To steal one of Dan Patrick's old SportsCenter lines, last weekend my Mythical Picks were en fuego. For the week, I was 12-4, which shows a mythical profit of $760. That brings the season totals to 32-22 for a net mythical profit of $890.
If anyone looks at that data and concludes that I am "on a hot streak" and therefore ought to increase my wagers to take advantage of that hot streak, that person should do one of two things:
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a. Go to a local community college and take a course in probability and statistics.
b. Haul carcass to the nearest twelve-step program for gambling addicted folks.
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a. Go to a local community college and take a course in probability and statistics.
b. Haul carcass to the nearest twelve-step program for gambling addicted folks.
Three teams who had Super Bowl aspirations have this week off to lick their wounds and try to figure out what's gone so wrong with them this year. The Giants, Steelers and Bucs are a combined 2-7; the Bucs' season is already traversing the U-shaped plumbing trap and headed for the sewer; the Giants and Steelers need to make some fundamental changes to avoid a similar fate. Perhaps they'll use the off week to experience a Zen moment…
Indy - 9 at Jets (46): The Jets' defense was AWOL last week; they allowed Buffalo to amass 300 yards passing and one RB to go over 100 yards. And they still won the game. The same kind of defensive performance this weekend will make the Colts' score look like a basketball game. Meanwhile, Chad Pennington has been moving the Jets up and down the field and the Colts' defense hasn't been anything to instill shock and awe during opposing coaches' film study. I like this game OVER.
San Diego - 2.5 at Baltimore (33): If you want to make the case that this is the best game on the schedule this weekend, I think you have an argument to make. So far, the Ravens are undefeated against the likes of Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa. This week's opponent is also undefeated and represents a significant step up in class both in terms of offensive capability and in terms of defensive prowess. Nevertheless, this game should be very low scoring; it might even be 10-9; both teams have pitched a shutout already this year. So, I'll take the Ravens with the points here.
Minnesota at Buffalo - 1.5 (34): OK, so is the Buffalo offense for real or was their outburst last week a product of a somnambulant Jets' defense? Minnesota's defense has played well so far this year, so maybe we'll find out this week. Minnesota is 2-1 this year and all three games have been decided by a 3-point margin. I'm not sold on the Bills' competence yet and so I'll take the Vikes on the road with the points.
Dallas - 9.5 at Tennessee (37.5): The Cowboys had an uneventful bye week going into this week's preparation for the Titans when the Terrell Owens "Suicide Circus" blew into town. Unless "attempted suicide" is contagious, about a half-dozen of the Cowboys starters catch it and they all carry it out successfully, the Cowboys will win here. But that line looks fat to me even if T.O. plays in the game and approaches the performance you'd expect of him when he's physically healthy. I'll take the Titans with the points at home.
SF at KC - 7.5 (40.5): These are not great teams but they are spared the ignominy of playing in the worst of the Stink-o-rama games this weekend. This game only rates 3 Skunks on the stench meter. KC has had offensive woes but the 49ers defense should raise the Chiefs offensive self-esteem. SF can move the ball when the offense is healthy - which it isn't this week. I don't like the line but I do like this game OVER.
New Orleans at Carolina - 7 (41.5): When Philadelphia radio "personality", Howard Eskin, says that "this line is talking to me", I always want to urge him to see someone about those voices he hears in his head. Nevertheless, this line tells me that the sportsbooks really want people to take the Saints and they fear they will have very unbalanced ledgers. Otherwise, why would the undefeated team who just wowed the nation with a huge win last Monday night be a full touchdown underdog? I see the Saints coming down off their adrenaline high and the Panthers are on the rise. So, I'll take the Panthers to win and cover here. I suspect this could be a blowout game.
Arizona at Atlanta - 7 (40): Some Falcon fans believe that the NFL paid off the Falcons to take a dive last Monday in New Orleans; that's what they've said on message boards hosted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. I don't believe that for a minute. I do believe that the Cards' defense will not be able to contain the Falcons offense. And I do believe that Arizona has humongous QB problems. In the wild, falcons devour cardinals; it doesn't happen the other way around. In the wild, 1 Skunk can ruin a picnic; on TV, this game can ruin an afternoon; so this game gets a 1 Skunk rating on the Stink-o-rama scale. Taking Arizona on the road is the same as taking a shortcut to the poorhouse. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover here.
