The NFL Mythical Picks showed a teeny-weeny profit last week, the minimum profit that could have arisen from making 16 picks and wagering the same amount on each game. That's hardly exciting but it beats taking a loss. There's an old adage on Wall Street that no one ever went broke by taking a small profit at the end of each and every week.
The record for last week was 9-7, which translates to a mythical profit of $130. That brings the totals for the year to 41-29 and a mythical profit of $1020.
Of course, no one will be seduced by these results into taking any information here as gospel truth and using that truth as the basis for making a real wager. You'd have to be really stupid to do that, stupid enough to try to bake a double batch of cookies at 700 degrees.
For the past couple of weeks, I've used the Stink-o-rama scale from 1-5 Skunks to indicate five bad games. This week, one game is so significantly worse than all of the other games on the board that I am going to award all 15 of the Skunks to that single game. That's 15 Skunks for a single game. If you have a ticket to see the game, give it to a homeless person who hasn't bathed in four weeks; he'll fit right in… Stay tuned to see which game it might be if you haven't scoped it out already.
Tennessee at Indy - 18 (48): A spread this big happens once or twice a year. The thing to note is that these same two teams will meet on December 3 and so we may see this kind of spread again on this same match-up. The Titans' defense is ranked 30th in the league; I think it's pretty clear in any football fan's mind that the Colts' offense is more competent than that. Indy's defense is not all that good, but they won't have to be against Vince Young and his "kindergarten offense". Believe it or not, both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison have yet to catch a TD pass this season; that drought will end on Sunday afternoon. This game is not worth betting but since I promised to make a pick in every game, I just flipped my coin and it says to take Indy and lay the points. [Shudder!]
Washington at Giants - 5 (45.5): This will be a good game because the Giants/Redskins games are almost always good games. Nevertheless, the wrong team is favored here. The Redskins will exploit the Giants' less than impressive defense this week - despite the less than fully positive record that Joe Gibbs' teams may have in Giants' Stadium. The Giants are in a must-win situation even though this is the first week of October; they are already sucking wind in the NFC East standings and their upcoming schedule calls for road games in Atlanta and Dallas. If they lose here and go on to lose that pair on the road, they'll be 1-5 and "playing for pride". I really don't know - or particularly care - if Jeremy Shockey was right or not in terms of the Giants being "outcoached" two weeks ago. That will take a long time to figure out and this game is this weekend, so here's what I know for a flat fact: The Giants' defense has allowed 92 points in three games and that just plain stinks. The Giants have had two weeks to get their game straight; it's time for the players on the field to shut up and play like winners. The problem with that last statement is that I'm not sure they are winners. I'll take the Skins here with the points. I'd even be tempted to take the Skins on the money line if those odds went higher than they are now, but I'll resist the temptation at the current prices.
Detroit at Minnesota - 6.5 (39.5): To date in this season, the Vikes have yet to play a game where the winning team beat the losing team by more than 5 points. If you are a "trend bettor" that makes this game an easy pick. The problem is that the Vikes just don't score lots of points whether it's against a really good defense such as Chicago's or against a really mediocre defense such as Miami's. I do not like the Lions even a little bit this year, but that line is fat. So, I'll take the Lions with the points.
Tampa at New Orleans - 7 (35): Please don't bet on this game for real. The Bucs have a completely unknown QB and the Saints may or may not be more competent than an NFL Europe team. If Tampa can get two TDs, this game goes Over easily; if Tampa scores 6 points, this game goes Under. If Tampa can score two TDs, they may not win but they ought to cover. You see the fundamental question here is; can Tampa get into the end zone twice - by hook or by crook. My guess is yes because I think the Saints are a "feelgood story" but not a "good football team". Only because this is a mythical bet, I'll take the game OVER.
St. Louis - 3 at Green Bay (48): You saw the Packers on Monday night and their offense was "better than impotent" - - but not by much. However, that was against the Eagles' defense, which is better than the Rams' defense by more than a little bit. And the Rams just don't play all that well on grass or on the road. The Rams are indeed 3-1 in the standings but their loss was to SF [bad team] and two of their three wins were over Arizona and Detroit [two more bad teams]. Pardon me if I don't gasp over those accomplishments. I want this game UNDER.
Miami at New England - 9.5 (36.5): Miami has stunk at home and they have stunk on the road. Miami has stunk against good teams and they have stunk against bad teams. Do you see a trend here? Miami QB, Duante Culpepper has already been sacked 21 times this year in 4 games including 6 sacks last week against the Houston Texans. The record for sacks in a season is 76; Miami is on pace to shatter that record by more than 10%. New England isn't what it was for the past three years, but they don't stink. Lots of people fell in love with the Dolphins during the summertime and those folks haven't yet seen that this team is overflowing with flaws. I just don't like the spread here, so I'll take the game OVER.
Buffalo at Chicago - 8 (34): J.P. Losman hasn't yet seen a defense like this one. I don't think he'll want to see it again any time soon. The Bears absolutely shut down Seattle's offense and no one will confuse Seattle's offensive prowess with Buffalo's. I'll take the Bears to win and cover here. If you like the Bills, shop this line because it varies all over the reservation. You can find it at 10 in one place and at 9.5 in a couple of other places. If this game were played in mid-December in Chicago at zero degrees with the wind howling in off of Lake Michigan, it might wind up 9-3; I'm tempted to take the game Under, but I'll resist that temptation.
