Let me start by going over the peaks and valleys in last week’s Mythical Picks – - and there were about as many peaks as there were valleys:
1. I liked the Saints/Cowboys game to go Over 54. It did not even come close. Valley!
2. I liked the Ravens to win and cover 10.5 points and I said this game had “a whiff of ‘blowout’ attached to it.” Ravens won by 24. Peak!
3. I liked the Pats to win and cover 7 against the Bills. The game was a push. Meh!
4. I liked the Cards to win and cover 12.5 points against the Lions and I detected another “whiff of ‘blowout’ “ here. Cards only won by 7. Valley!
5. I liked the Browns + 2 against the Chiefs. The Browns won outright. Peak!
6. I liked the Niners +9 against the Eagles. The Eagles won by 14. Valley!
7. I liked the Texans to win and cover 11 points against the Rams. The Texans won by a measly 3 points. Valley!
8. I liked the Dolphins +4 against the Titans and I liked the game to go Under 43.5. The Dolphins lost by only 3 but the total was 53. Peak! and Valley!
9. I took the Raiders with 14 points against the Broncos. The Raiders won the game outright. Peak!
10. I liked the Chargers to win and cover 6.5 points. They won but did not cover. Valley!
11. I liked the Packers to win the game against the Steelers so I took them with 2 points. The Packers lost on the final play of the game but still covered. Peak!
12. I liked Seattle to win and cover 6 points against the Bucs. They lost outright. Valley!
13. I liked the Bucs/Seahawks game to go Over 39. It did not. Valley!
14. I took the Panthers +9 points against the Vikes even though I did not think the Panthers would win the game. They did indeed win and therefore covered easily. Peak!
15. I liked the Giants/Redskins game to go Over 44. The Giants had 45 all by themselves. Peak!
Given those results, no one of more than meager intellect would be tempted to use anything here as the basis for making a wager on an NFL game this weekend if that wager involved anything of monetary value. If you were dumb enough to do that, you would also be dumb enough to push the “Tab” key on your computer and expect a diet soda to roll out from under the monitor.
Comments:
The “debate” continues on the subject of whether or not the Colts should play to win out the season or to rest their starters and “avoid injury”. Lost in that “debate” is the question of what the Jets ought to do this weekend to get Peyton Manning to the sidelines thereby giving the Jets a better chance to win a critical game for the Jets’ playoff hopes. Should the Jets blitz every play to convince the Colts’ braintrust that it is not worth keeping Manning & Co on the field – - or is Manning’s effectiveness against the blitz a way to put the Colts up 3 TDs before the coaches take Manning to the sidelines?
Speaking of the Jets, they have the #1 overall defense in the NFL and simultaneously, they have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL. Conventional wisdom says such a team should be Super Bowl bound; the Jets will need to win out and to get help from other teams just to make a wildcard slot in the playoffs. How did that happen?
Was it bad coaching? There have been a few speed bumps on Rex Ryan’s road to glory this season but probably not enough to hang the majority of the blame around his neck.
Was it bad quarterbacking? Despite all of the hype and the anointing of Mark Sanchez as “The Sanchize” early in the season, his play of late has been far less than stellar and not even acceptable. He has thrown 20 INTs in 2009; in four games, the Jets have amassed less than 200 yards passing; he has completed less than 54% of his passes for the season. Maybe he will become a “franchise QB” one of these days; in 2009, he has been not much more than an average rookie QB who got much more attention than he earned because he played in NYC.
Here is a name from the past… Joey Galloway signed on this week with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Galloway turned 38 last month; this is his 15th NFL season; he played 3 games earlier this season with the Patriots. There was a time when he was feared as a deep threat; since 2007, he has caught exactly 2 passes for more than 20 yards – - and none of his catches since 2007 have resulted in a TD.
This week, the Cleveland Browns announced that QB, Brady Quinn, would be out for the rest of the season. At that point, the Browns – - in the person of Coach Eric Mangini – - pulled the cloak of secrecy around that event for no apparent reason. Mangini announced that the injury was a “foot injury” (no further specifics there), and that it might “take a little while” to heal. Mangini said he did not know if surgery was necessary nor did he know how Quinn hurt his foot. Films showed that Quinn was scrambling on a play and tripped and then left the game so the genesis of the injury is not exactly as difficult to understand as Fermat’s Last Theorem.
I can understand that teams want to keep the opposition guessing when it comes to some injuries on a football team. But the team put Quinn on IR this week so he cannot play again this season even if he takes a trip to Lourdes and recovers fully tomorrow at high noon. So, what is the purpose of the secrecy and the coach-speak?
