Last week was profitable for Mythical Picks on the collegiate scene. There were seven Ponderosa Spread games and the favorite was 4-3 against the spread for the week. That brings the total for the season to 25-22-1 for Ponderosa Spread favorites. Had you backed all 48 of them, you'd show a mythical profit of $70 after seven weeks.
On the specific games I picked, I went 4-1, which would yield a mythical profit of $290 for the week. That brings my season total to 18-11-1 and an overall mythical profit of $590.
Would that things had gone as well over on the NFL side of the Mythical Picks ledger - - but that's an elegy for the other set of Mythical Picks for this week. Stay tuned…
Of course, no one would even think of using any information or commentary here as the basis for making a real wager of any kind. You'd have to be really dumb to do that - dumb enough to think that Cheerios® are actually donut seeds.
General Comments:
Take yourself back in time to the second week of August and imagine that you were asked to name the two ACC teams who would already have six wins on the books - thereby becoming bowl eligible on October 15. If you really think you would have answered that question 8 weeks ago with Clemson and Wake Forest then my question to you is how come you aren't in Vegas living large on your winnings? That's right; those two teams are the ACC "bowl eligibles" now.
Wake Forest is the real shocker here. The last time Wake Forest won the ACC, Richard Nixon was in his first term and Monday Night Football hadn't been invented yet. They've accomplished all this despite having their starting QB and starting running back go down to injuries early this year. They've done all this with a redshirt freshman at QB and a variety of folks at running back. The defense gives up yardage but also creates turnovers so they really do "bend but don't break". They'll go to a bowl game this year even though they are still a real long shot to win even their Division of the ACC. Wake still has the meat of their schedule - BC, Florida State and Va Tech - in front of them. But it has been a good ride for them so far.
Speaking of good rides that are real shockers, Rutgers is 6-0 and they are ranked in the BCS poll. Unless you were a beard for Rutgers' coach Greg Schiano getting down on that prop bet in Vegas, you did not know that Rutgers would be this good. A loyal reader has been asking why I haven't been writing about Rutgers all season long; the reason is I was waiting for them to do what Rutgers is famous for doing in football - self destructing. It sure doesn't look as if that's gonna happen this year and the State University of New Jersey will be headed to a bowl game. This week, they face their biggest test so far.
Rutgers' opponents to date have not exactly been world-beaters. Their defense has spectacular statistics; they've held opposing offenses to less than 200 yards 5 times this year. Illinois, UNC, Ohio, Howard and a Navy team that lost its starting QB early in the game is not a schedule to strike fear in anyone's heart; Rutgers also beat South Florida - a better than average team - to fill out their record. This week, Rutgers gets a real test from Pitt who is 6-1 going into the game. Oh, and if you had that as a lock back in August, you were Dave Wannstedt's beard out there in Vegas… Like Rutgers, Pitt's schedule has been mighty comfy so far this year; Michigan State was far and away the best team Pitt faced and Michigan State won that game by 2 TDs.
The downside for Rutgers' fans from all this is that Larry Coker is almost assuredly out at Miami. People have talked about bringing Butch Davis back there but as I recall Davis' departure from Miami was not completely amicable and not everyone acted in a fully "above-board" manner. So, Miami may go looking and two candidates ought to be Mark Richt (Georgia) and - - Greg Schiano (Rutgers).
Lots of people have been pointing to the Louisville/West Virginia game on 2 November as the "Big East Championship Game". And it may be. But Rutgers still has Louisville and West Virginia on the schedule so they might play a part in determining who the champion his here and don't forget Pitt at 6-1 now but with Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia all coming up. There are way too many possible scenarios here to try to list them, but maybe that game between Louisville and West Virginia (2 Nov) is only the appetizer for the main course of the Big East schedule.
The unbeaten teams in the Big East can't all finish unbeaten; neither can Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten. USC hasn't been blowing opponents away and still has to close the season with Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA in four consecutive weeks; they're not a mortal lock to wind up undefeated. The games late in this college football season should be really interesting. Teams with only one loss may be scrambling for seeding in the BCS sweepstakes.
Last year about this time, Fresno State was the up and coming team that could play with anybody. They took on USC in November 2005 and lost 50-42. Since then, the Bulldogs have collapsed; they've lost 8 of their 9 games since then and last week went to Hawaii - not exactly USC - and got waxed 68-37. Hawaii had the ball 13 times and scored 10 TDs. Who was out there playing defense for Fresno State, the Teletubbies? This week, Fresno State pays a visit to LSU in Baton Rouge; that could be ugly.
