If I believed in omens, I never would have made out of bed last Saturday for college football games. I had Army/Air Force to go under 46 on Friday night and the score was 43-0 at the half. That has to be a loser, right? Well it was still 43-0 with just over a minute to play when Air Force gave up a meaningless TD to put the game over. If I believed in omens, I would have stayed in bed all day Saturday - - and I would have missed out on a mythical profit for the week.
The Ponderosa Spread Favorites were 2-4 in their six games this weekend. Eerily, the favorites in these games for the season have a cumulative 32-33-1 record against the spread. The people setting those lines are pretty good, no?
In my Games of Interest, I was 5-3 for a mythical profit of $170 for the weekend. That brings the season record here to 27-21-1 for a mythical profit of $390.
No one reading this should take any of the information here and use it as a basis for making a real wager. To do that a person would have to be really stupid - stupid enough to name their pet zebra, Spot.
General Comments:
I ran across an article saying that wagering on pro and college football in Nevada alone has gone up 18% in the last year. The article said that from May 1, 2005 through April 30, 2006 Nevada handled just over $1B in football action. The handle for the previous year was $844M. With the current crackdown on Internet gambling, my guess is that this number will go up another 15% next year. If you want to get in on a growth industry, go publish some kind of "Expert Selection Service" and find a way to market it creatively. And if your selections are any good at all, take your revenues and parlay them on your picks…
Kansas State has a record of 6-4 so far this year and is bowl eligible. This is the first season under the guidance of coach Ron Prince. Had the season gone south for the Wildcats, I was ready to say that the school intended to hire a "prince" but had hired a "pauper" instead. Well, I guess I won't be able to use that line. Oops, I just did…
I'm sure you've seen the replays of Joe Paterno taking a roll block on the sidelines last week and being carted off the field with his leg immobilized. He's recovering from surgery at age 79. Here's how Dwight Perry looked at all of this in the Seattle Times:
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"Joe Paterno, Penn State's soon-to-be 80 football coach, broke his leg in a sideline mishap during Saturday's game at Wisconsin, school officials announced Sunday.
"Paterno's hardest road ahead won't be rehab, medical experts say, but rather convincing his health plan to cover the carbon-dating tests."
How about some love for the 9-0 Boise State Broncos? Suppose they and the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game are the only undefeated teams in the country? It could happen…
Fresno State is 1-7 so far this year. They are at home this weekend and they are 11.5 point favorites over New Mexico State. That has to be one of the bottom-feeder games of the year…
Meanwhile, Colorado is 1-8 and they are 9 point favorites at home against Iowa State. That should tell you all you really want to know about Iowa State.
The University of Central Florida is 2-7 this year. They go on the road to play Memphis (1-8) and UCF is favored on the road by 2 points. Clearly, this is another bottom-feeder game. Memphis ranks 112th in the nation in rushing defense; that's bad, but UCF ranks 112th in the nation in total defense. Memphis was just plain awful against Southern Mississippi last Sunday night; I don't recall seeing a single Memphis player make a good fundamental tackle in the open field all night - - and Southern Miss had lots of folks running free in the open field all night.
Since I mentioned the Ohio State/Michigan game above, both teams need to remember that the "big game" is next weekend and not this weekend. Both teams seemed to have put it on cruise control last weekend and both came close to an embarrassing moment that would have been worse than the teams soiling themselves in unison at the 50 yard line on national TV. Both Illinois and Ball State - neither team to be associated with the phrase 'really good football team" - attempted onside kicks in the final moments of those games with the hope of beating one of the top ranked teams. That only happens if players/coaches have lost focus. Neither Ohio State nor Michigan plays a top-flight opponent again this weekend, but still … The big game is NEXT weekend, but it won't be nearly as big a game if one of these teams coughs up a hairball THIS week.
