The Sports Curmudgeon®

Ready or not, Mythical Picks – - the NCAA version at least – - are back. The college football season begins this week and I will try to put out these college football round-ups and Mythical Picks every week. I am not sure my calendar for later this Fall will allow that, but I will try.

There will be a general format to these missives for those of you who are newly arrived readers:

I will follow the fortunes of the Linfield College Wildcats as they attempt to have a winning record in football for the 55th consecutive year.

I will summarize the previous week’s mythical selections.

I will offer “General Comments” on college football.

I will track what I call “Ponderosa Spread Games” – - that will be explained below.

Starting about halfway through the year, I will try to identify the 8 worst teams in the country as participants in a mythical SHOE Tournament. SHOE is an acronym for Steaming Heap Of Excrement; the idea of the tournament is that the teams play and the losers have to continue to play until one sad sack of a team is left face down on the canvas as the worst team of the year.

I will identify “Games of Interest” and make selections in those games.

In addition, I will take the opportunity every week to announce that these picks are mythical and are not intended to be gambling advice. I will try each week to tell readers not to take these words as if they came from anyone who actually knew what he was talking about in terms of gambling. Any reader who does that is dumb enough to believe that bigotry is an Italian oak…

General Comments:

Let me begin NCAA football commentary this year with a Quick Quiz. Which of these is more useless and vapid?

A. Pre-season polls

B. Pre-season All-America teams

Fifty words or less…

Acknowledging the stupidity of trying to make judgments about the season outcomes before a single game is played, I must confess that I have an eye on four teams who could be strong contenders to be in the SHOE Tournament. Just for fun, here they are:

Miami (Oh) University: They were awful last year and it looks as if most of the team is back this year. “Experienced players” are only an asset if the players are also “talented”. We will need to see if this team has talent or merely older players this year.

Tulane: They had no defense last year and just about everyone is back on that unit. As above, that may not be a good thing at all.

North Texas: They have stunk reliably for the past several years and seem to find ways to give up points in torrents.

Washington State: In the last two years, the Cougars have played 25 games and won exactly 3 of them. One was against a Division 1-AA team and another was against a Washington team that went 0-13 for the year. Just to clarify – - not good at all.

As the year progresses, I will hope that the NCAA modifies its sanctions against USC to allow the Trojans to play in a Bowl Game this year – - only if it is the Music City Bowl in Nashville and if the opponent is the Tennessee Volunteers. Schadenfreude is fun…

Here is an item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times regarding some “poor decision making” on the part of some UCLA prospects:

“Three incoming UCLA football recruits didn’t even make it to the start of fall camp before they got arrested by campus police on suspicion of felony theft.

“Now that’s what’s known as a false start.”

Another fun thing to do before the season starts is to identify “Coaches on a Hot Seat”. What is amazing is the some of the coaches so identified wind up getting fired at the end of the year – - even though these predictions are nothing more than wild-assed guesses. So, in that spirit, here are some coaches – in alphabetical order to avoid any appearance of prioritization – who need to win this year to stay employed where they are:

Ralph Friedgen – Maryland: He worked magic when he arrived in College Park taking Maryland to bowl games but his last few teams have been dreary most of the time and dismal the rest of the time. Another sad sack season and “The Fat Lady” might be singing to “The Fat Man”.

Dan Hawkins – Colorado: He was highly successful at Boise State and has been singularly underwhelming at Colorado. Last year Colorado was 3-9 and next year the Buffaloes jump to the PAC-10. They will likely have a new coach in addition to a new conference schedule if they go 3-9 again.

Rich Rodriguez – Michigan: He has been in Ann Arbor for two years; the team is on probation for practicing too much; nevertheless, his cumulative record is 8-16. If the Wolverines are not “bowl eligible” this year, I think the alums there “go to the hip” and find a way to buy him out of his deal.

Paul Wulff – Washington State: See the comments about Washington State regarding their possible participation in the mythical SHOE Tournament above…

Ron Zook – Illinois: Since taking Illinois to the Rose Bowl – - where they got their lunch handed to them – - not all has come up roses for the Illini. I wonder if the guy in Florida who owns the URL, www.fireronzook.com, has gotten any offers…

Meanwhile, there are a few coaches around who are in a position to get a lot of media attention such that a successful season could make them “media darlings”. Here are four:

Jimbo Fisher – Florida State: He takes over from a legend – - and a legend who claims he was forced out of the job at FSU. Coaches who follow legends typically do not do all that well so folks will have their eye on Fisher and his Seminoles this year.

