Browns: No one on the Broncos’ squad wears the number “7”. I cannot take the Browns on the road; I don’t want to take the Broncos and give points; I don’t like the total line even a little bit. Out comes the Ouija Board and the spirits have spoken. They said to take the game OVER. Why not? Remember, these are MYTHICAL picks.
Baltimore at San Diego – 3.5 (40): Again, I think the wrong team is favored. I like the Ravens to win the game outright and so those points are just gravy. I’m tempted by the total line, but not enough to play it. I’ll take the Ravens with the points.
Giants at Dallas – 3 (44): This is the best game of the week – - beating out Steelers/Bears and Pats/Jets. This line can only reflect the emotion that people think will infuse the Cowboys’ squad as they play their home opener in their new playpen. The Giants’ team is better; the Giants’ coaching staff is better. Emotion will carry the Cowboys to halftime, and then the Giants will assert themselves. The Cowboys gave up 150 yards rushing to the Bucs last week and the Giants can run the ball just a little bit… I’ll take this game OVER.
Indy – 3 at Miami (42): Miami really does need this game; they really do not want to be 0-2 and looking at a cross-country flight to play the Chargers next week. However, against the Falcons last week, the Dolphins did not score until there were 3 minutes left to play and the Falcons were up by “three scores”. I see the Colts’ defense being a bit less stingy than that, but I also see the Colts’ offense achieving more than 2 TDs for an evening’s work. I like the Colts to win and cover and I like the game OVER.
Finally, Greg Cote of the Miami Herald had this observation about the Dolphins’ off-season preparations for the 2009 season:
“The Dolphins’ next OTA (organized team activity) day is Tuesday. The fellas are scheduled to make clay pots and also learn macramé.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…