Miami - 3 at Houston (40): David Carr is the QB with the highest rating in the NFL at the moment; any bets he won't be there by the end of the season? Mark Brunell humiliated the Texans' defense last week. It's not so bad when Donovan McNabb or Peyton Manning lights up your defense; they are top-shelf QBs, but Mark Brunell? The Texans' defense either will curl up in a fetal position now or will come out roaring. The Titans defense sacked the highly immobile Duante Culpepper five times last week; that should provide inspiration and motivation for the Texans' defense, which is giving up 484 yards per game this year. Give this game 4 Skunks on the Stink-o-rama scale. I just tossed a coin and it came up that I should take the game OVER 40.
Detroit at St. Louis - 5 (43): I'll trot out only 2 Skunks for this game on the Stench meter - but they are two really big skunks with an attitude. The Rams haven't been scoring a lot this year but just when the offense might be feeling a bit down on itself, the Lions roll into town. The Lions are awful on the road and that says a lot because the Lions are pretty bad at home too. Last week, their defense managed to resuscitate the comatose Green Bay offense. Meanwhile, Detroit's offense is now under the tutelage of Mike Martz who may just have some animus toward the Rams and the way they cut him loose last year. As awful as this game is, I'll take the Rams to win and cover here and I'll take the game OVER. No parlay though…
New England at Cincy - 5.5 (46): You could talk me into calling this the best game of the week even though I have a different candidate for that honor. Cincy wants to let the world know they have arrived as an elite team; and after beating Pittsburgh last week, they would like to knock off New England this week. The Pats are not as good as they have been in recent years on offense or defense and they don't look nearly as confident in their game as they have in recent years. I like Cincy to win and cover here. I also like this game OVER. If you are playing this game shop both the line and the total; there are lots of variances in those numbers from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Jax - 3 at Washington (34): The Redskins are the most penalized team in the NFL - partly because Oakland has only played two games so far. The Skins have been penalized 30 times in 3 games for 298 yards. Even against Houston, they were penalized 12 times for 126 yards and that's the highest total so far in 2006. Mark Brunell will not complete 24 of 27 passes this week, but he'll have to throw because the Skins won't run the ball much against the Jags' defense. Meanwhile, the Skins defense ought to be able to keep Jax in check too. Look for a defensive game where field position will be very important. In a low scoring game, I'll take the Redskins with the points.
Cleveland - 2.5 at Oakland (34): This game is the atrocity of the week. It merits the full 5 Skunks on the Malodorous Meter. If the good people of Oakland are lucky, this game will not sell out and the game would be blacked out in the area. Does anyone really want to see Charlie Frye and Andrew Walter slug it out here? Both of these teams are awful and one of them will mistakenly think of itself as "a winner" after this abomination of a game. The team that thinks of itself as "a winner" will be living in a delusion. The loser of this game is drawing a bead on the #1 overall pick in next April's NFL Draft. I don't want to take the Raiders because they stink. I certainly will not take the Browns on the road and lay points against any other team that also collects paychecks for playing football. I don't trust either offense or defense enough to make a call on the total here. So, I'll hold my nose and take the Raiders with the points here.
Seattle at Chicago - 3.5 (34.5): With deference to the Pats/Bengals game and the Chargers/Ravens game, I think this is the best game of the weekend. Seattle's offense woke up last week against the Giants defense. This week, the Bears' defense will present them with far more difficulties. Meanwhile, the Chicago offense has not run the ball well and seems to be relying on Rex Grossman's arm to move the ball and produce points. I'm not sure that's going to work all that well against a Seattle defense that may not be as good as Chicago's but is still very good. Look for defense and field position to dominate this game. Look for John Madden to punctuate lots of big hits with his trademark, "BOOM!" Look for Seattle to cover here; and so, I'll take Seattle with the points in a low scoring game.
Green Bay at Philly - 11 (48): The Packers offense woke up last week - but that was against the Lions. I think they regress this week. Meanwhile, who says the Eagles need T.O.? Even though they haven't faced the fiercest of defenses, it is still worth noting that the Eagles lead the NFL in passing. Donovan McNabb has averaged over 300 yards per game and has completed over 60 percent of his passes. Since I don't see the Packers with an elite defense, I see no reason for these kinds of outputs to stop. This line is fat and it does give me pause, but I can't take the Packers here so I'll take the Eagles to win and cover.
Good luck.
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