10/28/05
It's that time of year again. The autumnal pilgrimage to Las Vegas is over and it is time to concentrate on the Breeders' Cup races, which will be held this Saturday at Belmont. I have obtained my advance copy of the Daily Racing Form for these events and have begun handicapping. As usual, I will participate in a small betting syndicate for the races. Of course, no one reading this missive would give even the slightest thought to using any information here as the basis for wagering on one of these races or one of the horses I talk about here. Anyone doing that will need to leave explicit instructions in your will that your body needs to be cremated and not buried. Remember, it's illegal to plant dope.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies:
This race is contested at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2-year-old females. This is the first time most of these animals have run anywhere near this distance and young fillies – except for the truly outstanding ones – are notoriously inconsistent from race to race. Nonetheless, there will be wagering on the race and therefore, it is an interesting handicapping challenge.
Folklore is a filly trained by D. Wayne Lukas who is known for pushing young horses and getting them to perform well early in their careers. They don't always have the longest of racing careers, but all we have to consider here is what might happen on Saturday and not 9 months from now. So far, this filly has done everything she's been asked to do on the track. She's started six times already and has a win against Grade 1 company and another win with Grade 2 company; she's never been worse than second. Here's the problem. She hasn't raced for six weeks and that is a long layoff for even an older animal who has been in serious racing condition for a long time. If you believe in genetics, she should be able to handle this distance – although she's never tried it before – because her sire and her grandsire were good distance horses. She bears strong consideration here and will probably go off as the betting favorite.
Adieu has beaten Folklore twice and lost to her once. In terms of head-to-head races, you would love to back the two of them in exactas and forget everything else. However, Adieu's genes seem to speak to sprinting speed and not distance racing. Her sire and grandsire were both excellent horses but both were sprinters and neither was anything special beyond a mile. She can't be ignored on the basis of past performances and might even have a nice price attached to her on Saturday. I'll want a nice price based on the breeding and her form to date.
Wild Fit closed like a freight train in a race at DelMar in August. She was 10th with half a mile to go and won the race by 2 lengths. Yes, that was a sprint; but sprinters who rally strongly at shorter distances can often do well at longer distances. She merits consideration in exactas and trifectas.
Looking for a longshot, I came up with Original Spin, who has raced twice. Both races were impressive wins and one of them was at a one-mile distance. But she's never traveled to a race and has yet to face any competition close to what she'll face on Saturday. But she just might be a prodigy and will certainly have a nice price on Saturday.
Diamond Omi is the only other filly of interest here – and my interest is only slight at the moment.
Part of handicapping a race is to dismiss horses from consideration early so you can focus on the more likely contenders. In this race, I choose to dismiss Ex Caelis who has yet to win against top company.
The Breeders' Cup Juveniles:
This race is also at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for two-year-old colts and geldings. For those readers who are not versed in racetrack parlance, a gelding is an animal that used to be a colt – if you catch my drift here. Like the Juvenile Fillies, few of these animals have ever raced this far in their career. And like the Juvenile Fillies, these are not animals known for their consistency from race performance to race performance.
First Samurai has raced four times and has won four times at six furlongs, seven furlongs and one mile. His sire is Giant's Causeway who I remember as a fine animal so I went to look up his record. Giant's Causeway raced 13 times and won 9 times and finished second the other four times; one of those second place finishes was in the Breeders' Cup Classic. First Samurai might have Jerry Bailey on board; Bailey is the regular rider for Private Vow in addition to First Samurai. If I show up at a track I don't know much about and see a local jockey I've never heard of with a meet record of 95 starts with 14 wins and 37 in-the-money finishes, I figure he's pretty good. That's what Jerry Bailey has done in Breeders' Cup races over the years. This looks like a formidable team – assuming Bailey rides here – but the price will be short.
Henny Hughes is a horse that commentators say is “blazing fast”. I haven't seen him run, so I don't know that. But here is something I do know: After winning his first three starts most impressively, he ran second in his next two races to First Samurai. If the jockey can't rate him on Saturday and he flies to the front at speeds similar to what he did the last two times, he might really fall apart in the stretch. I can't throw him out, but I don't think he can beat First Samurai unless he goes to the front and no one challenges him and he sets a modest pace. And I don't think that's gonna happen…
Private Vow has been impressive in his last three races but has never been beyond seven furlongs. And he has been off the track for six weeks. As a grandson of Unbridled, you would expect him to be a good distance runner so maybe the 1 1/16 mile race here is no big deal. Jerry Bailey has ridden this animal in the past so It will be interesting to see which horse Bailey chooses to ride on Saturday He too loves to be on or near the pace and he likes it to be a fast pace. I still think this colt deserves backing on Saturday in exactas and trifectas with some of the tickets having his number on top.