Cleveland at Carolina - 8 (38): The Panthers probably aspired to the NFC Championship Game during training camp and that was not a completely unrealistic expectation. Then they sucked wind in the first two games. Now, the Panthers need to be sure they play efficiently and effectively in order to stay in the NFC playoff picture. They are digging themselves out from the hole they dug for themselves and then fell into. Having said that, Cleveland isn't any good; they won a game last week only because Oakland barfed it into their laps. I'll take the Panthers at home and lay the points.
Jets at Jax - 6.5 (37): Despite the Jags' defense taking gas last week against the Redskins, I like the Jaguars. The problem is that injuries are mounting in Jax and there's not a lot of depth there. I think the Jets' record of 2-2 is the product of smoke and mirrors. I prefer to take the dog with the points in games I think will be low scoring, but I'm not sure that's how this one will play out. I want the Jags to win and cover here - - but let me say this ahead of time: I wish that half point weren't there.
KC - 2.5 at Arizona (39): After the offensive explosion last week, there is a "mini-QB controversy" brewing in KC. Even if Damon Huard overachieved last weekend, there shouldn't be a huge problem here because Larry Johnson should be able to shred this defense like cheese on a grater. KC will probably not shut out any more opponents for the next 2 seasons. Teams can run on the Chiefs' defense and that might be a problem except for the fact that the Cardinals haven't shown they can run on anyone or anything including a defensive line made up of Raggedy Ann dolls. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are better than the Cards - with or without the Cards' own inexperienced/rookie QB - and should win this game comfortably. Give me the Chiefs to win and cover.
Oakland at SF - 3 (40): If you haven't figured out already that this is the game on which I will confer the full 15 Skunk rating for the week, then one of two situations obtain:
1. You're not paying attention.
2. You are the love child of Al Davis and Pink.
This is a monumental struggle between two miserable teams hoping against hope that even the victor will not continue to be identified with the decaying life forms that constitute the basis of the food chain on the deep oceanic abyssal plain. [Note: Some of that decaying life form is whale dooty and it would be a dishonor to whale dooty everywhere on the planet to associate that substance with either of these teams.] To paraphrase the intro to Star Wars, a long time into the future and on a planet far, far away, this game might be marginally meaningful to someone someday. But not here and not now!! My flipped coin has come to rest and it says to take SF and lay the points. [Shudder!]
Dallas at Philly - 3 (44.5): Often the most-hyped game of the week is not the best game of the week; here you may have a game that fits both descriptions. This game is clearly the most hyped game this week. Just in case your name is Rip Van Winkle and you've been asleep for the last decade or two, allow me to fill you in. Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb don't like each other and they'll be playing against one another this week. Can you imagine that? The real problem that the Eagles have is that their secondary is hobbled, Brian Westbrook will play at reduced effectiveness if he plays at all and Donte Stallworth's hamstring is not at 100%. What I cannot understand is why this game has to start at 4:15 in the afternoon. Surely, the NFL had to realize when they made the schedule that the Philly fans would be over the top no matter when they played it. So why did the NFL aid and abet these folks and give them an extra three hours or so to pound down boilermakers prior to entering the stadium and venting their spleen? Shop these numbers; both the spread and the total vary a lot from sportsbook to sportsbook. I think the wrong team is favored here. Despite the venom and creative insults that will be forthcoming from the Philly fans - and their use of their hyperactive middle fingers toward the Cowboys' players while still on the team busses - I like Dallas with the points here.
Yesterday, Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times pointed out something that might cause some confusion for Philadelphia residents this weekend:
"Talk about a ticket buying dilemma for ticket-buying Philadelphians this weekend.
"Will it be 'Jackass Number Two' at the local theater or Jackass Number One at Lincoln Financial Field?"
Pittsburgh at San Diego - 3 (37.5): Pittsburgh has been out of sorts all season long; there are probably a half dozen good reasons for that but until they wake up and play the way they played in 2005, this is a team ambling through the season on reputation. I'll guess that they don't "wake up and start playing like the Steelers of 2005" this week. I think the Chargers will win here and I know full well that this will put the Steelers in a 1-3 hole that they may not be able to climb out from. Give me the better defense here that is playing at home; I want the Chargers to win and cover.
(Mon Nite) Baltimore at Denver - 4.5 (33): Make no mistake, the Ravens are winning and existing on defense. Steve McNair is a good player; but so far, the Ravens remain mired in 28th position in offensive production. And guard, Edwin Mulitalo is out for the year with an arm injury; that won't help anything at all. Meanwhile, Denver has to play against this ferocious defense with Jake Plummer at the helm. Even' Jake's mom will be chewing her cuticles during this game wondering when Jake will either create a massively damaging turnover or get his ass handed to him on a plate. If the Broncos can't run on the Ravens' defense, this game will be ugly for Denver fans and for the Plummer family to watch. I'll take the Ravens with the points in a low scoring affair.
Good luck.
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