Last weekend was not a good one for Mythical Picks - of the NFL variety. Believe me; that really paints last week's picks in the best possible light.
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Did I really take the Chiefs with seven against the Steelers and then also put $50 mythical dollars on the Chiefs on the money line? Yes I did.
Did I take SF with 10.5 points against the Chargers? Yes I did.
Did I take the Redskins and lay 10.5 points against the Titans? Yes I did.
With those results for the most recent week staring you in the face, I doubt that anyone would be tempted to use anything here as the basis for selecting a side in any wager of any kind. But just in case anyone thinks that's a good idea, let me say you'd have to be pretty stupid to do that. How stupid? Well, it would probably take you a month and a half to master the training to qualify as a proofreader in an M&MŪ factory.
The Games:
Normally, I pick five bad games for the week and rank them with the number of skunks they merit on a scale of 1-5. This week there are three truly bad games and so I'll distribute the 15 skunks that normally go to five games amongst the three on this week's card.
San Diego - 4.5 at KC (41): The Chiefs couldn't score on Pittsburgh's very good defense last week. The Chargers' defense is at least as good as the Steelers' defense and probably better. The Chiefs couldn't keep Pittsburgh's good but not great offense from putting 45 points on the board last week. The Chargers offense is better than the Steelers' offense. One reason the spread here is this low is that the Chiefs play significantly better at home than they do on the road; having said that, they have already lost at home this year. Another reason is that the Chargers schedule to date has been as soft as silk; Oakland, Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and SF have a combined record of 9-19. Whatever. I like San Diego to win and cover here. If you like the Chiefs, shop this line because it is at 5.5 in several places.
Jax - 9 at Houston (40.5): The Jags pounded the Jets two weeks ago; then they had a bye week; now they get the Texans. What's next, the DC Divas who are the reigning champions of the National Women's Football Association? The Jags have lost two important defensive starters for the year, but that shouldn't matter against the Texans. The Texans' defense is the worst in the league by a wide statistical margin; they gave up 354 yards to the Cowboys last week; that is much less than their average. Meanwhile, the Texans' offense ranks 30th in the league. Assuming that Jax hasn't spent the last two weeks looking completely through this game and forward to their trip to Philly next week, they should roll here. As for the Texans playing at home and having a home field advantage, just remember that they've lost 11 of their last 15 home games. I'll take Jax to win and cover.
New England - 4.5 at Buffalo (37): The Bills lost to the Lions last week. Granted, that game was in Detroit, but they lost to the Lions. New England had last week off and so they did not lose to the Lions. I usually like to take the points in a game that I think will be low scoring, but I just can't take the Bills here - even at home. I might worry about the Pats taking this game lightly, but the Pats had to rally from behind to beat the Bills in Foxboro on opening day. I'll take the Pats to win and cover.
Pittsburgh - 2.5 at Atlanta (37): This is the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde game of the week. Who knows which version of either team will show up? The Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in passing offense; the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in rushing offense. Michael Vick has only thrown 3 INTs; Michael Vick has only thrown 3 TDs. Michael Vick was sacked seven times last week and he fumbled the ball 4 times; it's no great mystery that the Steelers do know how to put pressure on a QB. Pittsburgh has smashed weak defensive teams and lost to strong defensive teams. Atlanta is somewhere in the middle here. A loss for the Falcons here would give then two home losses for the year and that's not a good way to make the playoffs. I've flipped my coin here and it says to take the game OVER.
Green Bay at Miami - 5.5 (40): Of the 15 skunks that are available for this week, I'll give this 5 Skunks of Funk. Both teams are awful. The most fortunate people who happen to be in the areas where this game will be televised are those who have mastered the Rip Van Winkle sleep pattern. You don't really want to see this game. The Dolphins offense might be proud to hear that I would call them anemic; I'm sure they've been called much worse than that. This week they get the 31st ranked defense in the NFL on the other side of the ball. If they can't generate offense here, then they are much worse than anemic. Meanwhile the Packers were on their bye week last week and have had two weeks to put in a defensive game plan to stifle Joey Harrington. That's not as difficult as advancing the state of understanding in String Theory. If you think Dennis Green lost it in his press conference after the Cards gagged their game away against the Bears, tune in to Nick Saban's press conference if the Dolphins lose here by two TDs. That won't happen, but I will take the Packers with the points here.
Philly - 4.5 at Tampa Bay (43): The Bucs showed signs of life in the last two games but they seem to have thrown in the towel by trading away Booger McFarland for a draft pick next year. I'll take the Eagles to win and cover here.