There's a similar situation going on in California. USC and Cal will square off next week for what looks to be the PAC-10 title. However, each team has some business to tend to this weekend. Granted, Cal should be able to handle a really sub-par Arizona team even if they are mildly distracted at the time. However, USC has to deal with Oregon. Look, I'm not trying to make Oregon out to be a top-flight team this year, but USC has already lost to Oregon State; and if they can lose to the Beavers, they can lose to the Ducks. So USC had better pay attention to the game at hand and not focus on Cal or Notre Dame down the road.
Florida and South Carolina play this weekend in Gainesville. This will be the first time that Steve Spurrier will return to The Swamp after his highly successful career there. Florida is still looking for some angle to get themselves into the BCS National Championship Game. They will be in the SEC Championship Game in December and have Division I-AA Western Carolina (what the hell is that all about?) next week and then FSU after that. But this week, they have the Ol' Ball Coach to deal with. Ten years ago, Spurrier led the Gators to a national championship; wouldn't it be interesting to him to take his South Carolina team into Gainesville and knock Florida out of the championship picture this year? That would be Urban Meyer's worst nightmare. Gator Nation will go apoplectic.
Until last weekend when FSU won and NC State lost, FSU was tied for last in their division of the ACC. The teams tied for last in the other division of the ACC were - and still are - Duke and UNC. Take yourself back in time about 5 or 6 years and imagine someone telling you that in November of 2006 FSU, Duke and UNC would share that ignominy. I think you would have dismissed that person as a raving lunatic. I would have put that in the same category as being told that FSU and UNC and Duke were fighting for the top spot in the ACC in basketball.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs pulled off a huge upset last weekend beating Alabama at Alabama. Sylvester Croom was passed over for the Alabama job when the school hired Mike Shula despite Croom having played at Alabama. This win has to be sweet for him even if it only brings the team record to 3-7 for the year. Alabama is 6-4 now with two remaining games against LSU and Auburn. Alabama will be underdogs in both of those games so a 6-6 finish and a bowl game no one ever thinks about is the likely fate for the team. The only reason not to start the Mike Shula Unemployment Vigil now is that the school just gave him a contract extension and firing him now could cost a pretty penny. But if they lose the next two games and then get blown out by Dirt Road A&M in the Diddley-Squat Bowl …
Don Shula was a good coach but his son's David and Mike have had only marginal successes - I'm being really polite in the case of David Shula - leading me to believe that the Don Shula coaching tree is growing on a steep hill. These apples fell to the ground and rolled a really long way from that tree.
Georgia started off the season 5-0 and looked like a real team after whupping up on the likes of Western Kentucky, UAB, Mississippi, Mississippi State and South Carolina. Poll voters had them ranked in the Top 10 demonstrating conclusively that poll voters do not take into account the difference between "quality opponents" and "cupcake opponents". But these Bulldogs aren't any good. Since then, Georgia has lost to both Kentucky and Vandy; their record stands at 6-4 with Auburn and Georgia Tech up next. Here's another school that had lofty aspirations in August who will be heading for the "WGARA" Bowl - that's the Who Gives A Rat's Ass Bowl - this year. The calls for the firing of Coach Mark Richt have begun in Georgia.
If I hear one more talking hairdo parrot the spin-doctors line that the Big East is undefeated in games against other BCS conferences and no one else can make that claim, I'm going to gag. Just so you know, here are the out-of-conference powerhouses that the Big East schools managed to squeeze into their schedules:
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Illinois - 2-8 (Lost to two Big East teams)
Indiana - 5-5
Kentucky - 5-4
Kansas State - 6-4
Maryland - 7-2
Miami - 5-4 (OK, everyone thought they'd be better.)
