It is that time of year again. The sportsbooks in Las Vegas are ready to take serious action on football games between now and the first Sunday in February 2007. They will have lines and propositions on at least 30 NCAA football games every week. And the betting public will get in line to do just that - - bet.
I'm going to begin with my annual admonishment. There will be multiple hundreds of games on the board for which the books will take action and there will be dozens of games per weekend that will be available for TV viewing via the various satellite TV "packages" out there. Not only are you under no obligation to wager on all of them, there is no way that you ought to think of wagering on all of them. It is even OK to watch a game on TV without having any action riding on it. There's no "Man Law" out there saying you have to have "a little something going" in order to enjoy a football game.
Gambling can become a problem for some folks with some serious negative consequences for those folks and their families. One way to sense the onset of a potential problem is when someone starts betting on way too many events or feels as if the event is somehow diminished in importance if he does not have a bet on it. Please be sensitive to all this and pick and choose the games you wager on and the amounts of money you put at risk. And please be very wary if you are tempted to increase significantly the amount of money you are putting at risk because you lost badly the last two weeks and you think that assures that you are about to "get hot" for the next couple of weeks. If that thought crosses your mind and lingers for more than a millisecond, please get professional counseling. And get that counseling before you get down on the games for that weekend…
The mythical wagers here will be $110 to win $100 in every game - unless I'm playing a money line bet where I will specify the amount of the wager or unless I'm playing a parlay where the standard parlay wager will be $100.
If you've followed these prognostications for the past couple of years, you know better than to use anything here as the basis for picking a side in a wager or as the basis for making the decision to bet on a specific game. Anyone doing anything like that is really dumb - dumb enough to lose a one-man game of Hide and Go Seek.
General Comments:
People are already picking up on the fact that West Virginia could waltz its way to an undefeated season this year - - as I warned you about three weeks ago - - and that might cause some major BCS controversy regarding the "National Title Game". With the injury to Louisville's RB, Michael Bush, the only really good opponent for West Virginia is now crippled. Here's the real problem; it may not be politically correct to discuss it openly but what the hey… Since Miami, BC and Va Tech defected from the Big East, the Big East is no longer a conference worthy of BCS status any more than the Mountain West Conference is worthy of that status. The only way the Big East has upgraded in the past several years was when it kicked Temple out of the conference - a classic example of adding by subtracting. The BCS mavens need to give the Big East the boot and figure out another way to dole out the BCS bowl game slots.
Oh, by the way, the ACC devotees should be very concerned with the quality of that conference this year from top to bottom. There are a lot of creaky programs at the bottom. Last week, Duke was shut out by a Division 1-AA opponent (Richmond); North Carolina lost at home to Rutgers, Virginia rolled over and played dead against a mediocre Pitt team; Maryland won a close game over a Division 1-AA opponent (William and Mary); and NC State struggled to beat a Division 1-AA opponent (Appalachian State). There's a word for that kind of conference performance; the word is pathetic.
Since I mentioned Temple above, I want to be sure you know that Temple and Buffalo played to a 3-3 tie in regulation last week and took that disaster of a game to overtime. The teams combined to be 8-27 on third down in that game; Buffalo had the ball inside the Temple 20 on three occasions in regulation time and scored no points; Temple had a total of 183 yards of offense for the game. Here is a perfect justification for college rule makers to want to shorten the game.
According to first week stats, games this year had about 14 fewer plays than last year and scoring was down on average just under 5 points per game. So much for the doomsday predictions, the games will survive just fine thank you.
While loads of people are shouting that Notre Dame is over-rated and will never contend for the national championship this year after eking out a win at Georgia Tech, I'd urge those folks to look at the world through the other end of the telescope. Notre Dame could have opened up its season with two Division 1-AA opponents and Temple; instead, it scheduled Georgia Tech, Penn State (this week) and Michigan (next week). Maybe the naysayers are correct and Notre Dame will go only 9-3 this year, but give them credit for playing real teams. The soft part of their schedule comes later against UNC, Army, Navy and Air Force. That's not murderer's row by any means, but compare it to the Texas A&M schedule, which opened with The Citadel and then moves on to Louisiana Lafayette, Army and Louisiana Tech.
I hope folks remember that Lee Corso looked into the camera and said that Cal was going to win the National Championship this year. After the Golden Bears' bedwetting performance at Tennessee last weekend, they will be fortunate to finish third in the PAC-10.
Games of Interest:
Last year I tracked the games with huge spreads - I called them Ponderosa Spreads - just to see if the favorites covered a significant fraction of the time. They covered just over 50% of the time but not enough to show a profit had one used that as a system bet. For definition purposes, a Ponderosa Spread is 24 points or more. Here are six such games for this week:
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Louisville - 40.5 at Temple
Troy at Florida State - 29.5
Utah State at Arkansas - 28.5
Rice at UCLA - 27.5
Central Michigan at Michigan - 27.5
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State - 25.5
Central Florida at Florida - 23.5 (50): This is almost a Ponderosa Spread and Jerry Greene of the Orlando Sentinel picks Central Florida to win the game outright. Now there would be a money line wager to set you up for the rest of the season! I'll give Jerry Greene a tip of the hat and take Central Florida here with the points - not on the money line - because these are Mythical Picks. For actual cash money, I'd pass this game as quickly as I'd pass a dead skunk on the highway.
Rice at UCLA - 27.5 (56): Rice lost to Houston last weekend and Houston is mediocre at best. UCLA is in the Top 25 right now and aspires to a major bowl appearance this year with double digit wins. I'll take UCLA at home to pour it on in this one
Penn State at Notre Dame - 8.5 (46): I was underwhelmed by the Notre Dame offense last week and I saw Georgia Tech throw the ball effectively for much of the game against the Notre Dame defense. I think Penn State is a tougher opponent for Notre Dame - even considering that the game is in South Bend. I think the game will be low scoring and so I'll take Penn State with that generous helping of points.
(Fri. Nite) Pitt - 7.5 at Cincinnati (43.5): Pitt is not all that good but Cincinnati is really bad - maybe worse than Syracuse. Even on the road, Pitt should cover this number comfortably. I'll take Pitt and lay the points.
Va Tech - 12 at UNC (42): UNC lost at home last week to Rutgers. Everyone says that Rutgers has turned its program around under a new coaching regime but I don't think anyone has said yet that Rutgers is a Top 10 team. Va Tech may not be a Top 10 team, but they are definitely a Top 20 team. I want Va Tech to win and cover here.
Auburn - 20 at Mississippi State (39.5): South Carolina shut out Mississippi State last week in Starkeville and the Bulldogs lost their starting QB. The replacement QB - a redshirt freshman - looked very confused. Auburn has a chance to play for the SEC Championship and maybe the National Championship. The outcome of this game should not be in doubt by the middle of the second quarter. I'll take Auburn and lay the points.
Good luck.
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