The first BCS rankings came out. Of course, there was a lot of gnashing of teeth and venting of spleen when it hit the streets. Forget most of it because there are way too many games yet to be played to care about this - - except for one thing that I really don't understand. Arkansas went to Auburn and beat Auburn by 17 points. Auburn is ranked ten steps higher in the BCS ranking than Arkansas. That seems just a tad strange to me.
Ponderosa Spread Games:
There are six Ponderosa Spread Games this week. All the favorites are at home. If you are surprised to see Washington on the list as a Ponderosa underdog given their record to date, you have to realize that their starting QB is not playing. The other underdogs here aren't all that surprising; in fact, it's a bit of a surprise when Temple is NOT on the list as a Ponderosa Spread underdog.
-
Temple at Northern Illinois - 33.5
(Might Garrett Wolfe set an NCAA record for most yards rushing in a game this week? He was held to only 25 yards rushing last week against Western Michigan.)
Fresno State at LSU - 32.5
Tulane at Auburn - 31.5
Indiana at Ohio State - 30.5
UNLV at BYU - 28.5
Washington at Cal - 24
I'm tempted by the Stanford/Arizona State game because the Stanford QB is out for the year and Stanford was pathetic with him on the field. But Arizona State is so unreliable that I can't pick them and lay 23 points. And I just won't take Stanford so…
I'm also tempted to take Clemson against Georgia Tech because Clemson is scoring points by the bushel-basketful. The problem is that Georgia Tech's defense is much better than anything Clemson has seen so far this year; Tech is much better than Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech and Temple! So, I'll pass on that one too.
Rutgers at Pitt - 6.5 (45): Rutgers is ranked; Pitt is not. Pitt is however in among the schools who "also received votes". Pitt throws the ball a lot and throws it well; they average just over 250 yards passing per game; QB Tyler Palko has competed 70% of his passes this year. No one that Rutgers has played so far does that. I'll make this a venue call and take Pitt to win and cover here.
Texas - 4.5 at Nebraska (50): When Nebraska had a shot at one of the "big boys" earlier this year at USC, they didn't get it done. I don't think they'll get it done here either. Texas scores over 40 points per game on average. Yes, the Nebraska defense is good enough to hold them under that number, but I don't see how Nebraska's offense will score all that much on Texas. I like Texas to win and cover here.
Wisconsin - 7 at Purdue (55.5): This will be Purdue's first home game in a month; their defense isn't any good, but Purdue averages over 470 yards a game on offense. That's a lot. I know Wisconsin has a good defense, but I still like a home team that can move the ball like that when I get a full TD. I'll take Purdue with the points. If you like Wisconsin, shop this line; you can find it at 6 in one place and at 6.5 in several others.
Alabama at Tennessee - 10.5 (43): This line is a tribute to the Alabama defense. Tennessee has been over 30 in all but one game this year and the total line is only 43. I think that Tennessee - a team that still has a chance to be in the BCS sweepstakes - will score a bit on Alabama and that the Tennessee defense will hold Alabama in check. I'll take Tennessee at home and lay the points.
Texas Tech - 1.5 at Iowa State (53): I'm not a huge Texas Tech fan; they are a very inconsistent team. Nevertheless, I don't think Iowa State is any good at all this year. I know that Texas Tech is a much better team at home than on the road and that it might be awfully chilly in Ames this weekend, but I think they can cover this number. I like Texas Tech to win and cover here.
Hawaii - 20.5 at New Mexico State (73.5): The NM State QB, Chase Holbrook, is leading the nation in passing at 403 yards per game. Last week against Boise State, Holbrook threw the ball 65 times. The Hawaii QB, Colt Brennan, is second in the nation in passing at 379 yards per game. He averages 41 passes per game. Neither defense is anything special. You'd think that NM State's defense would be competent against the pass since they practice against the NM State offense all the time. But they are awful against the pass; they give up over 260 yards per game and that's against teams who do not have an aerial circus like Hawaii. You can say the same about Hawaii's defense; they give up just under 250 yards per game passing. The ball is going up and down the field in this game at an alarming rate. Last week NM State lost to Boise State 40-28; last week Hawaii beat Fresno State 68-37. Absent a blizzard or gale force winds, this game will be a scoring fest. I'll take this game OVER. I wonder if there are prop odds somewhere on this game going OVER 90 points; it just might do that. A final score of 55-42 is not out of the question.
Good luck.
= Archives = Pros = Scores = Contact =