Last weekend tilted slightly to the negative side for Mythical Picks. The Ponderosa Spread Favorites were 3-3 in their 6 games bringing the season total for these contests to 30-29-1. That maintains the situation where you would be a net loser if you had bet with or against these favorites as a system bet all season long. For my Games of Interest, I split 2-2 on Saturday and had Rutgers to win and cover on Sunday night. They didn't cover; so, I had a record of 2-3 for the weekend and a net mythical loss of $130. The season totals there are now 22-18-1 for a Mythical Profit of $220.
Interestingly, I've said all season long that I just didn't trust either Rutgers or Missouri because both teams have a long history of throwing clunkers into their seasons on an almost random basis. Last week, I took both Rutgers and Missouri. Neither covered; Missouri lost outright fairly handily. I really ought to take my own advice more often…
Naturally, no readers intelligent enough to have turned to this essay for its entertainment and wisdom would think of using any information herein as the basis for making a wager involving real money. That would belie their intelligence and demonstrate stupidity on their part. In fact, they'd be stupid enough to try to eat dinner with one chopstick and then wonder why they feel hungry.
General Comments:
As West Virginia and Louisville get ready to play tomorrow night (I'm writing this part on Wednesday because I won't be in Curmudgeon Central at the end of the week), there are lots of people whining/commenting on the weak schedules of these teams. As I've pointed out lots of times, a school cannot control the quality of its conference schedule so I tend to ignore that. Having said that, West Virginia's out of conference schedule - the part that they control entirely because it is done on a game-by-game contractual basis - is pretty pathetic. They've chosen to face Marshall, Eastern Washington and Maryland at home and travel to play East Carolina and Mississippi State. Big East Commish, Mike Tranghese wasn't about to take this kind of criticism of a Big East Team with his lips sealed and so he declared, "Anyone who wants to play West Virginia, dial the number. Michigan and USC ain't going to Morgantown. It's a tough place to get to. West Virginia isn't trying to dodge anybody."
Excuse me? Both Michigan and USC know how to find their way to South Bend - not always in the same season - and if you've been to South Bend, you realize that it doesn't have a huge airport with non-stop flights to just about everywhere either. When West Virginia had to go and add a 12th game this year, the best team they could add to the schedule was Eastern Washington. Just to put this in perspective, Eastern Washington's record this year is 2-7 at the moment against the likes of Central Washington, Sacramento State and Portland State. Maybe West Virginia isn't dodging anyone, but they aren't looking very hard for a top tier opponent outside the Big East either.
Since I mentioned the West Virginia/Louisville game this week as a game with "championship implications", let me observe that Duke football followers should look at that game as a beacon of hope. That should demonstrate to the Dukies that it is possible for "basketball schools" to be involved in football at a high level too.
Do you realize what a rarity last weekend was in college football? Think about it; Temple won a football game and USC lost a football game on the same weekend. I'm sure it's happened before, but it's been a while. In the last three-and-a-half seasons, USC has lost a total of three games by a combined margin of 8 points. Compare that to Temple who beat Bowling Green last weekend by 2 TDs. Going into that game, Temple had been outscored 351-71.
For those of you who believe in "revenge" when it comes to picking sides in a wager, consider that Temple had "double humiliation hang-dog revenge" on its side last weekend. In the last two years, Bowling Green beat Temple 70-7 and 70-16. It's payback time!
Boise State plays Wednesday night this week against an imploding Fresno State team. Boise State is favored by about 3 TDs and shouldn't have any trouble winning. And that should keep Boise State's chances for a BCS berth alive. Last weekend's results should help Boise State on the computers; Oregon State beat USC last weekend but Boise State waxed Oregon State by 4 TDs earlier this season. [Note: Proofreading this on Thursday, I notice that Boise State won last night by 24 points.]
What has happened to the football programs in the ACC? It is possible that the ACC Championship Game - scheduled for Jacksonville Florida where they have to put tarps on some of the seats for NFL games just to make the stadium look crowded - could be Georgia Tech vs. Boston College. I'm sure the attendance for a game like that would be announced as a figure at or near sell-out level, but I wonder if they could actually put more than 40,000 fannies in seats for that game in good weather.
Florida State was once "the bigfoot" in the ACC. This year, FSU is 4-4 and needs to find two more wins from the three games left on the schedule just to be eligible to be invited to play in the American Standard Porcelain Bowl. They should be favored against Western Michigan but the other two games are against Wake Forest (7-1 as I'm typing this) and Florida (7-1 as I'm typing this). There are noises emanating from Tallahassee that Bobby Bowden might not "have it" anymore; if the Seminoles aren't bowl eligible, expect those noises to get louder and nastier. Or even more humiliating, suppose the only bid they get is in that game in Boise, Idaho on the blue Astroturf…
NC State is another football enigma. The Wolfpack has lost games to Akron and Southern Miss; they've beaten Florida State and Boston College; recently they've lost three straight to Wake Forest, Maryland and UVa. At this moment, Chuck Amato is 25-26 in ACC games during his tenure there; NC State will not be favored in two of its final three conference games (Georgia Tech, Clemson, UNC). If form holds, Amato will be 26-28 in the conference at the end of this topsy-turvy season; if he survives, it will be because the buyout of his contract is too expensive for the AD to swallow. On the other hand, if NC State misses out on a bowl game even with the likes of Appalachian State and East Carolina on the schedule in Raleigh, maybe the AD can't afford not to buy him out…
After last weekend, I'm not all that surprised that Michigan State announced that coach John L. Smith will not be back next year. Two weeks ago, Michigan State set an NCAA record by coming back from a 35-point deficit - in the second half no less - to win a football game. As I said then, the euphoria had to be tempered by the reality that somehow Michigan State had found a way to fall 5 TDs behind Northwestern in order to allow them to set that record. Last weekend, Michigan State gave up 46 unanswered points in the middle of the game as they lost to Indiana by a score of 46-21. Michigan State's defense is atrocious; against Big Ten opposition, they've allowed just less than 36 points per game.
