Well, I was on the right track picking lots of teams on the road last weekend. Road teams won 11 of the 16 opening games. Sadly, I didn't get all the right road victors when it comes to covering the spread. Including my two money line mythical wagers from last week, I went 9-11 for the weekend and came out with a deficit of $200 mythical dollars for the week.
In honor of the defensive line coach of the Detroit Lions, Joe Cullen, who was arrested for driving naked through a Wendy's take-out window, I want to tell you that I am typing out these picks in the nude. Let's just say, that gives new meaning to the phrase, full disclosure.
Double-digit spreads in the NFL are not nearly as prevalent as they are in college football, but this week is an exception. Using the early Las Vegas lines, there are five games with spreads of 10 or more and another game with a 9.5 point spread. If you can pick an underdog in one of those games to win it outright and play it on the money line, you should have a profitable weekend. Underdogs covered 10 of the 16 games last weekend and 7 of those underdogs won outright. Let me know if you see one of those double-digit dogs that can win, OK?
Naturally, no one reading this offering would even think of using any information herein as the basis for making a wager on an actual NFL contest if that wager involved the risking of negotiable currency. You'd have to be dumb enough to get run over by a parked car to do that.
Oakland at Baltimore - 11.5 (33.5): It can't be that the Raiders are as bad as they showed last Monday night; the only thing they did right all evening was remembering to put on their pants before taking the field. Baltimore's defense can't be as good as it looked on Sunday - - or can it? When I think a game will be low scoring, I usually want to take the points; but in this game, the Raiders may not score. The Ravens will score because the Raiders' defense couldn't stop a gentle breeze. I'll take the Ravens to win and cover - for mythical purposes only. By the way, the money line here for the Raiders to win outright is +770
Houston at Indy - 13.5 (47): On one hand, that line looks fat; on the other hand the Texans lost at home to the Eagles by 14 last weekend. Now the Texans go on the road to play a better team then they faced last weekend. Here's the deal. The Eagles defense is better than the Colts' defense so Houston should put more than 10 points up on the board against the Colts this week. But Indy's offense should have its way with the Texans' defense. So, I'll take the game OVER 47 and I'll take the Colts to win and cover. No parlay. By the way, the money line here for Houston to win outright is +1200
Cleveland at Cincy - 10 (42): There was a time when the Cleveland Browns were a top-shelf NFL franchise. Then the politicos in Cleveland and the previous owner of the Browns got crosswise with one another and those Browns left town and went on to win a Super Bowl in Baltimore. The NFL put another franchise in Cleveland - call them the Browns-Redux - and so far, that team can't get out of its own way; given their opening performance at home against the pathetic Saints last week, the Browns-Redux may have to readjust their aspirations and strive to have only the second overall pick in next year's NFL Draft. My hesitancy in laying the points here is that the Browns do like to run the ball and the Bengals are not the best run defense in the league by any stretch of the imagination. So, Cincy's offense may not see the field all that many times. But I can't take the Browns and I can't count on them to score so I won't play the over/under, so reluctantly, I will take the Bengals and lay the points. By the way, the money line here for the Browns to win outright is a measly +550
Buffalo at Miami - 6 (37): It's litmus test time. Based on last weeks games, is the Miami offense as bad as the Steelers made it look? Is the Miami defense actually better than the one that allowed Charlie Batch to throw for three touchdowns? Is the Bills' defense rock solid after holding the Pats' offense in check for most of last weekend or is the Pats' offense severely in decline? And just how bad is the Bills' offense? We may not have all the lab results in immediately after this game is over, but here's what I think. The Dolphins will maul the Bills this week; the Bills may exact some revenge in Buffalo come December; but this weekend, I want the Dolphins to win and cover. I(f you like Buffalo, shop the line; you can find it at 6.5 in several places.
Detroit at Chicago - 9.5 (32.5): Forget the nonsense of Detroit's Roy Williams guaranteeing a Lions' win in this game. That's just blather. The fact is that the Bears' offense is not all that good and that line is very fat. Here's a low scoring game where I will take Lions with the points because I expect Detroit to score 13-17 points and I don't think Chicago will be able to get into the high 20s. By the way, the money line for the Lions to win outright - as guaranteed by Roy Williams - is currently at +500. Even for mythical purposes I won't take this as a money line bet, but if you forced me to pick one of the real long shot winners this week, this would be it.
Carolina - 2 at Minnesota (37.5): Minnesota looked awfully good on Monday night considering they have a totally new offensive system and an ancient QB. Carolina spit the bit against the Falcons. I know Steve Smith was missing and that might explain the pathetic offensive show they put on, but they surrendered more than 250 yards rushing to the Falcons and the Panthers' defense is supposed to be an elite one. All the football mavens said that rookie RB, DeAngelo Williams, would be a difference maker for the Panthers; last week he never touched the ball on offense. I'm making this selection way before game time and so I'm going to assume that Smith's hamstring will keep him out of the game on Sunday and I'll take the Vikes with the points here.
