Last weekend was a good one for Mythical Picks of the NFL variety. I went 8-5 for the weekend, which would generate a mythical profit of $250 for the weekend. That brings the totals for the year to 61-50-2 and a Mythical Profit of $770.
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It was good to have the Pittsburgh/Atlanta game OVER 37 when the halftime score was 24-21. In fact, it was interesting to note that both teams went OVER the total with their individual scores. I'm sure that's happened before but I don't remember seeing it.
It was good to have Green Bay, the Giants and Minnesota with points and have all of them win outright.
It was horrid to have Jax laying 9 points to Houston and to see the Jags lose the game outright by 18 points.
Once again this week, there aren't five games bad enough to warrant a measure on the Skunk Stench Scale. So, I'll take the 15 Skunks that are normally awarded and apportion them out to the three bad games this weekend.
Despite this admirable week and the positive results for the season thus far, no one should even think of using any of the information here as the basis for backing a side in a wager or for deciding to make a wager in the first place. Doing that would make you dumb enough to go to the trouble to scale a chain link fence just to see what was on the other side of the fence.
Houston at Tennessee - 3 (41.5): Both of these teams are coming off a win; by Sunday evening, one of them will be on a two-game winning streak; what were the odds of that happening any time this year? Even in light of that unusual circumstance, both of these teams stink. This game warrants 5 Skunks on the Malodorous Meter. Both coaches have the teams playing hard; the problem is that neither team has all that much talent. I cannot take Houston on the road, but I can't really bring myself to take Tennessee and lay points to another NFL team. I have my trusty coin out here and I've flipped it and it says take the game OVER.
Jax at Philly - 7 (42.5): What happened to the Jags defense? Who will play QB for the Jags this week? What new plot twist will the Eagles concoct this week to lose the game or give Jax a back-door cover? Or will the Eagles finally figure out how to put an opponent away for good? There are too many variables here to pick a side with a full TD as the spread, so I'll take the game OVER.
Atlanta at Cincy - 5 (44): This line varies from 3.5 to 5; so shop the line if you want to play this game. Both of these teams are yo-yos - - up one week and down the next. Which kind of team will Cincy dress this week? Which Falcons' squad hopped on the charter flight to CVG? Will the Falcons be passing this week or running the ball this week? Cincy had to use two subs in the OL last week and still ran for over 100 yards on the Panthers' defense and only gave up two sacks. Yet, the Bengals' scoring problems continue; they've only scored 43 points in their last 3 games. The Cincy defense gives up 127 yards per game on the ground; Atlanta can and will run the football. Give me the Falcons with the points here.
Tampa at Giants - 9.5 (41): It's a shame that the NFL didn't decide to play regular season games abroad a couple of years ago. Put this game in Seville, Spain and you could call this game "The Barbers in Seville". Or not… Tampa won two weeks ago thanks to a very generous call from the referee for roughing the passer; they won last week on a 62-yard field goal with no time left on the clock; that's not gonna happen this week. But that line is fat, fat, fat. So, I'll take the Bucs with the points here even though I would not touch them on the money line.
SF at Chicago - 16.5 (41.5): Don't agonize here about the winner; just worry about the spread; that's a whole lotta points even for the Bears in Soldier Field. With Mike Brown out for the year, the Bears' defense has to make up for a significant loss. So, how many points can SF score against the Bears this weekend. I think it's still less than 17 meaning the Bears probably need 30 to cover. SF gives up about 32 a game but the Bears can't be psyched up for this game having had two weeks to prepare and to watch the mediocrity of the Niners. The line is fat; give me SF with the points here.
Arizona at Green Bay - 3.5 (44): This game gets 9 Skunks on the Noxious Nose Indicator. Here's a stat I ran across that stunned me. The last time the Cardinals won a game in the state of Wisconsin was when they were the Chicago Cardinals back in 1949. I have not verified that because absent NFL Media Guides it is far too much work to be worth it. Green Bay ranks last in the NFC in defense mainly because they have the worst pass defense in the conference. Arizona can throw the ball a lot better than it can run the ball. Meanwhile a veteran QB like Brett Favre could pick Arizona's middling defense apart. I guess this game will be a high scoring one - barring a blizzard or gale force winds - so I'll take the game OVER. Do not bet on this game with real money.
