Last weekend was disastrous for Mythical Picks. I case anyone doubted that I'd actually be back to show my face after such a horrid showing, here I am.
-
Did I take Chicago and lay 13.5 points? I surely did.
Did I take Oakland/Seattle OVER? I surely did.
Did I take Atlanta and lay 5 points? I surely did.
For the season, the mythical profit has turned into a mythical deficit. The cumulative results now stand at 71-68-2 for a net Mythical Loss of $210.
Just in case anyone thinks I'm due for a huge rebound this week and begins to consider betting the grocery money on some games, let me remind you that no one should use any information here as the basis for taking a side in any real wager. If you think such stupid thoughts you would very properly sense a deep and empty void - - between your ears.
There's only one really bad match-up this weekend so instead of awarding Skunks to games this week, I'll just identify the Doghouse Game of the Week.
KC at Miami (pick 'em) (40): KC won last week by running the ball down the throat of the Rams' defense. Miami's rushing defense is about 40 yards per game better than the Rams' defense so I don't expect the Chiefs to run wild here. And while I don't want to make Damon Huard out to be Johnny Unitas, he's unlikely to be as generous to the Dolphins as Rex Grossman was last weekend. It will be interesting to see if the dolphins can play with the same energy and determination that they showed last week - but have not shown every week this year. I say no and I'll take KC to win the game here.
Houston at Jax - 10.5 (38): Houston got pushed around on defense early in the game against the Giants last week but then they started to push back. Mario Williams has a sack in each of the last three games; that's what they drafted him to do. Houston's defense is no longer the worst in the league; they're now up to 28th in the league. Houston beat Jax a couple of weeks ago in Houston, so there is a "revenge factor" at work here and a reason to believe that Jax will not be looking ahead to the Giants next week. The key here is that Jax should be able to run the ball on Houston but Houston won't run on Jax. I see a low scoring game here so I'll take the Texans with the generous helping of points here and root for them to get 17 points.
San Diego - 1 at Cincy (48): This is it for the Bengals; they're two full games behind the Ravens and the Ravens have won the first head-to-head match of the year. They need to win a minimum of 5 of their last 8 games to make the playoffs and maybe it will take 6. San Diego isn't a pushover by any stretch of the imagination, but this is a home game for the Bengals; they'll go to Indy and Denver later on and they really ought not to plan for Indy to have clinched home field advantage by then so the Colts will just be going through the motions. They've already lost twice at home this year; a third loss does not create a "playoff environment". The Chargers are the better team but the Bengals have to have this game. I'll take Cincy with the point.
Cleveland at Atlanta - 7.5 (42): Michael Vick must be one of a set of twins. For every Falcons' game, you need to guess which Michael Vick will show up and play. The one that showed up against the Lions last week was the Mediocre Michael; if he shows up again this week, the Browns could win outright. The Lions went into last week's game with the 29th ranked pass defense; Mediocre Michael's output against that defense was 163 yards with 1 TDs and 2 INTs and a QB Rating of 52.1. Can you spell "unimpressive"? However if Magnificent Michael shows up… The Browns' offense is really anemic, but it sure looked as if a top-flight college team could throw on that Falcons' secondary last week and I won't even mention the less than wonderful tackling that went on back there. I'll take this game OVER.
Baltimore - 6.5 at Tennessee (38.5): Since Brian Billick took over the offense, the Ravens have scored 61 points. Of course, some of that has come directly from the defense and from the ability of the Ravens' defense to give the offense a short field. Tennessee plays hard and has its better days and its worse days; that is typical for a young team. Tennessee tends to run the ball better than it throws the ball but the Ravens allow less than 70 yards per game rushing. I'll take the Ravens here and lay the points because they just might hold the Titans to 13 points or less.
Buffalo at Indy - 11 (45): Unless Peyton Manning decides to play Mah-Jongg in the locker room instead of QB on the field, the winner of the game here is not in doubt. And this spread isn't enough to scare me off. Bills' fans can point to their win over the Vikes; fine, I'll point to the Bills' loss to the Lions. I don't want to make the Colts' defense out to be anything more than average, but last week, the Packers putrid pass defense found a way to contain the Bills' passing attack; JP Losman managed only 102 yards passing; the Colts' defense is at least as good as the Packers'. When they win here, Indy will be the first team in NFL history to start two consecutive seasons with 9-0 records. I'll take Indy to win and cover.
Washington at Philly - 7 (42.5): Talk about schizophrenic teams; if you have any idea which combination of squads will actually take the field in Philly on Sunday, you ought to take over for Miss Cleo. Both teams need this game; Washington needs to win at least 6 of their remaining games to make the playoffs; the Eagles have to convince themselves that bad things aren't going to happen to them in the 4th quarter of every game. The Eagles are already two games behind the Giants and tied with the Cowboys. If you look at the Philly schedule from here to the end of December, you'll see there aren't many soft spots. They need to win at home here. I like this game OVER.