Since I mentioned Indiana in the last paragraph, the Hoosiers are probably going to be bowl eligible this year. In fact, they'd already be bowl eligible if they hadn't already lost to a Division 1-AA opponent (S. Illinois) and to a less than mediocre UConn team whose only other wins were against Army and Rhode Island. Here is yet one more datum to show that there are just too many damned bowl games.
Here are the best games of the weekend:
Arkansas at South Carolina: Arkansas has the fifth best rushing attack in the country at just over 235 yards per game but they also have the 103rd best passing attack. Even with Steve Spurrier on the sidelines, South Carolina wins with defense; they're only giving up 16.1 points per game. South Carolina still needs a win to be bowl eligible.
BC at Wake Forest: Both teams are 7-1 and both teams are ranked in the Top 25. BC gives up only 77 yards per game rushing and Wake's leading rusher is out this week. Meanwhile, Wake's defense only gives up 15 points per game. If either team gets ahead by 2 TDs, this game is over.
Oklahoma at Texas A&M: The Aggies are 8-1 at the moment but reality strikes this weekend. And often, reality bites. The final three games for A&M are Oklahoma, Nebraska and at Texas. Oklahoma's defense has been just fine; in the last five games, it has given up only 10 points per game including a game against Texas. For the Aggies, this is a big step up in class of opponent.
LSU at Tennessee: LSU leads the nation in total defense and in scoring defense. Before you get too enthralled by that, consider that LSU has only beaten one team with a winning record at this point - - and that team was La-Lafayette. Tennessee had a recent game against Georgia and the Bulldogs had the #1 scoring defense in the country going into that game. All Tennessee did was to hang up 51 points then.
West Virginia at Louisville (Thurs. nite): The winner will think it's Christmas Eve; they'll go to sleep with visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads. All they'll have to do is be sure to get by Pitt and Rutgers to be undefeated for the season and they'll get a gawdy bowl game invitation somewhere. The loser can start to plan for its Halitosis Bowl Game.
Ponderosa Spread Games:
There are six Ponderosa Spread Games this week. The favorite is on the road in three of them. For the second week in a row, Temple isn't here as an underdog…
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Ball State at Michigan - 33.5
Arkansas State at Auburn - 31
USC - 28.5 at Stanford
Hawaii - 26 at Utah State
UNC at Notre Dame - 26
Ohio State - 25 at Illinois
I have eight games this week with a definite "West Coast bias" to them:
(Fri Nite) Air Force - 6.5 at Army (46): These two teams will run the ball and run the ball and then run the ball some more. I like this game to stay comfortably UNDER the total here.
Kansas at Iowa State - 1 (49.5): The AD at Iowa State said this week that he'd be taking time to evaluate coach Dan McCarney after this season. I wonder what took so long; McCarney is 55-83 overall in his tenure in Ames and only 26-67 in conference games. I'm not high on Kansas but I am down on Iowa State. I'll take Kansas with the point here even on the road.
Navy - 10.5 at Duke (47): I suspect the back-up Navy QB has mastered enough of the triple option offense to run the ball successfully against a less than stout Duke defense. If you like Duke, shop this line; you can find it as high as 11.5. I like Navy to win and cover here.
Bowling Green at Akron - 8.5 (46): This pick is purely from an Internet acquaintance of mine who follows NCAA football very thoroughly. He sees Akron slipping from the levels of their early season performance and Bowling Green rebounding from their loss to Temple last week. He calls for Bowling Green to win outright here; I'll just take them with the points. And if they win outright, I'll give a giant tip of the hat in his direction down in Houston as I'm flying home from Las Vegas on Monday.
TCU - 20 at UNLV (43): This is a match-up pick. UNLV throws the ball all the time; TCU's pass defense is mediocre. UNLV's defense is bad all around. So, I'll take this game OVER 43 because I don't think either team is going to stop the other all that often.
Hawaii - 26 at Utah State (68): Here's another match-up play. Hawaii leads the nation in offense and it is commonplace for them to move the ball more than 500 yards in a game. Utah State's defense is one of the ten worst in Division 1-A. Yes, Hawaii has had to change a lot of time zones to get here and they've done that three of the last four games, but I don't think the Aggies can stop them. I'll take Hawaii and lay the points here.
Washington at Oregon - 13.5 (50.5): Washington's offense became one-dimensional when the starting QB went down; they run the ball. One-dimensional rushing offenses can be stopped unless the offensive line is so dominating that it can gouge holes in nine-man defensive fronts. Washington's OL isn't that good. Oregon is at home and coming off a bye week. I'll take Oregon to win and cover here.
UCLA at Cal - 16.5 (52): UCLA's offense had been struggling but the UCLA defense had been keeping games respectable. Last week, Washington State ran up over 500 yards of offense and more than 400 yards passing. Cal's offense is potent and they can throw the football. So, I'll take Cal to win and cover here.
Good luck.
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