Brian Kelly – Notre Dame: The coach of Notre Dame always gets lots of attention – - as does the QB at Notre Dame. Brian Kelly has been a winner everywhere else he has coached; if he can put Notre Dame back in the discussion as one of the top 10 teams in the country, he will be a bright star in the firmament.

Lane Kiffin – USC: Talk about an unusual career path, strange doings and controversy hover around Lane Kiffin like BO on a hobo. Win or lose, Kiffin will get attention.

Steve Sarkissian – Washington: Some folks think his Huskies could be very good this year and that his QB might be a Heismann candidate. Considering that this team was winless only two seasons ago, that would put Coach Sarkissian in a bright spotlight indeed…

The Ponderosas:

Years ago, I decided to keep track of the wagering outcome of college football games with huge spreads. I defined a “huge spread” as 24 points or more and merely looked to see if the favorites covered those huge numbers with regularity. Over several years, it was amazing to note that the favorites covered about half the time, which might lead one to think that the people setting the lines really have some idea about how two teams will fare against one another.

Such is not really the case because the person setting the line is not trying to predict the outcome of the game; the person setting the line merely wants to throw up a number that will attract the same amount of money on each side of the bet. That is called “balancing the book”; and when the book is balanced, the book stands to keep approximately 5% of the total amount wagered. Here is how it works:

A bettor has to wager $110 to win $100 betting the spread.

If the line were Team A – 3.5 vs. Team B, the book’s objective would be to “balance the book”.

If 50 bettors picked Team A for $110 and 50 Bettors picked Team B for $110, the total amount in the hands of the book is $11,000.

Assume Team A covers (Trust me, it is exactly the same if Team B were to cover and it is not possible for both to cover in the same game), the book has to pay out $210 to each of the 50 winning bettors. That comes out to $10,500 and the remaining $500 stays in the pockets of the folks who run the book.

Therefore, the proximity of the huge spread game outcomes to 50% coverage for the favorites would appear to be pure happenstance. I found that interesting and so I started to track it each year for fun. In 2008, there was a large statistical anomaly. Favorites went 46-28-3 against the huge spreads. Demonstrating that past performance is not an indicator of future success, favorites in 2009 went 36-38 against the huge spreads. For 2010 – - we shall see…

In case you are wondering why these are “Ponderosas”, I took the name from the old TV show, Bonanza, where the ranch owned by Ben Cartwright was The Ponderosa – - and the ranch was a “huge spread”.

This week there are lots of Ponderosa Games thanks to early season scheduling shenanigans at several major schools. There would be lots more except all the games involving good Division 1 teams playing Division 1-AA teams are “off the board”.

(Thurs 9/2) Marshall at Ohio State – 28.5 (47.5): Marshall had a decent defense last year – - playing Conf-USA opponents. They will not hold Ohio State down for long. Marshall’s offense last year was only ordinary – - playing Conf-USA opponents. They will not light up the scoreboard against Ohio State here.

(Sat 9/4) Western Michigan at Michigan State – 24 (54): Michigan State’s pass defense last year was 112th in the nation – - and there are only 120 schools playing Division 1 college football. They have to correct that if they are going to cover a 24 point spread even against a team from the MAC.

(Sat 9/4) Miami (Oh) at Florida – 35 (53): This is a game that should never have been scheduled. If the outcome is in doubt in the second quarter, it will be a shock.

(Sat 9/4) La-Lafayette at Georgia – 28 (52.5): Here is another game that should never have been scheduled.

(Sat 9/4) Texas – 30 at Rice (59): In the old days, these teams played in the Southwest Conference together. Even then, many of the games were mismatches…

(Sat 9/4) New Mexico at Oregon – 34 (55.5): Last year, Oregon lost its opener against Boise State and then there was the punching incident after the game… Somehow, I think the coaches will use that history to keep the team focused on its business here. I do not know if Oregon will cover, but it should win comfortably.

(Sat 9/4) Arkansas State at Auburn – 31 (58): Under Gene Chizik, Auburn has become an offensive machine once again.

(Sat 9/4) W. Kentucky at Nebraska – 37.5 (51.5): Too bad the Cornhuskers had to settle for W. Kentucky as its opening opponent. I guess Quinnipiac could not make it to Lincoln in time for the game.

(Sat 9/4) San Jose State at Alabama – 39 (53.5): I realize that “shame” and “Nick Saban” should not appear in the same sentence, but Nick Saban ought to be ashamed at scheduling this cupcake.

