It is that time of year again. The sportsbooks in Las Vegas are ready to take serious action on football games between now and the first Sunday in February 2007. They will have lines and propositions on every NFL game that does not have some very unusual circumstance surrounding it. And the betting public will get in line to do just that - - bet.
I'm going to begin with my annual admonishment. There are 256 regular season NFL games; then there are 11 NFL playoff games. Not only are you under no obligation to wager on all of them, there is no way that you ought to think of wagering on all of them. It is even OK to watch a game on TV without having any action riding on it. There's no "Man Law" out there saying you have to have "a little something going" in order to enjoy a football game.
Gambling can become a problem for some folks and it can have some serious negative consequences for those folks with a problem and their families. One way to sense the onset of a potential problem is when someone starts betting on way too many events or feels as if the event is somehow diminished in importance if he does not have a bet on it. Please be sensitive to all this and pick and choose the games you wager on and the amounts of money you put at risk.
I will make a pick of some kind in every game only because I am doing it on paper. In no way would I even think of betting on more than a handful of games every week if the bets were to involve real and negotiable coin-of-the-realm. I urge you to behave in a similarly restrained fashion - no matter how "hot" you think you are or are due to become…
The mythical wagers here will be $110 to win $100 in every game - unless I'm playing a money line bet where I will specify the amount of the wager or unless I'm playing a parlay where the standard parlay wager will be $100.
If you've followed these prognostications for the past couple of years, you know better than to use anything here as the basis for picking a side in a wager or as the basis for making the decision to bet on a specific game. Anyone doing anything like that is really stupid - stupid enough to think that the Epistles were the wives of the Apostles.
Thursday (9/7/06)
Miami at Pitts (Pick 'em) (34.5): Never let it be said that the NFL does not understand marketing; you just can't start off the season with a dogbreath game; you have to start with something to get people to sit up and take notice. This game should do just that. As a bettor, you can start off the season by shopping this line. Miami is a 1.5-point favorite in some venues so if you want Pittsburgh, go there for a better line. I like Miami in this one because Charlie Batch is a big step down from Big Ben at QB and because Hines Ward has been nursing a hamstring injury all of the exhibition season. I doubt this game will be an offensive slugfest. I'll take Miami here to win the game without laying any points.
Sun 9/10/06:
Denver - 3.5 at St. Louis (45.5): If the Rams were still Mike Martz' team, I'd play this game OVER in a flash; but I don't yet have a sense for the way the Scott Linehan version of the Rams will call the game, so I'll pass on that activity. However, I really do think the Broncos are the better team here so I'll take them to win and cover on the road. Just a foreshadowing here, I like a lot of road teams this week.
Jets at Tenn - 3 (36): Now here is a dogbreath game; both of these teams probably fantasize about reaching an unattainable goal - winning 8 games this season. Unless you have a blood relative playing in this game, do not wager on it. In fact, unless you have a blood relative playing in this game, do not watch it. Only because I said I would make a pick in every game, I'll take the Jets with the points here. Having typed out the words to that last pick, let me take a moment to go and wash my hands.
Buffalo at N. England - 9 (41): I can't take Buffalo in this game; and if the Pats' defense is ready to play, they could hold a JP Losman offense to next to no points. So betting the total is out of the question. That leaves me with a spread I don't like. So, I'll take the Pats on the money line at - 400 for $400. (I'll win $100 if the Pats win the game).
Balt at Tampa - 3 (33.5): Here you have two very good defenses playing against offenses that don't scare the bejeepers out of anyone. Both teams have playoff aspirations at this moment so both should be ready to play hard right out of the gate. I like this game OVER 33.5; the defenses should score or set up at least 17 points.
Cincy at KC - 3 (46): I really think the wrong team is favored here; I like Cincy better than I like KC even though the Chiefs are at home and they always play better at home. I'll play Cincy on the money line at +140 for $100. And I'll take Cincy with the points too.
Seattle - 6 at Detroit (45): As of Wednesday morning this week, the game was not sold out in Detroit; the season opener could be blacked out. Detroit is a good sports town so that might give you an indication of how frustrated those fans are with this team and its management. Or maybe the city is too enraptured with the Detroit Shock and their showdown with Sacramento in the WNBA Finals to divert their attention to anything else. Yeah, right! This game could be an early indicator of just how tough the Lions are this year after surviving the boot camp version of training camp. I don't think they will be tough enough. I'll take the Seahawks to win and cover.