Green Bay at Minnesota - 5 (39.5): Two weeks ago, the Vikings offense got stuffed by the Patriots; they were held to seven points. OK, that's not all that surprising because the Patriots have a good defense. Then last week the Vikings offense was held to 3 points by the 49ers - - who have the worst scoring defense in the NFL. This is a dome game and the Vikes play better indoors so I'll take them here and lay the points - - with exactly no enthusiasm or conviction.
Jets at New England - 10 (39.5): The Pats are the better team; the Pats lost last weekend and they have not lost consecutive games since late in 2002. I can't find a stat on this but I'm confident that Tom Brady hasn't ever thrown 4 INTs in consecutive games and won't do that again on Sunday. I'd be tempted to take this game on the money line except the Pats are - 600 there and that's too steep. The Jets passing game is meager; they average 181.5 yards per game so they need to run the ball to mix things up. The Pats rushing defense is really good; they give up only 75.1 yards per game. I don't see how the Jets can come from behind here if the Pats get a lead - and I'm confident they will get a lead. I'll take the Pats and lay the points here. Shop the line if you like the Jets; the line is 10.5 in many places and as high as 11 in one place.
SF at Detroit - 6 (44.5): I hope you are not surprised to learn that this is the Doghouse Game of the Week. The Niners give up just less than 30 points a game; the Lions give up just over 25 points a game. Looking at those numbers, you'd think this game would be an easy OVER bet. Then you look on the offensive side of the ball and see that the Niners score 18 points per game and the Lions score 20. So that looks like an easy UNDER bet. I'm going to go with the "pathetic defense" trend here and take the game OVER.
Denver - 9 at Oakland (33): This will be a low scoring game. Denver has a really good defense and Oakland's offense is just horrid. The Raiders couldn't score even with a hip flask full of vodka on prom night. Denver has scored 31 points in each of the last two weeks but I don't think that is a trend they can maintain especially against a Raiders' defense that has only allowed 51 points in its last 4 games. This game could easily wind up 13-9 except for Andrew Walter's ability to keep the Raiders' defense on the field for forever and a week. I can't play this game UNDER; the total is just too low. I won't give up 9 points in a game that I think could wind up 13-9. And I can't take Oakland when there is a possibility they could be shut out again; it's happened twice already and Denver only gave Oakland a field goal in their first meeting this year. Since I said I'd make a pick in every game, I'll actually take this game OVER and pray for the Raiders to get a couple of turnovers that create a short field and maybe 13 points for their side on Sunday.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh - 5 (45): I am not going to make any friends among the readers from Western Pennsylvania who send notes along to me more than once in a while. I really do think the Saints are going to win this game outright. So I'll take the Saints with the points here. In addition, I'll put a mythical $50 on the Saints to win outright on the money line at +220.
St. Louis at Seattle - 3 (44): This game means a lot to both teams. If the Seahawks win, that gives them a win in both games against the Rams this year and that means a half-game advantage to them in the standings because head-to-head competition is the first of the NFL tiebreakers for a division championship. The myth that Seattle never loses at home was shattered by the Vikings a couple of weeks ago. Here's the crux of this game. Can the Seahawks defense contain the Rams' offense? If so, Seattle should win comfortably; if not, Seattle is in deep yogurt. So, my choice in this game is to play the game OVER since that can happen if either defense stumbles or if either offense comes out firing on all eight cylinders.
Dallas - 6.5 at Arizona (43.5): The record says that the Cardinals lose big on the road and lose close games at home. To be fair and balanced, let me also acknowledge that the one game the Cards won was at home on opening day against the 49ers. I suspect that the Cowboys will focus on Edgerrin James and prevent him from gaining more than 75-80 yards on the assumption that the Cards can keep this game close enough to run the ball all game long. That means the wager is the Dallas offense (particularly the passing offense) against the Arizona defense (particularly the passing defense). The Arizona pass defense lacks two things - a pass rush and good coverage in the secondary. On that basis, I like Dallas to win and cover. If you like Arizona, shop the line because it is at 7 in a lot of places.
Chicago at Giants - 1 (39): This is the best game of the weekend. If you even try to make a case for some other game, you need to stop reading anything that purports to be analytical and objective about the NFL. The winner of this game has the inside track - nowhere near a mortal lock but a small advantage - on getting home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. As of this weekend, these are the two teams in the NFC playing the best football. Earlier I tried to make the distinction between Magnificent Michael Vick and Mediocre Michael Vick. Now consider which Rex Grossman will take snaps from center in this game. Might it be "Rationally Resourceful" Rex or might it be "Random Response" Rex? I'll take the game UNDER because that is what my coin-flipping regimen says to take.
Tampa Bay at Carolina -10 (37): This may be a good football game; but if it is, that is nothing more than pure good luck for ESPN. Here are two teams who ought to have winning records; neither does. Here are two teams with defensive units that are superior to either offensive unit. The total is too low to take UNDER. So, I'll take Tampa with the points in a low scoring game. If you like the Panthers here, the line is at 9.5 in more than a couple of places.
Good luck.
= Archives = Pros = Scores = Contact =