The problem here is that all three of the horses listed above all want to go to the lead and they could very well burn each other out on the front end of the race. That would set things up for a stretch runner to catch them all. Now all I need to do is find one of them.
In looking for a longshot in this race, I did notice that Stevie Wonderboy had some stretch run in him in a previous race and that he is owned by Merv Griffin. Problem is that the horses he caught in the stretch weren't very good and I don't think other horses will be slowing down to get Merv Griffin's autograph during the race. I also noticed that Bobby Hurley is a part owner of Stream Cat, but that didn't give me any warm and fuzzy feelings either and Stream Cat looks horribly overmatched here.
However, Sorcerer's Stone looks like a worthy longshot who set a stakes record in winning his last race [Arlington-Washington Futurity] by 8 lengths. He will see better competition on Saturday but he was flying at the end of that race going the final furlong in 24 seconds. If he does that on Saturday, he'll catch a lot of rivals here.
I'll dismiss Jealous Profit from further consideration here because a couple of other horses here who are not nearly part of my handicapping focus have beaten him.
The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf:
As you might conclude from the name of this race division, this race is for fillies and mares three-years old and older on the grass racecourse at a mile and a quarter. Several of these animals have run in this race at least once before. There is an old racetrack adage that goes, “Horses for courses…” That is a player's way of saying that some horses do well at certain tracks even though they might not do very well in other venues. We have one of those in this race – even though I don't think she'll win – but it does offer some wagering opportunities and means we'll have to watch the betting carefully here. This race is wide open.
Riskaverse has run in this race three times before and has never been close to the winner. Saturday, she will become the only animal ever to run in the Filly and Mare Turf four times. However, she has run extremely well on the Belmont turf course in her career winning 5 of 13 starts there including two Grade 1 stakes races. If you don't look at that, you'll conclude she isn't fast enough to stay with others here, but “horses for courses…” I'd like to have her in exactas and trifectas on Saturday.
Ouija Board won this race last year but has had some difficulties with injuries this year. She's only started twice since winning the Filly and Mare Turf at Lone Star Park last year so there are lots of things to worry about her conditioning and her soundness; nonetheless, she will attract a whole lot of betting money. The only Graded race she ran was a Grade 3 but I sure don't recognize any of the horses that were in there with her. If she is ready, she can fly down the stretch. I'm just not convinced that she's worth a short price.
Megahertz will also come flying down the stretch in this race – or you'll never hear her name called after the six-furlong call because she will be at the back of the pack with Ouija Board early on and will only begin to get rolling after everyone else has run six furlongs. When she wins, it is usually a length or less so she needs to get running and find a clear path to the finish line. If Ouija Board is right and these two horses come down the stretch together, I like Ouija Board to win comfortably. But I can't throw Megahertz out of the wagering picture.
Looking for a longshot here, I did notice that Wonder Again is partially owned by celebrity chef, Bobby Flay. If this horse loses on Saturday and is retired at the age of 6, I think I'd stay away from the steak in his restaurant for the next couple of weeks; but that's just me. I did find two longshots in this race.
Angara has been active all year racing 10 times already this year. Two of her races this year were in Grade 1 stakes races against males; she finished fifth in those races, which is actually pretty good at that level of competition. I do not like her outside post draw however and would want a huge price before I'd play her seriously. Wend is lightly raced and with improvement can run with the others here. Is she ready to improve? I don't know; but with odds of 25-1 or something like that, I'd be willing to take a shot and find out.
I'll cross out Favourable Terms on the basis that she has run only twice this year and was not a factor in her only Graded race.
The Breeders' Cup Sprint:
As always, the Sprint will be contested at 6 furlongs and will bring together a field of speedballs. Normally, the three or four horses I like in the Sprint wind up finishing ninth, eleventh and twelfth in the field – even if there are only eight entries. I have never done well in this race. Undaunted by previous failures [Translation: I'm a really slow learner!] here are the animals I like on Saturday.
Lost In The Fog has started nine races and has won all nine races. It's hard to argue with that. Eight of his races have been this year and they have been at seven different tracks. Some people say he “hasn't faced top flight competition” yet, but the way I read the charts, he has won a Grade 1 race and several Grade 2 races. So, who were the animals masquerading as top flight horses in those races? Maybe this is the day Lost In The Fog loses for the first time, but I still have to put him in the mix.
