Last weekend was not so hot for the NCAA version of Mythical Picks. In the Ponderosa Spread Games, the favorites were 2-4 against the spread bringing the season record for such games to 27-26-1 in terms of covering. That means you would be in the hole if you played the favorites in every game or if you played the underdogs in every game. How convenient for the sportsbooks…
In my Games of Interest, I was also 2-4 for the weekend - is there an echo in here? That means there was a mythical deficit of $240 for the week. The season totals are now 20-15-1, which shows a mythical profit of $350.
-
Did I really take Purdue with only 7 points against Wisconsin? Yes I did.
Did I really take Pitt and lay 6.5 to Rutgers? Yes I did - and I have been chastised and scoffed upon by one particular reader who is a Rutgers alum.
General Comments:
The presidents of the University of Georgia and the University of Florida went to the SEC and asked the conference to ask ESPN and CBS not to refer to this week's game as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" because they thought this reflected poorly on the college experience and intimated that the schools allowed student drinking. Hello, in case this is news to those goofs, college kids drink booze. In any event, here's how Jim Armstrong handled the matter in the Denver Post:
-
"Georgia and Florida officials have pleaded with media types not to refer to Saturday's game in Jacksonville, Fla., as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." All right, all right, I won't refer to "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." Unless I just did. Twice. ..."
Before the season started, the folks at Baylor were talking "bowl eligible". The team started 1-3 with a loss to Army and things did not look good, but maybe there's some hope for Baylor. They are now 4-4; their passing game has improved a lot and they need to find two wins among four games against Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St and Oklahoma. They are 5-point underdogs this week against Texas A&M and they'll likely be a small underdog next week against Texas Tech and the week after against Oklahoma State. It's not a shoo-in for them to get 6 wins, but they just might - - and Baylor hasn't been to a bowl game since 1994. Remember, Baylor scored 31 against Texas even though they were blown out in that game so they do have the ability to light up the scoreboard.
When the discussions about who is the best and the second-best team in the country were held last week, one school that was rarely mentioned was Clemson. But they were 7-1 and their loss was back around Labor Day to BC in overtime. They visited Virginia Tech last night; Clemson was favored slightly; and they got clocked. They finish with 3 straight home games against Maryland, NC State and South Carolina. The last game is a rivalry game and always can go either way, but Clemson ought to be looking at 10-2 as their record going into the bowl season. No way are they the second best team in the country, but they are good.
LSU has also lost 2 games this year. Both of them have been on the road; they still have to travel to Tennessee next week and to Arkansas on Thanksgiving weekend. But LSU is amazingly strong at home. In their 6 wins at home this year, they've outscored their opponents 274-36; only Fresno State has held them under 40 points in Baton Rouge. Too bad their toughest opponents are road games this year…
Tulsa is 6-1 this year; they have two competitive games in the next two weeks and then three apparent "walk-overs" against Rice, SMU and Tulane. They could wind up 11-1 and people might complain that they are not receiving proper consideration by the BCS folks. Before you buy into that, go check their schedule; their toughest games have been BYU (they lost) and Navy (they won by a point in overtime). This is why strength of schedule has to be a factor in rankings and why computer rankings have to be part of the BCS equation.
If I've counted correctly, there are seven teams in Division 1-A that are still unbeaten and you'll hear lots about them, but here in Curmudgeon Central, I like to focus on another part of the standings. I believe there are only four Division 1-A schools that have not yet won a game this year. In alphabetical order, they are Duke, Florida International, Stanford and Temple. They share a common problem; they don't score very much because they don't move the ball all that much. There are 119 Division 1-A teams; the most potent offense of these four winless schools belongs to Duke; it ranks 113th. Even teams with great defenses - and none of these schools have anything resembling a great defense - can't win without a little help from the offense. Duke, Stanford and Temple will be significant underdogs in their remaining games; they could all be 0-12. Florida International is really a bad team but they have games against La-Monroe, La-Lafayette, Florida Atlantic and Troy still ahead of them. Let's just say that winning a game against one of those four opponents would not be an upset of gargantuan proportion.
Utah State is another miserable team but they have actually won a game this year. They rank 116th in offense in Division 1-A and 113th in defense; that's pretty bad but if you check their schedule, you will see that it might get even worse. This poor defense, which gets no respite from its equally miserable offense, still has to play Hawaii (1st overall in offense), New Mexico State (3rd overall in offense), Boise State (16th overall in offense and a team in need of big wins to impress poll voters) and Nevada (38th overall in offense). The Aggies have been outscored 247 - 89 in 8 games this year. This could get very ugly…
Minnesota has to be one of the year's big disappointments. They are 3-5 at this point and they needed a blocked kick at the end of the game last week to hold on to a 10-9 lead for their victory over North Dakota State. That's a Division 1-AA school. Upcoming for Minnesota are Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State and Iowa. They won't lose all four of those games, but they won't sweep them either. They're probably looking at a 5-7 finish at best and staying home in the frigid environs of Minneapolis/St. Paul for the bowl season.
