Last weekend was not so good for the NFL version of Mythical Picks:
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I took Jax/Philly to go OVER 42.5; the final score was 13-6.
I took SF +10 at Chicago; it was 41-0 at the half; SF wasn't winning.
I had Carolina - 5 against Dallas; the Panthers folded like a beach chair.
No one should take any information here and use it as the basis for making any actual wagers involving any actual negotiable currency. Anyone who did that would be dumb enough to feel cheated if he went to a proctologist and didn't hear Moon River as the office background music.
General Comments:
This is the end of the NFL bye weeks. I don't know how one should mark that occasion so I'll just toss it out there for you to handle in your own way.
There's only one really bad game between two bad teams this week - aided in part by the fact that the Jets and Cardinals have the weekend off. So, I'll just designate one Stinkeroo Game of the Week this time and return to awarding Skunks to bad games when there are more bad games to receive the Skunks.
Clearly, the best game of the weekend will be the Colts at the Patriots. The AFC could have a "Rock/Scissors/Paper" thing at work here. The Broncos beat the Pats; the Colts beat the Broncos; now if the Pats were to beat the Colts…
Speaking of the Denver Broncos, they visit Pittsburgh this weekend in a game that is important to both teams for different reasons. Denver is even with San Diego atop the AFC West and the Chargers figure to win this weekend against Cleveland; Denver needs to keep pace. Pittsburgh is 2-5 and a loss here would begin the process of shoveling the dirt onto the casket that contains the remains of the Steelers' 2006 season.
KC at St. Louis will be an entertaining game because both teams can move the ball effectively and it is a rivalry game.
Dallas at Washington is as big a rivalry game - if not bigger - but these are two teams that redefine the word "inconsistent".
Game Selections:
KC at St. Louis - 2.5 (48): Both teams have much better than average running backs. But I like Marc Bulger and the Rams' passing game more than I do Damon Huard and the Chiefs' attack. I think the game boils down to which of the two defensive units plays better on Sunday. Just a hunch, but I'll take the Rams at home and lay the points.
Cincy at Baltimore - 3 (41): Was the Baltimore scoring outburst last weekend a sign of things to come from Brian Billick as head coach/offensive coordinator or was that the Saints coming down from the firmament and back to Planet Earth? I think it was more of the latter. A Ravens' win here would give them a two game lead in the division with a win-in-hand against the second-place Bengals. Cincy needs to avoid that and in order to avoid that they will have to stop Jamal Lewis. I see a low scoring game here and so I'll take the Bengals with the points.
Houston at Giants - 12.5 (43): On the assumption that the Giants are not ignoring the Texans entirely and looking ahead to next week's game in Chicago, they should take care of business here. The Giants are second in the NFC in offense and run the ball really well. Houston's defense is porous - particularly against the run. The Giants will win and cover here. If you like the Texans, shop the line; it's as high as 13.5 at one sportsbook.
Tennessee at Jax - 9.5 (37.5): This game is a mini-version of the Texans/Giants game above. Tennessee's defense is worse than Houston's and it gives up even more yards rushing per game at 162.1 yards per game. Jax has running backs who can move the ball. If this game were in Tennessee with these numbers, I'd probably take the Titans but at home think Jax can control this game and cover this number. I'll take Jax to win and cover.
Dallas - 3 at Washington (42.5): Don't bet on this game with real money even if it is on TV wherever you are watching on Sunday. Dallas is up one week and down the next; last week had to qualify as an "up week" against Carolina. The Redskins have been awful most of the time but they did score 36 points against a good Jax defense. Gregg Williams' defensive moves are normally very confusing for inexperienced QBs, but the Skins lost to Vince Young already this year. Oh, and it is a rivalry game with the Redskins coming off a bye week to prepare for it. I think the Skins will have some offensive wrinkles for this game that will allow them to score a bit; I also think that the Cowboys will get some big plays on a bad Redskins' secondary. So I'll take the game OVER and hope the score is 24-24 at halftime so I don't have to worry about both teams sucking wind in the second half.
Green Bay at Buffalo - 3.5 (40.5): May I present the Stinkeroo Game of the Week. Buffalo's anemic offense is due in large part to the fact that they don't run the ball all that well making JP Losman have to try to make amends for that. That's not a pretty picture. Green Bay's rush defense is probably the strongest part of the team so Losman will be called on to win this game for Buffalo. I'm not sure he can do that and so I'll be happy to take the Bills here with more than a field goal's worth of points.