Seattle at KC - 6 (38.5): Seattle isn't merely injured; it's maimed. Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris are poor imitations of Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. It's almost like asking the Smothers Brothers to stand in for the Blues Brothers. The Chiefs play much better at home than they do on the road and this game is at Arrowhead. Before the season started, I had this game in the win column for the Seahawks; but I didn't have Seneca Wallace starting his first NFL game here. I'll take the Chiefs to win and cover.
Baltimore at New Orleans - 3 (37.5): These two teams bring a combined record of 9-3 into the game so this should be a good one. Here's a trend for you. A field goal has been the difference in the last three Saints games. If that trend continues, the best the Saints can do here is a push. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens win outright and it should be a low scoring game, so I'll take the Ravens with the points here.
St. Louis at San Diego - 9 (45): The Chargers spit the bit in KC last week and now Shawne Merriman is appealing a 4 game suspension for steroid use. Damn, those dreaded distractions… Meanwhile, the Rams' 4-2 record might not be as good as it looks since three of those wins came over Arizona, Detroit and Green Bay in successive weeks. And the Rams aren't nearly as good on the road and outdoors as they are in their home dome. The Rams rank 22nd in the NFL in rushing offense; San Diego ranks 5th in rushing defense. That tells me the Rams will become one-dimensional and that's not good against a really good defense. I'll take the Chargers at home to win and cover here.
Pittsburgh - 8.5 at Oakland (39): The "Blitz-burgh" defense may not have been able to get to Michael Vick last week, but it will pour through the Raiders' OL and will catch whomever the Raiders have back there at QB. I don't like Charlie Batch much as a QB but I wouldn't play Ben Roethlisberger this week if I were the Steelers' decision maker; Denver is up next and you want him ready and focused to play that game. Pittsburgh is one of only two road favorites this week and they will cover this number. I'll take the Steelers here and lay the points.
Jets at Cleveland - 2.5 (38): This game may not be as fetid as the other two games that earned Skunks for the week, but these teams are bad enough that they cannot get by without receiving 1 Skunk on the Funkometer. The Jets are 4-3 with wins over Tennessee, Buffalo, Miami and Detroit; those are bad teams they beat. Cleveland at 1-5 is a bad team too. So, perhaps the wrong team is favored here? I'll take the Jets with the points; and yes, I'm waving a scented hankie around just to freshen the air in here.
Indy at Denver - 2.5 (38): If you need me to tell you that this is the best game of the weekend, you shouldn't even be reading an essay related to wagering on football games. If you like the over/under line in this game, shop around; you can find it as high as 39 and as low as 37. According to this line, the really good defense in Denver is going to stop the really good offense from Indy. However, recall that the last two times Indy played Denver in the playoffs, the Colts put 41 and 49 points on the board. That won't happen here; the Broncos won't hold the Colts to single digits either. There was a big snowstorm in the Colorado Rockies a couple of days ago but that should only be a mile inconvenience to fans who have to get to the game via bicycle. I think Denver will run on the Colts the way the Redskins should have been able to run on the Colts last weekend. I'll take the Broncos at home to win and cover here.
Dallas at Carolina - 5 (41): Well, at least last week showed that the Panthers actually can lose a game with Steve Smith in the lineup. It also showed me that Tony Romo is likely to struggle against a very good defense such as the one the Panthers will put on the field. Unless the Panthers' defense takes this game lightly, they should make life miserable for Tony Romo and the Cowboys' offensive unit. I'll take the Panthers to win and cover here.
(Monday Nite) New England - 2.5 at Minnesota (38): Without a lot of fanfare, the Vikings have assembled the second ranked defense in the NFC; in six games so far this year, no one has scored more than 19 points in a; game on that defense. Of course, they haven't faced any offensive juggernauts yet particularly since they caught the Seahawks minus Shaun Alexander and with Matt Hasselbeck exiting the game early on. The Vikes can win ten games just by beating the weak teams on the schedule ahead of them; for example, their four opponents in November will be SF, Green Bay, Miami, Arizona. But this week they have the Pats on their home turf. They are only one of two home dogs this weekend and this is the best team they've faced. But the Pats might just be looking ahead to next weekend when the Colts are due to visit them in Foxboro. I'll take the Vikings with the points here and look forward to watching a really good game on MNF.
Good luck.
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