Well the college football world had quite a few surprises last weekend. Perchance, this week will regress to the mean and have the favored teams squash the less favored teams more frequently…
The Linfield College Wildcats took a major step forward in pursuit of the school’s 54th consecutive winning season in football. The Wildcats went on the road to play Occidental College – a team that was undefeated in the regular season last year – and Linfield came away with a 31-27 victory. That raises their record to 2-0 and leading to another road game against Southern Oregon this weekend. Southern Oregon is 1-2 going into that game. Go Wildcats!
Here are a few notes regarding last week’s Mythical Picks:
I said if UVa got clocked last week, it might make life really miserable for Coach Al Groh. Well, the Cavaliers kept it close; they lost by only 3 points. HOW-EVAH, they lost a 17-point lead in the process of losing the game by “only 3 points”.
I asked if the “Ralph Friedgen mystique” had worn off in College Park, MD. Well Maryland lost again last weekend – - for the second consecutive time – - to Middle Tennessee State. Maybe Coach Friedgen needs to put out an APB for his “mojo”?
I took Fresno State with points against Boise State – - but not nearly enough points. Not good…
I said Cal would handle Minnesota and they did. Good…
I took Oklahoma/Tulsa to go OVER. It would have been a lot better as a pick had Tulsa actually – you know – scored. Not good…
I took Navy/Pitt to go UNDER. The game did that comfortably. Good…
I took BYU to win and cover against Florida State. Not even close. Not good…
I took Arkansas to win and cover against Georgia. Not good…
Clearly, no one with a smidgen of intellect would use any information here as part of the basis for making a wager on a college football game that actually involved coin of the realm. If you did something like that, you probably would not be even slightly embarrassed to tell your friends that you don’t believe in superstition because it brings bad luck.
General Comments:
Kansas State opened their season winning a game 21-17 over Division 1-AA UMass and they were held scoreless for 3 periods of the game. In the second week, they lost outright to La-Lafayette. In week three, they lost to UCLA scoring all of 9 points. Maybe it wasn’t the coach last year that was the problem for K-State? Even Saint Bill of Snyder does not seem to be able to get these players to win very much…
Jahvid Best scored 5 TDs against Minnesota last week. He is averaging 137 yards per game and 7.8 yards per carry so far this year. Might it be time for a running back to win a Heismann Trophy?
It is time to say goodbye to the BYU Cougars and the Utah Utes for this season. Both lost last weekend removing themselves from BCS consideration. BYU was crushed by Florida State and Utah lost by a TD to Oregon. What nice parting gifts do we have for these teams, Johnny…?
However, Boise State is on the cusp of an undefeated season in the WAC…
I think we can proclaim that Purdue stinks this year. A loss to Northern Illinois is bad; trailing Northern Illinois at any point in the game by 21 points is really bad. I saw one report that said Northern Illinois is 2-31- 1 against Big Ten teams in forever. One of those wins was last weekend…
Iowa State had a 17 game road losing streak going into their game at Kent State last weekend. The Cyclones broke that streak…
Syracuse beat Northwestern last weekend reinforcing my idea that the Big Ten is in the midst of a serious downcycle as a conference.
Syracuse tries to extend itself to a two-game winning streak this weekend by playing Maine. That is scheduling legerdemain…
Not to worry, Syracuse is not the only school with a Division 1-AA cupcake on the schedule this week. Ok.State plays Grambling State; Baylor hosts Northwestern State, Duke hosts North Carolina Central and Tulsa hosts Sam Houston State. Don’s spend any time flipping through your satellite channels looking for these clunkers…
The Ponderosas:
Last week the favorites covered in 3 of the 6 Ponderosa Spread games. Michigan, Alabama and LSU covered. Florida, Oklahoma State and Penn State did not cover. By the way, that is the third straight week where Penn State has been a Ponderosa favorite and has failed to cover.
Favorites for the year are 8-9 in Ponderosa Spread Games.
This week we have five Ponderosa Spread Games.