Detroit at Jets - 3.5 (42.5): This game is not nearly as bad as the other two games that will get Skunks this week, but these teams are bad enough that they cannot play one another and totally escape skunk notoriety. I'll award this game 1 Skunk of Stench. The Jets have beaten Tennessee, Buffalo and Miami and two of those games were road games for the Jets. Detroit is in that category of teams and Detroit is not a good road team. Only because I said I'd make a pick in every game will I make one here; I'll take the Jets at home to win and cover.
Carolina at Cincy - 3.5 (44.5): Panthers versus Bengals, this is a catfight between two big cats that are both pretty good teams. Other than the Cowboys/Giants game, this is the best game of the weekend. The Bengals' offense has struggled in the last two games against the Pats and the Bucs; Carson Palmer has only one TD pass over the course of both of these games. Those were good defenses the Bengals faced and so is the Panthers' defense. I think the Panthers can win this game outright and so I'll take the Panthers with the points here. I'm tempted by Carolina on the money line here, but the odds aren't worth it at +140. Now if it were to go up to +160
Denver - 4.5 at Cleveland (31.5): Useless fact #12,359: The last winning season for the Cleveland Browns was 1994. Unless the Broncos' defense just phones in the game, they should hold the Browns under 17 points. Now, what will the Broncos' offense do here? Jake Plummer is about to be indicted for impersonating a QB and a 220 yard output against the Brownies would be damning circumstantial evidence for the prosecution in his trial. Jake the Snake could be morphing into Jake the Fake. And if he really stinks on Sunday, the Broncos may decide to dump Jake in the Lake. There is a real potential for Denver to look past this game with Indy coming to visit them next week and so I'll take the Browns with the points in what I think will be a low scoring game. The Broncos are now a team that will only go as far as their defense will take them. John Elway is wondering what happened to his Broncos.
Washington at Indy - 8.5 (49): Gallows humor around DC is that when it became known that starting CB, Carlos Rogers could not play this weekend due to a broken thumb, the spread dropped immediately to 2 points. If the Skins have to cover Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne with Mike Rumph and Troy Vincent, that will not work for very long because neither of the Redskins safeties have the cover skills to help out very much. The Redskins' offense has been disappointing this year and the Redskins' defense has been equally disappointing. If you look at the Redskins' schedule from here on out, there are no "gimmes"; they've already had their "gimme games" and they blew the one against Tennessee at home. Indy had the week off and should get starting safety, Bob Sanders, and kicker Adam Vinatieri, back in the lineup. The Colts' problem is that they have the worst run defense in the NFL and the only way the Redskins offense can be effective is to have Clinton Portis run and run and run some more. I think Indy will romp here so I'll take them and lay the points.
Minnesota at Seattle - 7 (41): With Shaun Alexander still out, the Seahawks offense has lost an important dimension and that makes it easier to cover their passing game. I don't think the Vikes can win here, but I do think this line is fat. I'll take the Vikes with the points.
Arizona - 3 at Oakland (40): My mother always tried to teach me not to say anything if I had nothing nice to say. Obviously, that lesson never took hold. This game gets 10 Skunks of Stink. Both teams are monumentally bad. One question about the Cards is how they will react to their epic come from ahead loss to the Bears on Monday night. Remember Dennis Green screaming that the Bears were exactly who the Cards thought they were? Here's what he didn't say: The Cards are exactly whom football fans all over the US thought they were - - pathetic losers. Another question is whether or not any of this will matter against a Raiders' team that is the essence of putrescence. How bad is this game? Well, FOX will experiment with Tony Siragusa in the booth as the color commentator for the game. Even if he is worse than he is as an annoying sideline presence, it won't matter because the entire TV audience for this game ought to fit in one of those "little school buses". The Raiders did cover last Sunday night against the Broncos; that was the first time this year they did that. Was that the start of a trend or merely an aberration? I have flipped my trusty coin here and it says to take the Cards and lay the points. Obviously, my coin has no concept of the angst it causes me to take the Cardinals on the road and to lay points to any professional football team including the DC Divas, the reigning champions of the National Women's Football Association.
Giants at Dallas - 3 (45): This is the best game of the week. If the Giants win here, that would give them one win over each of their NFC East rivals and that could be huge in terms of tiebreakers come December. The Cowboys and Giants have split six games since Bill Parcells took over in Dallas so there's no trend working there. The last three games have been decided by a total of 14 points so this line doesn't look particularly fat or lean. The Cowboys have the best run defense in the NFL at the moment and the Giants do their best when Tiki Barber is the hub of the offense. The Cowboys passing attack demands time for Drew Bledsoe to set up and make his reads and the Giants defense seems to be coming together so as to make that an uncomfortable situation for Bledsoe. I like the Giants here with the points.
Good luck.
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