Battle Won is always a factor in a sprint. The only thing that bothers me here is that he often does not get out of the gate very well and in a 6 furlong race against Breeders' Cup caliber horses, that is a sure fire way to lose the race. But if he gets out cleanly, he'll be right near the leaders as the field straightens out for home and he tends to run strongly in the stretch…
Taste of Paradise is a closer even at six furlongs, but can he do it against this kind of field? He circled the field from last to first in his last race, but these are better horses. I can't ignore him, but I really want a nice price before I put any significant wager on him.
Wildcat Heir is my longshot pick. He has started only once this year running 6 furlongs in 1:08 2/5 – which is very fast. He hasn't raced much in his career (eleven starts as a five-year-old) and he has obviously had injury setbacks because he has huge gaps in his racing résumé. In his eleven starts, he's been first or second in ten of those. Even in a shortened field, Wildcat Heir should go off at 20-1 and in that range, he makes sense.
I'll dismiss Gygistar from further consideration because he does not run six-furlong races and on Saturday, he will face the world's best sprinters at that distance. And he is coming from the far outside against this field. I'll also dismiss Imperialism from consideration because he's never won at this distance. Given my record in the Sprint over the years, these two horses boxed in the exacta might be a smart play…
The Breeders' Cup Mile:
As you might conclude, this race is one mile long. If you did not jump to that conclusion, please do not attempt to do anything strenuous along the intellectual dimension of life such as doing the research necessary to learn who is buried in Grant's Tomb. The race is for three-year old animals and up of any gender – or former gender for those so unfortunate to have to consider the concept of a “former gender”.
Leroidesanimaux [Translation: The King of the Animals] lost the first race he ran. Since then, he has won all eight of the races he has entered. His racing style seems to be whatever needs to be done; he can stay with the leaders and pounce on them in the stretch or he can hang back and come from waaay back. Look for a short price on this horse in this race. In our Pick Six bets, I'm going to suggest singling this race. Here's my biggest concern. Given the weather on the East Coast for the last week or so, the turf course should be soft – or at least it will be yielding. It says he ran on a course like this at Woodbine and ran 1:35 for the mile but that makes me believe the track wasn't all that soft.
Artie Schiller has been the favorite in the last 10 races he ran - - including last year's Breeders' Cup Mile where he finished “up the track”. He won't be the favorite on Saturday. But he might be part of the photo for place and show.
Singletary won this race last year. He's back again but his record this year is hardly spectacular. I'll be looking for a big price here.
Funfair and Valixir are interesting for absolutely opposite reasons. Funfair was a modest animal in Europe who has been really good since being sent to the US to race. Valixir has been strong in a European campaign that has tackled most of the good horses in Europe but hasn't been here to race yet. One of these two should be a factor in the race and watching them in the post parade will be part of the process of distinguishing which one it will be.
I'll throw out Ad Valorem in this race because he has started four races this year and has yet to win this year. That's not the kind of form I like to see coming into a race of this stature.
The Breeders' Cup Distaff:
This race is for fillies and mares three-year olds and up on the main track at a distance of 1 1/8 miles.
Ahsado is the class of the field. She won this race last year and has only raced in Graded Stakes since breaking her maiden in her first race. She has won Grade 1 races in three consecutive years and the number of active thoroughbreds who can make that claim would not make a long enough list to fill out a basketball team. She won the Eclipse Award last year as the best three-year old filly and could win a similar award as the best filly/mare in training this year. She has raced well at Belmont in her career and has the kind of racing style that fits this kind of race; she'll sit behind leaders and pounce unless they go too slowly and then she'll take over the race. This should be a short priced favorite and the worry might be that a real speed duel materializes up front and gets her trapped in among tiring speedballs.
Stellar Jayne beat Ashado in the Mother Goose Stakes last year. But since then, she hasn't followed up on that action. She has won four of the five races she has run at Belmont including three Grade 1 races [Horses for courses…] but she's only had two races in the last twelve months. Given her New York successes, it is not likely she'll be a long price but with Ashado here, that's what I'd need to bet her heavily on top of exacta and trifecta tickets. She'll be in the mix, but most of my money will have her filling out exotic wagers.
Happy Ticket has started twelve races and won ten of them. She was second in the other two races. While that sounds exceptionally strong, she seems a bit slower than both Ashado and Stellar Jayne; but she can't be dismissed completely. The only time she ran against Ashado, she was second by only half a length.
I've looked for a longshot here and I like Society Selection on the basis that she may be the stretch runner who comes along and picks up the pieces of a fast paced race. I don't know if she'll win, but she ought to be in the exactas and trifectas somewhere.
I'll toss out Nothing But Fun and Yolanda B. Too. They ran first and second in the Cotillion Stakes at Philadelphia Park recently but that is the pinnacle of their racing careers. The Cotillion Stakes just does not measure up to this kind of competition.
