Well, my hope of getting 60% of last week’s Mythical picks correct was off by more than a little bit. The ATS picks went 7-5 bringing the season totals to 13-12. However, the Over/Under picks went far to the south coming in at 2-5 for the week leaving the season total at 5-8. Nevertheless, I shall go forward again this week – - albeit with early week lines and not so much injury info as one might like – - in search of a big winning week.
Here are some comments from last week’s Mythical Picks:
I took the Eagles/Saints game to go Under because I suspected the Eagles’ defense would hold the Saints to a reasonable score and that Kevin Kolb would be a disaster. Wrong on both counts…
I took the Cardinals with points saying they would win outright. They did. Unfortunately, I also took the game UNDER. It was not.
I took the Seahawks with the points saying they would win outright. They did not win and they did not cover.
My Ouija Board let me down with the pick of the Browns/Broncos OVER.
I nailed the Ravens plus points; they won.
Obviously, no one will take any information here and use it as the way to decide which side to back in a bet that involves actual cash money. If you did that that, you probably have already attached your brain to a T-1 line that delivers abject stupidity.
Comments:
In the lead-up to last week’s game against the Patriots, new Jets’ coach, Rex Ryan, was talking about the need for the Jets to establish a strong home field advantage for themselves. Reports said that he wanted to make the Jets’ home field “…a stadium that is absolutely miserable to come to.”
Memo to Rex Ryan: You do not need to worry about winning home games to achieve that goal. It was already miserable to come to the Meadowlands before you took over the Jets’ coaching…
The Bengals were 0-4 in the history of their franchise playing in Lambeau Field until last weekend.
The Lions lost their 19th straight game last Sunday tying them with two other franchises for the second-longest losing streak in NFL history. The Bucs hold the league record at 26 straight losses. Should the Lions be able to challenge that futility record, they will have to find a way to lose at home to the St. Louis Rams on 1 November and coming off the Lions’ BYE week because that loss would only be their 24th in a row. That may not be all that easy to accomplish but looking forward to the potential for monumental events:
The Lions 26th consecutive loss would be on 15 November on the road against the Vikings.
The Lions potentially record setting 27th consecutive loss would be on 22 November at home against the Cleveland Browns.
The Rams are a bad football team. They suffer from a condition that cannot be overcome by hustle or smarts or coaching schemes. The Rams have a severe talent deficiency. Their offense is so anemic I am not sure the Rams could score 30 points playing against a cornfield.
The Bears lost Brian Urlacher for the season to a broken wrist; that will definitely hurt the Bears’ defense. The Bills lost Paul Posluzny for the season to a broken arm; that will definitely hurt the Bills’ defense – - but that gets a whole lot less national attention than the Urlacher injury.
Here is an exchange that happened between Sonny Jurgensen (Redskins color analyst on radio) and Redskins’ coach Jim Zorn after last Sunday’s lackluster 9-7 win over the Rams. To set the stage, at one point on third down inside the Rams’ 10 yardline, Zorn called a halfback option pass that was never in danger of being completed:
Jurgensen: “Third down, I’m the quarterback, and you call the halfback throwing the ball for me, I’m calling timeout or calling an audible. I’m not letting the halfback throw it. That’s what you pay me for.”
Zorn: “We called it to work. It didn’t work. There were a lot of plays out there that didn’t work. And I’d take you out of the game. Sorry, Sonny.”
Boomer Esiason had this – less than complimentary – description of Browns’ head coach Eric Mangini:
“Eric Mangini can take the fun out of a 10-year-old’s birthday party with Big Bird there. That’s how miserable this guy is becoming.”
The really bad news for Cowboys’ fans regarding their loss to the Giants last weekend? They cannot blame it on Jessica Simpson being in the house…
The Games:
Cleveland at Baltimore – 14 (38.5): The Ravens are clearly the better team here and they seem to be allowing Joe Flacco to try to win games this year instead of having him manage the games so that the defense and the running game can reel in the victories. However, the Ravens still need to run well to be able to pass well. And that is why this line looks awfully fat to me. I’ll take the Browns with the points – - even though I don’t think they can win the game on the field.