New Orleans - 1 at Tampa (38.5): Before you get caught up in the hype about the emergence of Bruce Gradkowski as a rising star in the league, please note that the Tampa Bay offense ranks last in the NFC and last in the NFC in passing. The offense ranks 30th in all of the NFL and the passing offense ranks 27th overall. I'm not all that enthralled by the Saints' defense because they give up 122 yards per game on the ground. But I do think the Saints' mojo is greater than the Bucs' mojo at this moment, so I'll take the Saints and lay the point.
Atlanta - 5 at Detroit (47): Atlanta should run, run, run the ball steadily down the field. Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily, life is but a dream. Sorry about that. Without Shaun Rogers in the middle of the DL, I don't think the Lions can stop the Falcons' run game effectively. And while it is better to throw on the Falcons than to run on them, I don't think that Jon Kitna will be all that effective if he has to throw the ball much of the time because Atlanta is playing keep-away. I wish this number were lower, but it isn't. So, I'll take the Falcons and lay the points even with the Falcons on the road for a second straight week.
Miami at Chicago - 13.5 (37.5): My tendency in a low scoring game is to take the points even if it's only a field goal. Here, the spread is almost 2 TDs. And the Dolphins have had a bye week to work up a scheme for the game. Please recall that the 49ers had a bye week to prepare for their visit to Chicago last week and it was 41-0 at the half. At first blush, you'd say that the Bears took advantage of a less than wonderful offense and QB last week and that won't happen here. But on further review, Miami's offense is only 13 yards per game better than SF's and Joey Harrington isn't anything more than a less than wonderful QB. I think the Bears defense will stifle the Dolphins and the only thing that will prevent this from being a rout will be a Rex Grossman performance akin to the one he had against the Cardinals. I'll take the Bears and lay the points.
Minnesota - 5 at SF (43.5): I'll revert to form here. I see this game as a low scoring affair. The Vikings have only gone over 20 points twice this year, once against the woebegone Lions and once against the defensively challenged Seahawks. Yes, the Niners are very defensively challenged too, but I'm not sold on the Vikings as a road team nor by the Vikings as an outdoor team on grass. I'll take the Niners with the points here at home.
Cleveland at San Diego - 12 (42): Losing Shawne Merriman has to hurt the Chargers but the DL is good enough that the Browns won't run on them. That means that Cleveland will need to move the ball on the talents of Charlie Frye. He's not ready to do that against this kind of defense - at least not regularly. So, I'll take the Chargers to win and cover here. If you like Cleveland, you can find this line as high as 13 at one sportsbook.
Denver at Pittsburgh - 3 (37): Denver's defense is very good despite what Peyton Manning did to it in the second half last week. Pittsburgh is a much better team when it runs the ball a lot and only throws it about 20-25 times a game. Denver's offense scored on the Indy defense last week but let's not pretend that Jake Plummer has finally arrived as a QB; he hasn't. Once again, a low scoring game that entices me to take the points. I'll take the visiting Broncos with the points.
Indy at New England - 3 (48): I can make a case for just about any scenario you'd like to propose for this game short of Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy providing the halftime entertainment by putting on a stand-up comedy routine with a medley of karaoke tunes to cap it off. I think New England will run the ball often and effectively. I think Peyton Manning will be able to throw the ball often and effectively. I'll take the game OVER because that's what the little voices in my head are telling me to do. I usually don't listen to those little voices in my head ever since the "restraining order incident"…
Oakland at Seattle - 7.5 (37): A month ago, if I told you that one team would come into this game riding a two game winning streak, you would have concluded that the Seahawks were going to lose to Minnesota (as they did) two weeks ago. It would not have occurred to you that it would be the Raiders on a two game win streak and the Seahawks on a two game losing streak. Even with the implosion of the Seattle defense over the past month or so, I can't see the Raiders ringing up a big number here based on their offense. Andrew Walter was 5-14 for 51 yards net last week; the Raiders could probably suit up Ken Stabler and get that kind of output. However, I think the total is low and so I will take the game OVER.
Good luck.
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