The Breeders' Cup Turf:
OK, now that the other races are out of the way, here come the heavyweights. The Turf is a race on the grass at 1 ½ miles for the best turf horses that are healthy enough to run on this date. Typically, this is a great race. One important thing to do is to watch carefully how the earlier turf races are run to see if stretch runners do well or if speed holds up. Normally, this race involves a cavalry charge down the stretch with six or eight horses hitting the finish line within two lengths of one another. I think the key to this race will be finding a horse that really likes a soft course because at 12 furlongs the horse will take a lot of strides on a soft grass surface.
Better Talk Now won this race last year and has not done anything in 2005 to suggest that he has declined significantly in his performance capability. He loves to run long distances and should be coming on in the final two furlongs.
Ace is a bridesmaid. He hasn't won a race this year but he has been right there against some pretty fine animals at a variety of tracks on two continents. He could go off at a huge price and he's not that far off the rest of this field.
Azamour has run in Europe against really top competition there and has a win at this distance this year.
Shakespeare could be a tragedy in the making - - or he could win the race. He had a knee injury that was thought to be career ending; he was off more than a year and then returned to the races – successfully. Then he proceeded to set a track record at Belmont for 1 1/8 miles on the turf in a race in September. So, is he fully recovered or is he just ready to break down? He has started five races and won them all…
English Channel has been a very good horse all summer long and might be able to beat this field. If you are going to play a hunch exacta, you'd have to do English Channel with Shakespeare; too bad King's Drama isn't in the race or that would be a great “Across The Pond Trifecta”. English Channel ran a close second to Shakespeare last time out. You cannot ignore him.
Here are two horses I can ignore – and plan to ignore. Silverfoot has yet to win a Grade 1 race and has only one win in five starts at a mile and a half. I'll also ignore Shake The Bank because I have no idea how he is even qualified to be entered here. He did run in the Holiday Inn Express Stakes once; maybe that makes him a smart horse but smart horses are not nearly as interesting as fast horses on Breeders' Cup Day.
The Breeders' Cup Classic:
The Classic is run on the dirt track at a distance of 1 ¼ miles. This is always a great race and some of these have been races you can't forget. This year's field is not one that makes me think this will be a race for the ages, but then again I didn't think Arcangues would win the Classic at 132-1 about 15 years ago.
Saint Liam has beaten some outstanding competition in winning three Grade 1 races this year – and he won those races convincingly and comfortably. The only knock on this horse this year is that he has not excelled at a mile and a quarter distance and there is an unalterable fact about this race - - it will be run at a mile and a quarter distance. He'll likely be the race favorite so I'll probably look to find better value elsewhere. Drawing the outside post will not make his life any easier here either.
Rock Hard Ten looks to be a factor in this race. However, he hasn't raced much since the spring – when he won a bunch of close races against top competition – and conditioning could be a question here. And his draw of the #1 post position is not beneficial to his running style; he'll likely get shuffled back in the pack in the early going and have to find a way off the rail to rally in the middle of the race because it's not likely that the jockey will be able to rate him till the end of the race. He too will probably be at lower odds than I will hope for.
Borego needs to be in the exotic wagers because he is always involved in the race in the late stages, but he just doesn't win all that often. In fact, he has only won one race at the Grade 1 level. He likes to run late and wants to see a fast pace for the first 6 furlongs. He might be good enough to win it all and should carry a decent price. I want to have him in our mix of tickets.
Perfect Drift will be in The Classic for the fourth time on Saturday; he's never been in the money in the previous attempts. However, his record outside The Classic says he is always in the money (except for the Belmont Stakes 3 years ago). I don't think he can win; he'll have to struggle to hit the board; but if he does hit the board, the exacta will be hefty.
For a longshot, I think you could do worse than Choctaw Nation who also can run late in a race and should have a decent pace to run at.
I'll throw out Sir Shackleton here because he has not won at this distance and this is not the field for him to conquer in his first mile and a quarter victory. I don't think Sun King or A Bit O' Gold stand much of a chance either and for the life of me, I cannot understand why the owner of Starcraft paid $800K to enter him in this race instead of The Mile. Finally, I used to work with an outstanding man named Jack Sullivan; looking at the form for his equine namesake, I think the guy I worked with would stand about the same chance of running in and winning this race as the horse does.
So, there it is. Check out the races on TV on Saturday or – better yet – find a local racetrack or sports bar and watch the races with a crowd around you. The racing is always good – even though sometimes the cashing of tickets isn't quite so good.
Good luck.
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