Giants – 6.5 at Tampa (44): I think the Giants are really good and I think the Bucs are pretty bad. The Bucs absolutely need to run in order to have offensive options and I do not think they can run on the Giants. The fact that the Bucs will have to play without Jermaine Phillips for the rest of the year does not make the outlook here any sunnier. I think the Giants will win this by 2 TDs. I’ll take the Giants and lay the points.
Green Bay – 6.5 at St. Louis (41): Sorry, but I saw the Rams game last week and their 2-point loss to the Redskins was as much a statement about Redskins’ offensive ineptitude as it was Rams’ prowess. Green Bay will score here and I think they may score a lot here. I’ll take the Packers and lay the points.
KC at Philly – - No Line Obviously, the books are waiting to see who will be the QB for the Eagles next week. Instead of only 2 choices, there are now 4. Donovan McNabb may be back, Kevin Kolb may start again, Jeff Garcia may be up to speed on the playbook and Michael Vick may be the surprise starter. Unless it is a fully recovered McNabb under center for the Eagles – - extremely low probability there – - the Eagles will not put a huge number up on the board against the Chiefs. Matt Cassell will play for the Chiefs but unless the Chiefs run the ball well, he will be under severe pressure for most of the day.
Atlanta at New England – 4 (44): The Pats have not been scoring a lot this season despite the return of Tom Brady and the Falcons’ defense is not a unit that teams should look forward to playing if they hope to “get well” on offense. I am not thrilled with the idea of taking the Falcons on the road in Foxboro, so I’ll take the game UNDER.
SF at Minnesota – 6.5 (40): The Niners have played well against the Cards and the Seahawks but I really think that the Vikings represent a different level of competition for them right now. In addition, the Niners are on the road here making it very difficult to take them. I like the Vikings to win and cover.
Jax at Houston – 4 (46.5): The Houston offense is sputtering. The Houston defense gave up 200+ yards rushing last week against Tennessee. But they are at home… The Jags played well in Week 1 and stunk last week. Coin flip time… The coin says to take the Jags with the points.
Washington – 6 at Detroit (38.5): I know that the Redskins could not score a TD last week despite running more than 20 plays in the Red Zone of the Rams. Nevertheless, I expect a much better showing this week even on the road and even against another terrible opponent they can “play down to”. I like the Redskins to win and cover and I like the game Over.
Tennessee at Jets – 3 (37): Without a doubt, the Jets are the biggest surprise of the season so far. Having said that, Tennessee is a tough out no matter where the game is played. I think the wrong team is favored here so I’ll take the Titans with the points.
New Orleans – 5 at Buffalo (51.5): The Saints can score; there cannot be any real doubt about that. However, the Saints’ defense has yet to be tested having played the Lions and the Eagles with a back-up QB at the helm. I think the Bills will score too in this game so I’ll take the game OVER.
Chicago – 2 at Seattle (37): The Bears get to play against a weaker defense this week than they have seen in the first two weeks of the season. The Seahawks should be able to move the ball against a depleted Bears’ defense. Here is another game I like to go OVER.
Pittsburgh – 3.5 at Cincy (37): After last week, you have to say that the Steelers’ defense is not quite the same with Troy Polamalu out of the line-up. Nevertheless, it is a better defense than the Packers’ unit that the Bengals exploited last week. I like the Steelers to win and cover.
Denver at Oakland “pick ‘em” (37): This is the worst game of the week. I am not enthralled by the Raiders at all but the Broncos leave me cold too. I think the Raiders have a better defense and so I’ll take the Raiders to win and I’ll take the game UNDER. If you like the Broncos, shop this line because it is as high as 2 points in one sports book.
Miami at San Diego – 6 (44): The Dolphins offense has been AWOL this year but I also think the Chargers’ offense has come down a notch too. I think this line is too fat; I’ll take the Dolphins with the points.
Indy at Arizona – 2 (47): Both teams have underperformed so far this year. I’ll just flip a coin here and the coin says to take the game OVER.
Carolina at Dallas – 8.5 (46): It would appear that the best way to beat Dallas is to throw on their defense – - but throwing the ball is not what the Panthers are doing very well these days. I really do not like this line but I cannot take the Panthers on the road against a team that can score points so I will reluctantly take the Cowboys and lay a lot of points here.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…