(Sat 9/4) Utah State at Oklahoma – 34 (57): Here is another one where the outcome will not be in doubt for long…

Games of Interest:

(Thurs 9/2) Minnesota – 3 at Middle Tennessee State (48.5): I did not identify Tim Brewster as a “Coach on a Hot Seat” above, but if he loses to a Sun Belt team to open this season, look for someone to turn the thermostat up in Minneapolis. The Gophers have not been very good for a while now but they have been able to run the ball pretty well. Just because I think Coach Brewster would like some room to exhale for at least part of the season, I suspect he has this team ready. On a flyer, I would take Minnesota to win and cover – - even on the road.

(Sat 9/4) UConn at Michigan – 3 (54): UConn beat Notre Dame and South Carolina last year. A win here in “The Big House” might begin to make people think of UConn as a “football school” in addition to being a “basketball school”. Picture this irony. UConn beats Michigan in the opener in “The Big House” setting up a disappointing season for the Wolverines who react by firing Ric Rodriguez and hiring – - UConn coach, Randy Edsall. If you are trying to find a live underdog in Week 1, the Huskies just might fit that description. I like UConn with the points here.

(Sat 9/4) Purdue at Notre Dame – 11.5 (54.5): Yes, this is the first game of the Brian Kelly Era in South Bend meaning lots of energy and optimism there – - and plenty of the Notre Dame subway alums around the country getting some bread down on the Irish for this game. Neither team is coming off a winning season last year nor do I not think either will be playing a meaningful game in December or January. Nevertheless, that line looks awfully fat to me considering this is a rivalry game and the Irish have a new system to implement. I would take Purdue with the points.

(Sat 9/4) Northwestern – 5.5 at Vandy (44): This is one of those games you can call “The SAT Bowl” because players likely did well on the SATs even though they had to take them for themselves. Last year, Vandy ranked 113th in scoring in the country; Northwestern lost their AB, Mike Kafka, to graduation and the NFL draft. This looks like a low scoring game. I would not make a wager here even with mythical money. However, I will look at the stats for this game to give me an idea of how these teams might fare as underdogs in their conference games.

(Thurs 9/2) Pitt at Utah – 3 (48.5): This is probably the best game of the weekend – - unless you think Boise State/Va Tech or Oregon State/TCU will be a better game. Keep an eye on Pitt running back Dion Lewis; that kid can play. Utah has become a reliably good team out west and I suspect that they are a favorite here because of the venue. Here is a game to teach yourself a lesson. Watch it on TV – - it is on Versus so you may not be able to get it – - and do not have a bet on the game. Believe it or not; that is a perfectly appropriate and natural thing to do. That may be the most valuable wagering lesson that you can learn in this first week of the 2010 football season.

(Sat 9/4) Syracuse – 8.5 at Akron (42): It as been a while since Akron had a winning season and they have a new coach. Syracuse is not the powerhouse it used to be but a new coach last year improved the team and now they hope to build on that foundation. I think Syracuse is too much for Akron here; I would take the Orange to win and cover.

(Sun 9/5) Tulsa – 8.5 at East Carolina (61): These teams scheduled a conference game to start the season; you will not find a whole lot of them on the card for this weekend. East Carolina has been dominant in Conf-USA the last couple of years but they have a new coach; Tulsa relies on its offense to outscore opponents. I think it is too early in the season to see these teams put 61 points on the board. If I were to play this game, I would take it UNDER.

(Sat 9/4) Oregon State vs. TCU – 13.5 (50.5): This game will be in Jerry Jones’ new playpen in Dallas so it is not technically a home game for TCU. A lot is expected of TCU this year and Oregon State should be one of the better PAC-10 teams this year. Should be a good game. Watch it and enjoy it – - but do not bet on it unless your name is Billy Clyde Puckett or “Shake” Tiller.

(Mon 9/4) Navy – 6.5 vs. Maryland (48.5): This game will be in Baltimore so it is a neutral site game. The Navy program has been on the upswing for the last several years and the Maryland program has been floundering. Purely on a hunch, I think this game could go OVER the total.

(Mon 9/4) Boise State – 2.5 vs. Va Tech (50): This game is in FedEx Field so it is a neutral site game – - although Boise State will travel about ten times the distance to the stadium that Va Tech will. People think this is the year Boise State might crack into the BCS Championship Game. If they really have such aspirations, they need to win this game convincingly because there are not a lot of opponents on the rest of the Broncos schedule that will give them a boost in prestige. Here is another game to watch and enjoy…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…