The Eagles’ players give an award every year to the player on the team who demonstrates courage the way the players think one of their own should demonstrate courage. I have no problem with that. This year they voted the award to Michael Vick. I do have a problem with that.
Michael Vick demonstrated little if any “courage” in coming back to pro football to earn a six or seven-figure salary for the year. There are no other walks of life where he can do that legally. Michael Vick is an athlete who had his career interrupted for 3 years because he heinously involved himself with dogfighting and dog killing. Once freed from jail, he turned to his only known mode of support – - football. How is that “courageous”?
And that leads me to the point that I have had it up to my eyeballs with the “Michael Vick Apologia Tour”. Enough already; we do not need to have you take reporters/camerafolks with you to yet another animal shelter or middle-school pet day to tell your tale of sorrow and repentance. I heard you; I sort of believe you; now, you need to shut up. Sadly, I fear this will continue to go on until it reaches a level of absurdity that cannot be countenanced any longer. What might that level of absurdity be?
Maybe we need to hear Vick tell everyone that were he ever to open a legal bordello in Nevada, he would never allow any of his employees to turn any tricks “doggy-style”…
Speaking of Michael Vick and his Eagles’ teammates, I mentioned earlier this week that Andy Reid joined an elite coaching fraternity by winning 100 games in a decade. It is important to note that in that run of winning seasons, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have been together; they are the only coach/QB tandem to make it from one end of this decade to the other. The Eagles’ record with these two guys occupying two important roles on the team has been:
Eight times in the playoffs,
Five times champions of the NFC East
Five times in the NFC Championship Game
One time in the Super Bowl.
Compare the Eagles’ situation with Reid/McNabb in place to that of the Oakland Raiders:
Six different coaches since 2000,
Six different first string QBs since 2000.
Since Super Bowl appearance in 2002, finished last in the AFC West 4 times.
Or compare the Eagles’ situation with Reid/McNabb in place to that of the Washington Redskins under the ownership of Danny Boy Snyder since 1999. Remember, when Snyder bought the team in 1999, he bought the NFC East Division Champion for that year. In case you are wondering, the Redskins have not done that since 1999 and here are some of their milestones:
Six coaches (one an interim) since 2000,
Eight different first string QBs since 2000,
Two times in the playoffs since 2000,
One playoff victory since 2000,
Overall record of 70-87 since 2000.
Speaking of the Redskins and their lack of glory in the past decade, their loss to the Giants last week was humiliating. The team played with all the fire and energy of a sodden newspaper. If the Washington fans really cared about the shoddy product that the Skins’ front office has put on the field for the past several years, they would start to refer to the Skins home stadium as “Fed Up Field”. But the fans don’t really care and so Danny Boy will continue to haul in the millions of dollars from FedEx to put their name on that mausoleum of a stadium whilst his players just mail in their performances…
And speaking of coaching stability/continuity, the word is that John Fox might be on the hot seat in Carolina. Excuse me, but his cumulative record there is 69-57. Moreover, he inherited a 1-15 team when he showed up for work. How is that guy considered a stumblebum?
Pay attention to the number of meaningless games on the card this week and next week. In many of those games, there will be players that have mentally packed up their gear and shipped it home; for some, the season is no more. That makes wagering at this time of the year a very dicey proposition and you must exert money management discipline on yourself with regard to bets on meaningless games.
The Games:
(Christmas Night) San Diego at Tennessee – 3 (47): The Chargers have clinched the AFC West already; they can assure themselves a playoff bye week with a win here. The Norv Turner/Philip Rivers tandem is undefeated in the month of December. The Titans find themselves in a 6-way tie behind the Ravens and Broncos as wildcard aspirants. I would not even try to map out what it would take for the Titans to make the playoffs at this point; suffice it to say, a loss here would put a nail in their coffin. Chris Johnson has rushed for over 100 yards in nine consecutive games; only Barry Sanders and Marcus Allen did that in 10 consecutive games. Johnson needs 170 yards in his last two games to reach the 2000-yard plateau. Here is a meaningless stat: Jeff Fisher has never beaten the Chargers in his time as the head coach at Tennessee. Expect a very physical game – - one where the players take it out on the opponents that the league made them play on Christmas night. I like this game to Over.
