Last weekend was another plain vanilla one for Mythical Picks. I went 7-6-1 for the week, which would yield a mythical profit of $40 for the weekend. That's not exactly exciting. For the year, the record is 48-35-1, which gives a mythical profit of $1060.
Recently, I wrote that home field advantage seemed to be evaporating in the NFL - or possibly there would be a large regression to the mean. Last weekend the home team was 12-2. Only the hapless Cardinals and the less than awesome Packers lost at home. Perhaps the regression to the mean has begun.
In addition, the favorites won all fourteen games last weekend. All fourteen of the favorites did not cover the spread but they did pretty well. Had you bet the chalk in every NFL game last weekend you would have gone 10-2-2. If you could go 10-2-2 every weekend in NFL games, you could add a tidy supplement to your income.
Naturally, everyone reading this realizes that past performances have nothing whatsoever to do with future results and so no one will use anything here as the basis for making any actual wagers. Only dumb people do that - people dumb enough to think of bacon as a "health food". Besides, I'm making these picks on Friday the 13th so you know that I have to encounter lots of bad luck with the picks this weekend…
Cincy - 6 at Tampa (43): The Bengals had last weekend off and had two weeks to deal with the spanking they received from the Patriots. The question for the Bengals is did they use the bye week to shore up their rushing defense. They are giving up 144 yards per game on the ground and that won't do for a team with aspirations to go deep in the playoffs. The Bengals need to resist the temptation to look past the Bucs toward a tough stretch in the road ahead - Carolina, Atlanta, Baltimore and San Diego. The Bucs are winless but showed signs of awakening against the Saints last weekend; it took a punt return for a TD for the Saints to beat them in New Orleans. I like the Bucs with the points here.
Tennessee at Washington - 10.5 (38.5): This ought to be a mismatch and mismatches are not interesting games to watch; give this contest 3 Skunks on the Stench Meter. Washington aspires to the playoffs; teams going to the playoffs do not lose to teams like the Titans. This is a must-win game for the Redskins. Skins' defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, has shown a knack for confusing rookie/inexperienced QBs; I expect that will happen this weekend. Tennessee gives up a league worst 172 yards per game on the ground and Clinton Portis ought to pad his stats here; I would not be surprised if the Skins beat that average on Sunday. Those are a lot of points in that spread and I know that Tennessee beat me last week when my coin flip went against them and I had to lay 18 points, but I'll still take the Redskins to win and cover here.
Houston at Dallas - 13.5 (43): The NFL's highest rated QB is in this game and Terrell Owens would be quick to remind you that it is not Drew Bledsoe; David Carr has a QB rating of 108.9 and he is completing 73% of his throws. The Texans had last week off to prepare for their second game ever with the Cowboys. Their last meeting was Houston's first game in the league and they beat the Cowboys in Houston that night. You'd be tempted to call this a "revenge game" except the first meeting was four years ago and lots of the players on both teams weren't there for that game. Dallas had an emotional game last week in Philly and will host the Giants (division rival) next week so this is a classic "sandwich game". I'll take the Texans with the generous helping of points here. Remember Hank Baskett and Reggie Brown burned the Dallas secondary for long scores; this week Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson will be out there. Dallas' pass defense gives up 216 yards per game.
Buffalo - 1.5 at Detroit (40): This is an ugly game. Neither team is any good; neither team has any compelling/interesting story associated with it. This game rates 5 Skunks on the Stench Scale. Last week, the Bills went on the road to Chicago and lost 40-7; their score came in the final minutes of the game so calling it a cosmetic score is actually not that far off base. In no way would I want to suggest that the Lions and Bears are comparable in terms of ability; in fact, I'm not sure that the Lions are comparable with the Bears' practice squad in terms of ability. But I won't play the Bills on the road this week so I'll hold my nose and cover my eyes and whisper to the guy at the window who is taking my bet: I'll take the Lions with the points.
Seattle - 2.5 at St. Louis (44.5): This game ought to indicate if there will be a serious contest for the NFC West division championship; last year Seattle ran off and hid from the rest of the division. If St. Louis loses this home game to a less-than-full-strength Seattle team, the odds are pretty good that Seattle will coast to a playoff spot. The Seahawks had the week off; the last time we saw them, the Seahawks had just finished receiving a colossal beat-down from the Bears. I think this game hinges on whether or not the Seahawks have found a way to run the football this week without Shaun Alexander in uniform. The Rams can be run on and have a porous pass defense (they yield 214 yards per game) but if Seattle can't run the ball, that will allow the Rams to compensate for its poor pass defense. Meanwhile, Seattle gives up even more yards through the air than the Rams do. I see lots of points on the board here so I'll take this game OVER. I'll also take the Seahawks to win and cover. No parlay.