Five players at Ole Miss were suspended last week for violating team policies. One rumor has it that they actually tackled someone during a practice…
Tell the truth, how many of you thought that on the weekend before Halloween that Florida State would be last in the ACC. I sure didn't. It certainly appears as if Bobby Bowden's program at FSU is in eclipse at the moment - much as was the Penn State program a couple of years ago under JoePa. Last week, Florida State lost to BC; and from what I saw, there just weren't all that many outstanding athletes wearing FSU uniforms. That wasn't the case 5 years ago; it sure looked that way last weekend. About the only thing FSU did well was to play run defense.
The oddsmakers have shown their disdain for Northwestern in light of their performance last week. Recall that Northwestern led Michigan State 38-3 in the third quarter and lost the game 41-38. This week, Northwestern is on the short end of a Ponderosa Spread line; they're at Michigan and the oddsmakers give them 32.5 points. Why is that a big deal? Michigan doesn't even average 30 points per game at home this year. If you are a trend player, your pick in this game is really simple. I'm not a trend player.
All the nonsense about Charlie Weiss getting his knickers in a knot about dropping a notch in the BCS ranking after a win over UCLA is just that - - nonsense. Here's a data point that hard-hearted fans - i.e. wagerers - might want to point out to Coach Weiss. Stanford is a horrible football team; they're winless and have a shot at going 0-12 for the year. In their eight games to date, they've covered the spread exactly once; that was against Notre Dame. That fact alone should keep Notre Dame ranked below #10 in the country for the rest of the season. Deal with it, Golden Domers.
Finally, here's a note for my "Rutgers-alum reader" who relishes jerking my chain over my lack of perspicacity in picking Rutgers as a good team this year. Before the season started, Rutgers' Athletic Department reportedly spent some money mailing out post cards to promote a potential Heisman candidate on the team. No, I'm not talking about running back, Raymell Rice, who has over 1100 yards so far and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. No, the Athletic Department spent that money to hype the upcoming season for another running back, Brian Leonard, who is probably a very nice person and a good football player. However, his 206 yards rushing in 7 games is not likely to gather him any Heisman votes. So if the Rutgers Athletic Department didn't realize that Raymell Rice was going to be any good, why should I have divined that tidbit of wisdom?
Ponderosa Spread Games:
There are six Ponderosa Spread games this week. The favorite is at home in all of them. Note that Temple is not on the list this week as some school's "punching-bag du jour"; and yes, they are playing this week. Florida International and La-Monroe are both 36-point dogs this week and those two teams play each other very soon. What a special game that should be…
-
La-Monroe at Arkansas - 36
Florida International at Alabama - 36
Buffalo at Boston College - 35.5
Northwestern at Michigan - 32.5
Minnesota at Ohio State - 27
Idaho at Hawaii - 26
There are some bad games this weekend. I'm not talking about the mismatches above; I mean there are some games where neither team is any good. There is no reason to watch - and certainly not to wager on - Kentucky/Mississippi State or Vandy/Duke or MTSU/La-Lafayette or Army/Tulane. I wonder if the US Supreme Court would rule that making prisoners watch all four of these games in sequence while in their prison cells was "cruel and unusual punishment".
What are the best games of the weekend - whether or not there is an attractive betting angle on them? Clemson/Va Tech was pretty good last night. If that doesn't float your boat, check out Missouri/Oklahoma or Florida/Georgia or Tennessee/South Carolina or Bowling Green/Temple. OK that last one was there just to make sure you were still awake…
Oklahoma at Missouri - 1.5 (47): With Adrian Peterson out, the Oklahoma offense can be stopped. Since Missouri's pass defenders are better than average, they may be able to load up on the run against whatever combination of backs and formations the Sooners offer up. The problem here is that twice a year, Missouri just tanks a game and that hasn't happened to them yet. Have they turned over a new leaf at Mizzou or are they waiting for me to pick them one time? If it is the latter, here's their opportunity. Missouri needs this game to stay on top of the Northern Division of the Big 12 and I like them to win and cover here.
BYU - 7.5 at Air Force (55): BYU throws the ball a lot and with effectiveness; Air Force's pass defense is pretty bad. I like BYU here despite being on the road. I'll take BYU to win and cover.
Texas A&M - 5 at Baylor (53.5): I saw Texas A&M against Army and was mightily underwhelmed. I was unimpressed with A&M's team speed and Baylor will throw the ball; throw the ball again; and then, throw it some more. Give me Baylor at home with the points here because I think they could win the game outright.
Notre Dame - 13 at Navy (48): Actually, this game is at a neutral site but that really isn't a big deal. Navy will still have to try to run their triple option offense without their #1 QB and Notre Dame needs to win impressively or risk moving down in the BCS rankings the way they did last week when they won unimpressively. I'll take Notre Dame and lay the points.
(Sunday Nite) UConn at Rutgers - 19 (39.5): This is a "sandwich game" for Rutgers - a tasty morsel in between big games against Pitt and Louisville. UConn had dismissed/suspended a bunch of players over the past couple of weeks; this week another lineman was tossed for an off-the-field incident. It's not like UConn had the deepest squad in the country going into the season. UConn has beaten Rutgers three of the last four times they met and now Rutgers is on a roll and needs to prove it can win conference games when it matters. They'll show that here and atone for those three recent losses. I'll take Rutgers to win and cover at home.
Good luck.
= Archives = Pros = Scores = Contact =