UTEP at Texas – 36 (63): If Texas started – and played – Tiny Tim at fullback and Lowly Worm at halfback, they would probably still win this game outright. They will cover if Mack Brown decides he wants to put a “trophy score” out there for poll voters to look at…
Western KY at Navy – 28.5 (50): This game has the potential to get very ugly…
Ball State at Auburn – 33 (55.5): Ball State’s season has come apart at the seams and playing at Auburn is not the way to put things back together. The new Auburn offense will score a lot here. I wonder if Ball State will score in double digits…
La-Lafayette at Nebraska – 28 (53.5): Is this game truly necessary?
Washington State at USC – 46.5 (53.5): The oddsmakers don’t think Washington State is going to score very much here and it thinks that Pete Carroll will have his charges breathing fire at the kickoff. If USC is paying attention, this will be ugly from the git-go.
Games of Interest:
(Thurs Nite) Mississippi – 4 at South Carolina (53.5): I think this game will be a defensive game – - however, I also thought that would be the case in the Georgia/South Carolina game and was dead wrong – - and so I would play this game UNDER.
Minnesota at Northwestern – 1.5 (48.5): Just a hunch on a venue call here; I like Northwestern at home to win and cover.
Michigan State at Wisconsin – 3 (54): Michigan State has lost two in a row but Wisconsin is not nearly the offensive threat that Central Michigan or Notre Dame was. In fact, I did not see anything awe-inspiring in the Wisconsin attack against Fresno State even though the Badgers won the game. I think the wrong team is favored here; I’ll take Michigan State with the points.
Buffalo at Temple – 2.5 (45.5): Temple is favored in this game; that is hardly a commonplace situation. To commemorate the event, I’ll take Temple and lay the points…
Fresno State at Cincy – 17 (61.5): The Fresno scheduling philosophy is that they will play anyone anywhere anytime. That got them Wisconsin followed by Boise State and now Cincinnati for 2009. Ouch! Where is Quadriplegics U on this schedule? The last two games have been losses and this one is likely to be one too. However, that line looks fat to me so I’ll take Fresno State with the points.
Wake Forest at BC – 1.5 (41): Neither team is as good this year as they have been in recent years. Purely a venue call; I like BC to win and cover.
Rutgers – 1.5 at Maryland (51): Neither of these two teams is as good this year as they have been in recent years. In fact, Rutgers seems to be headed back to the level it occupied at the lower rungs of the college football chain five years ago while Maryland is well into a year that will get its coach fired. If either teams leads by 10 points in this game it is over because neither team has a catch-up offense. I’ll take the game UNDER.
Pitt at NC State – 1 (47): Pitt wins with defense and NC State does not score a lot. I like Pitt to win and cover here and I think I like the game UNDER.
Miami – 3 at Va Tech (47.5): This may be the best game of the weekend. Miami is poised to return to the national spotlight if they win here and then win next weekend against Oklahoma. Both teams have flaws so the question here is which team can exploit the other’s weaknesses most effectively. I know VA Tech QB, Tyrod Taylor, is an icon in Blacksburg; but I don’t think he is all that good. I’ll take Miami based on its defense stopping the Va Tech offense to win and cover.
Cal – 5.5 at Oregon (58): Cal has big time bowl aspirations – - but every year that they have them the Bears find a way to gag them up. Here is a “must win game” if Cal is going to have a shot at the Rose Bowl. I’ll take Cal to win and cover here – - and not get a bone stuck in their throat yet again this year. [cough, cough…]
Arizona State at Georgia – 12 (52.5): I think that Georgia is just bigger and faster than Arizona State so that makes me want to take the Bulldogs at home here. But that line is fat indeed … Beware!
Iowa at Penn State – 10 (40): Penn State has beaten three cupcakes handily – - but not convincingly. Iowa has won eight of the last ten meetings between these teams. Penn State has a revenge situation working for it here since Iowa cost Penn State and undefeated season and a shot at the BCS Championship Game last year – - a game the NIttany Lions were not likely to win. I would stay away from this game but if forced to take a side, I’d take the game OVER.
Texas Tech at Houston “pick ‘em” (73): Tech QB, Taylor Potts, has thrown 12 TD passes in the first three games of the year and one of them was against Texas. Houston QB, Case Keenum, has thrown 7 TD passes and accumulated more than 700 yards passing in his first two games this year. That’s a big total number, but I still like the game to go OVER.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…