Giants at Atlanta - 3 (41.5): Don't peek now; which team in the NFC has the second best defense behind the Bears? That would be the Atlanta Falcons, folks. The Giants' defense came to life last week against the Redskins - or did the Redskins' offensive line just stink out the joint? Atlanta gives up the fewest yards per game rushing in the NFL and even though I really do like Eli Manning as a QB, I don't like it when one team can turn the other team into a one-dimensional attack. I'll take the Falcons here and lay the points.
Philly - 2.5 at New Orleans (46): The Eagles will score; they average 31 points a game. The Philly defense gives up points too; only Houston and Green Bay were shut down effectively. I like this game OVER. And I like the Eagles to win and cover because I think Donovan McNabb is on a roll. I won't parlay those bets because there is a chance for a team letdown and a McNabb letdown after the T.O. "homecoming game" last week. And just in case you hadn't noticed, this will be a "homecoming game" for Eagles' WR, Donte Stallworth who left New Orleans with very little fanfare during the exhibition season.
Carolina at Baltimore - 3.5 (34): I don't know if this is the best game of the week or not, but it ought to be a good one. If you like defense and field position football, this is the game for you. If you want offensive fireworks, you'll have to look elsewhere. In low scoring games I usually want the underdog with the points and the dog is very attractive here since the line is more than a field goal. I'll take the Panthers with the points.
Miami at Jets - 3 (36): This isn't the worst game of the week, but this one deserves 4 Skunks on the Stink-o-rama Scale. I don't think much of either team here. The Jets have two wins over Tennessee and Buffalo; they've shown they can beat bad teams. Miami is a bad team too. But the Jets just can't stop the run; they give up 148 yards a game so Miami may be able to move the ball without having to lean on their less than fearsome passing game. Once again, it should be a low scoring game and I'll take the underdog Dolphins with the points.
San Diego - 10.5 at SF (42.5): This game almost had a skunk hung on it but there are two even bigger mismatches to follow so it dodged the bullet. In no way would I try to argue that SF is the better team here; they are not. And when the Chargers met two other bad teams earlier this year (Tennessee and Oakland) the combined score in those games was 67-7. Nevertheless, I think that "Martyball" will take over here and keep this inside the line. I'll take the 49ers with the points. If you like the Chargers here, shop the line; you can find it at 9.5 in one place.
KC at Pittsburgh - 7 (36.5): Don't look now, but the Chiefs have the #4 defense in all of the NFL; Pittsburgh's defense is #14. KC's offense is also ranked above Pittsburgh's offense. I can't understand why the Steelers are a full TD favorite here; they enjoy a solid home field advantage; but a full TD? I want the Chiefs with the points here. I also will put a mythical $50 on the Chiefs on the money line at +300.
Oakland at Denver - 15 (36): Here is your 2 Skunk game for the week on the Smell-o-vision. Oakland lost last week to SF in what folks there called the "Battle of the Bay". They were close; they only missed by one letter; it was the "Battle of the Bad". Oakland is last in the NFL in offensive output at 225 yards per game. To make that worse, they are a full 36 yards per game worse than the team ranked 31st in offensive output. Denver hasn't been an offensive juggernaut this year either but the Broncos defense has held the last three opponents to 16 points. That's a total of 16 points not an average of 16 points. Maybe there will be a Jerry Porter sighting this week? So far this year, Jerry Porter is the leader in the clubhouse for the "Judge Crater Award"; no one has seen him in a really long time. You would not be surprised to hear that Randy Moss leads the team in pass receiving but you might be surprised to know that he leads the team with only 12 receptions for 136 yards; his longest gain for the year is 22 yards. I think Denver's offense awakens here against a porous Raiders' defense and I think Mike Shannahan will not call off the dogs. In addition, Denver's defense shuts down the mediocre Oakland offense and holds it under its already meager average. I want Denver and I'll even lay all of these points.
Chicago - 10 at Arizona (39): This is the 1 Skunk game on the Stench Meter for the weekend; the outcome should not be in doubt for very long. The Vikings stayed within 3 points of the Bears; other than that the average score has been Chicago 34 Opponent 5. You might say that the Bears overwhelmed those opponents because none of them are any good - - except for the fact that Seattle is in that grouping. And after all, the Cards don't bring much of a "fearsome factor" with them this week. Matt Leinart will start his second game on Monday night; the Cards' anemic running game won't give him any diversionary action and so it will be him against the best defense in the league. I'll take the Bears to win and cover on the road here.
Good luck.
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