Buffalo at Atlanta – 9 (41): The Bills average time of possession this year is under 26 minutes; the Falcons average time of possession this year is under 25 minutes. So, who will have the ball for the missing nine minutes in this game? The officials? The Bills’ QB situation is uncertain for this week; Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick are hurt and Fitzpatrick did not practice on Wednesday. That leaves Brian Brohm as the potential starter with recently signed Gibran Hamden as the backup. The Bills are last in the NFL in converting 3rd down situations. Michael Turner is probably out for the Falcons. Whatever. Neither offense is fearsome so this looks to be a low scoring game and that makes a 9-point spread very attractive. But if Brohm has to play more than a few snaps that would have to take a miserable Bills’ offense to begin with and turn it sour. I’ll just take this game Under.
KC at Cincy – 13.5 (41): This is a simple and straightforward game for the Bengals. If they win, they are in the playoffs. Last week, the Chiefs gave up 351 yards rushing for the game and 287 of them were to Jerome Harrison who was virtually unknown outside of the Harrison nuclear family up until that game. Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson have to be licking their chops… Philip Rivers torched the Bengals last week for 3 TDs and 308 yards passing; the Chiefs passing attack is not nearly that proficient or fearsome. The Bengals’ defense is good so I don’t see the Chiefs scoring more than 10 points. Therefore, I will take the game Under.
Oakland at Cleveland – 3 (38.5): This has to get consideration as the Worst Game of the Week – - even though both teams won last week and the Browns come in sporting a 2-game winning streak. By the way, the last time the Browns had a 3-game win streak was in 2001. The combined record of these two teams is 8-20 making it a meaningless game at the bottom of the NFL food chain. Both teams have had QB issues this year. Granted, the QB Rating system is flawed but a “good QB” has a rating of 80 or higher and a marginal QB has a rating of 70-80. Using those rules of thumb, come up with our own adjectives for the Raiders’ QBs whose cumulative rating is 57.6 and the Browns’ QBs whose cumulative rating is 52.8. The Raiders’ defense has shown signs of life recently but their special teams may have their hands full with Josh Cribbs. I have no idea what to pick here so I am flipping a coin and the coin says to take the game Under. Have you picked up a trend from the last three Mythical Picks?
Seattle at Green Bay – 14 (41): The Packers defense had been playing very well for about a month until last week when they gave up a ton of points to the Steelers. That defense ought to get back in the groove against a mediocre Seahawks’ team here. Here is a stat comparison that jumps out at me. The Seahawks convert 33.3% of their 3rd down situations; the Packers convert 46.7%. The Packers can clinch a playoff spot if they win here and either the Giants or the Cowboys lose. Seattle is not involved in any playoff discussions this season; in fact, the Seahawks have lost their last two games by a combined score of 58-14. I think the Packers are the better team; the Packers are at home; the Packers have a shot at the playoffs this year. I’ll take the Packers to win and cover a very fat line.
Houston at Miami – 3 (41.5): The Dolphins and the Texans are part of that 6-team scrum just a game behind in the AFC wildcard scrum. Neither team faces a “win-and-you’re-in” situation here but a loss would be devastating. So, for all practical purposes, this is a playoff game of sorts for both teams. The Texans have never lost to the Dolphins in franchise history – - dating all the way back to 1999. Texans’ QB, Matt Schaub has thrown for 300+ yards in 8 games this year; only one QB in the NFL has more than 8 such games; you may have heard of Peyton Manning, no? I like this game to go Under.
Carolina at Giants – 7 (42.5): Which Giants’ defense will show up here? The one that got pushed around by the Cowboys or the one that battered the Redskins? For the Giants to make the playoffs – - after a 5-0 start to the season – - they have to win out and the Cowboys or the Packers need to lose one game. Clearly, the motivational edge belongs to the Giants here; they cannot look ahead to their final game against the Vikings next week or that game may turn out to be meaningless. The Panthers’ WR, Steve Smith, needs only 78 receiving yards to go over the 1000-yard mark for the fifth consecutive season. I like the Giants to win and cover and I like the game to go Over.