Atlanta at Carolina - 6 (39.5): I do like Carolina here and I'm really glad the spread is not 6.5. I see lots of points on the board in this game. So, I'll take the Panthers and lay the points and I'll take the game OVER 39.5. No parlay of those bets.
Philly - 4 at Houston (37): This line varies all over the place; if you like the Texans, you can find the game at 5 points in several places and at 5.5 in one place. I don't like the Texans here so I'll take Philly and lay 4 points. I also like this game OVER 37. No parlay.
New Orleans at Cleveland - 3 (36): If the detainees at Guantanmo were forced to watch this game, I believe an international tribunal might find that action to be a violation of the Geneva Convention. This may be the only time Cleveland is favored in a game until 29 October when the Jets come to Cleveland. I know that players and coaches say they focus on one game at a time, but the Saints might want to check the schedule. They open with the Browns and then the Packers; that is the most benign part of their schedule for the whole season. They won't win many games in any case, but it would behoove these guys to win at least one of these first two games. It won't be this one. I'll take the Browns and lay the points. I won't be doing that very often this season.
Dallas at Jax - 3 (36): Here are two good teams led by two very good defenses. In a low scoring game, I usually prefer to take the points and I'll do just that here. I want Dallas and the points, please.
Chicago - 3.5 at Green Bay (35): If I take Chicago here, that will be the eighth road team I've taken in this week - - and there are more games to come. So what, I can't take Green Bay against the Bears' defense even though I think it will be a low scoring game and it would be nice to have more than a field goal's worth of points in my picket. Give me the Bears to win and cover here.
SF at Arizona - 7.5 (42): The Cards have an explosive offense and the Niners' defense is suspect until it shows that it is light-years better than it was last year. But the Cards defense is only marginally better than the Niners' defense. The Cards should be up for the game in their new stadium and playing in front of a full house in Arizona for the first time ever. So I see points being scored and I want the game OVER 42.
Indy - 3 at Giants (48.5): The NFL knows better than to begin its new Sunday Night Football relationship with NBC with a dogbreath game. And so, they will present this game between two good teams. You saw in my pre-season analysis that I don't think the Giants will do much this year because of the brutal schedule they have, but this game should be really, really good. I like 'older brother" to beat "little brother" here because I still think the Giants' defense is suspect. I'll take Indy as the ninth visiting team of the week and lay the points.
Monday 9/11/06
Monday will mark the five-year anniversary of the attack on the World Trade Center in NY and on the Pentagon here in the DC area. The Redskins open at home; I suspect there will be a lot of terrorism retrospective on that day and on that telecast. However, here's what I will not be able to abide.
The ESPN folks show us footage of the collapse of one of the World Trade Towers as part of the retrospective.
As they come back to live audio, Joe Theismann chimes in with, "Let me tell you what just happened there…"
That must not be allowed to go out on the airwaves; someone in the ESPN truck has to have his finger on the dump-button at that moment.
Minnesota at Wash - 4.5 (35): The problem with betting the total here is that I don't have any idea if Clinton Portis can play at all on Monday night (affecting the Washington offense significantly) nor do I know if Shawn Springs will be able to play (affecting the Washington defense significantly). If Springs is out and Mike Rumph has to play CB for the Skins and if Rumph gets beaten deep, I wonder if Tony Kornheiser will tell us that Rumph got roasted? I like the Redskins to win and cover here. (NOTE: This game starts early; it will be on at 7:00 PM EDT.)
San Diego - 3 at Oakland (43): Yes, there is a doubleheader on MNF to start the season. The Raiders are a mess whilst San Diego had to deal with those dreaded "distractions" this week as starting linebacker Steve Foley was shot three times. Until I see differently on the field, I will continue to believe that the Raiders' defense is porous and pitiful indicating to me that the Chargers ought to be able to light up the scoreboard. I like this game OVER 43 and I like the Chargers to win and cover. No parlays though.
Good luck.
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