Giants at Philly - 3 (42): In addition to this being a divisional game, it is an important one because a Giants' loss here puts them two games behind the Eagles with an upcoming schedule of at Seattle, bye week, Washington, at Atlanta, at Dallas, Tampa Bay. If the Giants aren't up for this game, their season could be headed for the wastewater treatment plant. The Eagles looked solid and workmanlike against the Texans last week; they'll need to be better this week because the Giants are a better team than Houston. I like the game OVER 42. If you like an "under bet" shop this line because you can find it at 43 in several places.
Tampa at Atlanta - 6 (35): Atlanta shredded the Carolina defense last week; Baltimore shredded the Tampa defense last week. I think the Bucs' defense plays a lot better this weekend. To say that the Bucs' offense should play a lot better than last weekend is not setting the bar very high; they gained all of 26 yards rushing last week. I see this as a rebound game for Tampa because I think they are fundamentally a good team with a sound foundation. I'll take Tampa with the points here, and I'll take the game OVER 35. No parlay.
New Orleans - 2 at Green Bay (38.5): Hold your nose while you read about this one; it is the stinkeroo of the week. If you are going to watch this game on TV, be sure to have a gas mask on at all times. If you actually want to take the Saints as a road favorite or if you actually want to take the Packers and get only two points, you might need an intervention to get you into a twelve-step program. I said I'd make a pick in every game so I'll take this game UNDER 38.5. OK, that's enough; who had the chili with sauerkraut for lunch? That's really nasty…
St. Louis - 3 at SF (44): Yes, it's a divisional game. Yes, the Rams and 49ers have had a longstanding rivalry. No, I can't get excited about this game and I doubt lots of fans outside SF or St. Louis will either. I'll gaze into my crystal ball here - sadly, it has all the transparency of a bowling ball - and take the 49ers with the points at home.
Arizona at Seattle - 7 (47): The Seahawks will score more than 9 points this week; after all the Cardinals let the 49ers have 27 points last weekend. The Cards will score less than 34 points this weekend; the Seattle defense is just a bit better than the 49ers defense. I don't like the total in this game and I really wish the spread were under a full touchdown. It may move in that direction as the week progresses. I'll take the Seahawks to win and cover here but not with any great confidence.
New England - 5 at Jets (37): I don't know if the animosity between these franchises predates the Bill Parcells defection from the Pats' Super Bowl team of the nineties to the Jets or not. But these two franchises seem always to be at each other's throats and now the Pats have filed a tampering charge against the Jets. On the sidelines, you have the mentor and the student going against each other. That sounds like it ought to be a good game, but it probably won't be. The Pats aren't as good as they have been in recent years but the Jets are not good at all. I'll take the Pats to win and cover here but not with any great confidence. If you like the Jets, shop this line because it was at 6 in two different places and at 5.5 in several others.
Tennessee at San Diego - 11 (37): The Chargers defensive line simply mauled the Raiders on Monday night. They didn't need to blitz; they just rushed four guys and clobbered whatever QB was back there. Kerry Collins might just finish behind a beached whale in a 100-meter dash; if the Titans' OL isn't really on its game, Collins will be on his back like Jenna Jameson in a double feature. The Titans needed to recover a fumble at the one-yard line last week to set up their second of two scores; that is a bad omen given the Chargers' defense. It's a lot of points, but I have to take San Diego here and lay the points. By the way, the money line here for the Titans to win outright is only +600. If I were going to play the money line in this game - which I will not even for mythical purposes - I would go the other way.
KC at Denver - 10.5 (39.5): I know that Damon Huard has a winning record in games he has started in the NFL. Nevertheless, I'm not looking for KC to do much on offense here because I think Denver will load up to stop the run and make Huard try to win the game instead of trying to orchestrate the game. I really don't see a way for him to win the game. The way for Denver to take it in the shorts is for Jake Plummer to have another game with four turnovers. If he does that, I'm going to give him the Martha Stewart Award for turnovers. I don't like the KC defense a whole lot so I'll assume Plummer can find ways not to lose this game. I'll take the Bronx and lay the points. By the way, the money line here for the Chiefs to win the game outright is +575. The two operative words at this point ought to be "not" and "happening".
(Sun Nite) Washington at Dallas - 6.5 (37.5): The loser here is 0-2; why is that a big deal? Well, both of these teams - and their fans - have Super Bowl aspirations; and to get to the Super Bowl, you have to make the playoffs. Since the NFL went to 16 game schedules, there have been 312 playoff teams and only 25 of them started out the season at 0-2. It can be overcome but it's not easy. You have two volatile owners involved in these teams; neither is guaranteed to do something rational if their team starts out at 0-2. I see a low scoring game and a line that is fatter than Dom DeLuise. I'll take the Redskins with the points. Let the game go to OT and I'll be a happy camper at that point…
(Mon) Pittsburgh - 2 at Jax (36.5): This is the best game of the weekend and this line is all over the map. If you like Jax, you can find the game as high as Pittsburgh - 2. There was one online sportsbook that had this line at Jax - 1 for a while on Tuesday night but that line disappeared quickly; it's a "pick 'em game" at that website now. Who knows what the line will be at game time? In addition, who knows which QB will start for Pittsburgh - or which QB will finish the game? I'll assume it's Charlie Batch for the Steelers and on that basis I'll take Jax with the points at home.
Good luck.
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