Jax at New England – 7.5 (43.5): The Pats are in the playoffs with a win no matter what else happens and I think they are going to get that win on Sunday against a Jaguars’ team that played hard against the Colts last week but came up short. Yes, the Jags had a bit of extra time to prepare for this game but I think that was just more time for them to reflect on their loss and to let it deflate them even more. The Jags are in that knot of AFC teams aspiring to the wildcard slots; I think they will see those aspirations shot in the fanny this week. The Pats are 7-0 in Foxboro this season. I like the Pats to win and cover here.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans – 14 (49): The Saints look to secure home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs by winning here; the Saints have never held such a lofty perch in franchise history. The Bucs won last week against the Seahawks but step up in class against the Saints this week. Even with that win against the Seahawks on his card, Josh Freeman’s last three games have not been sterling; in that span, he has thrown 2 TDs (both last week) and thrown 9 INTs. I cannot see the Bucs winning this game; even though that is a fat line indeed, I will take the Saints to win and cover and I will take the game to go Over.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 3 (42): This is one of the best games of the weekend. This is the game that those teams in the 6-way tie just outside the wildcard slot in the AFC have to be looking for. The Ravens are in the wild card slot now but with a loss here, they would have the same record as any of those 6 teams who happen to win on Sunday – - such as the Steelers… I believe that Keith Jackson would call this game a “slobberknocker”. Look carefully at the Ravens’ last two wins by a combined score of 79-10; those came at the expense of the Bears and the Lions – two less-than-good football teams. The venue favors the Steelers here; they are 5-2 at home while the Ravens are only 2-4 on the road. I think the Steelers’ offense came back to life last week meaning that this game could be a shoot-out. I like the Steelers to win and cover – - and to make the AFC wild card race very interesting going into the final week of the regular season. And I like the game Over.
St. Louis at Arizona – 14 (43.5): Neither team has a defense to write home about. The Cards yield 355 yards per game; the Rams give up 374 yards per game. The Rams have the worst scoring team in the league; they average only 11.4 points per game. In a completely meaningless game, I like the game Under.
Detroit at SF – 12 (41): The Niners were eliminated from the playoffs with their loss last weekend. The Lions were eliminated from the playoffs on Labor Day. It will be interesting to see if Mike Singletary can transmit his intensity to the players in this meaningless game. Both teams average about 100 yards per game on the ground and both teams average around 190 yards per game passing. However, the Lions rank last in the league in:
Total defense
Pass defense
Scoring defense
TDs allowed
TD passes allowed
Opponents’ pass completion percentage (68.9% !!)
The Lions are going to give Drew Stanton his first NFL start here with Matthew Stafford hurt and Duante Culpepper playing like Duante Culpepper. I have flipped a coin and it says to take the game Under. Whatever.
Denver at Philly – 7 (41.5): This is the best game of the weekend. The Eagles are in the playoffs; they could lock up an NFC East division title with a win here and a loss by the Cowboys against the Redskins. The Broncos would be a wild card team in the AFC if the season ended now, but they are only one game above that 6-team pile up in the AFC. The Broncos started off 6-0 but they have not played well since that and their record now stands at 8-6. This is a homecoming for Brian Dawkins; normally Philly fans are not kind to former Philly players who return to play the local heroes but Dawkins was extremely popular in his 12 years in Philly and should be warmly received – - unless he intercepts a pass and returns it for a TD. I like the game to go Over.
Jets at Indy -5 (40.5): This is one of the best games of the weekend. The Jets need to win to stay in the wildcard race; the Colts are merely 14-0 for the season. The Jets convert 34.5% of their 3rd down situations; the Colts convert an amazing 52.6% of their 3rd down situations (best in the NFL). The Colts’ punter must feel like the Maytag Repairman. Peyton Manning can join Brett Favre, Dan Marino and John Elway as the QBs who have thrown for 50,000 yards in a career if he can find a way to get 160 yards in the air on Sunday. I like his chances. I’ll take the Jets with the points here because the game means a lot more to them than it does to the Colts.
(Sun Nite) Dallas – 7 at Washington (42): Both of these teams have shown the tendency to play up or down to the competition. So, will the Cowboys play down this week or will the Skins play up? The Skins were pathetic last week against the Giants – - and that was on their good plays. The Cowboys beat the Saints ending the Saints’ hopes for a perfect season. While I do not expect the Skins to make a miraculous turnaround here, I do expect the Cowboys’ balloon to deflate just a bit. If the Cowboys win, it will be the first time they have swept the Skins since 2004. I’ll take the Skins with the full TD here.
(Mon Nite) Minnesota – 7 at Chicago (41): Remember the old TV show, Petticoat Junction? This game looks to be an episode of Dysfunction Junction what with the Bears and Vikings “issues” on display. The Bears have gone into hibernation; the players show no fire and the coaching staff has all the urgency of a bunch of folks on Quaaludes. The Vikings have not yet wrapped up a bye week in the playoffs; Adrian Peterson has not had a 100-yard game in a while; the OL was steamrollered last week. Despite any real or imagined animus between Brett Favre and Brad Childress, this game sets up as a butt stomping despite the rivalry history between these teams. I like the Vikings to win and cover.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…