Miss. State - 3-7
UNC - 1-8 (Lost to two Big East teams)
Virginia - 4-6
Having said something unkind about the Big East, let me now say that the Louisville/Rutgers game this weekend is a really big deal. People are talking about Louisville getting to the National Championship Game but no one seems to say that could happen for Rutgers should they win tonight. What's up with that? If Louisville has a shot to go and Rutgers beats them, then Rutgers should be in the mix to have a shot at the final game. Wasn't it Hulk Hogan who used to say, "To be the man, you have to beat the man"? Well if Rutgers beats "the man" …
Rutgers has never played a ranked team while Rutgers was simultaneously a ranked team. There's a factoid of no real value and my Rutgers alum reader pointed out that 137 years ago Rutgers played Princeton in the first football game ever. So technically, after that game, Rutgers was #1 and Princeton was #2. Playing in the first college football game had to be significant since it obviously took hold for the country, but tonight is probably Rutgers' most significant game since then. If it isn't, I'm sure my Rutgers alum reader will educate me on that matter. Tickets for tonight's game in New Jersey are a "tough get"; fans reportedly will be allowed to watch the game from a hillside at the open end of the stadium and the bands will be seated in temporary bleachers to make more room for paying customers.
Let me pose a rhetorical question for Dr. Myles Brand and his band of Merry Men at the NCAA. If you want to rein in these out of control athletic programs and you really believe that athletics are played by student-athletes and for the students, why not give the students all the seats between the 35 yard lines and let them in free with their student IDs? Just asking…
Ponderosa Spread Games:
There are five Ponderosa Spread Games this week. The favorite is at home for all of them and the numbers are very large:
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La Tech at Hawaii - 38
Temple at Penn State - 36
Utah State at Nevada - 30
Duke at Boston College - 30
Kent State at Va Tech - 30
(Thurs 11/9) Louisville - 6.5 at Rutgers (51): This line has moved around a lot and it is down to 5.5 in a few places now. I like Rutgers here because Louisville played their biggest home game in forever last week and won; now they have to go on the road and get up for another undefeated opponent who is now playing in their biggest home game in forever. That's a tough thing to do. Louisville is #2 in the nation in total offense averaging 492 yards per game. Remember they did that with their #1 running back out in the first quarter of the first game and without their #1 QB for several games. Meanwhile Rutgers ranks #2 in total defense giving up only 227 yards per game and a mere 9.1 points per game. I like Rutgers at home with the points here. Now, if you're a staunch Rutgers fan and alum, maybe you will think to man-up and take them to win outright here at +220 on the money line. I'll stick with taking the points, thank you.
Notre Dame - 12 at Air Force (55): I do not think Air Force can win this game even at home and at altitude. But I do think the line is fat. Air Force runs the same kind of offense that Navy runs and Navy had some success with that but was limited by the fact that their first string QB wasn't there to play the game. Air Force will have their first string QB on the field for this game. I like Air Force with the points here.
Wake Forest at Florida State - 9 (41): The line here is caught in a time warp; this isn't 2001 when Florida State was a powerhouse and Wake Forest was a powder puff. I'll take Wake Forest here with all those points in what looks to be a low scoring game.
Ohio State - 22.5 at Northwestern (43): Hopefully, the coaches at OSU got the team's attention during practice this week after the close shave with Illinois last week. If so, Ohio State could pitch a shutout here - or come very close to it. If they do that, they'll cover this number comfortably. I'll take Ohio State and lay the points.
Tennessee at Arkansas - 5 (47): Tennessee lost at the end last weekend; they have injuries at QB and LB; they had three players arrested this week for fighting with one another at 3:00 AM in a state of inebriation. Now they go on the road to play a team that merely needs to win out to get to the SEC title game. Tennessee's hope is to throw the ball because Arkansas' pass defense is "suspect" to say the least. But if the Vols need to use a back-up, how's that gonna work? Arkansas loves to run the ball and LSU showed last weekend that you can indeed run the ball on Tennessee. I like Arkansas here and I'll take them to win and cover.
Vandy at Kentucky - 1.5 (51.5): No, I have not taken leave of my senses. I'm not going to try to pick a winner here. I do think that these are two teams that will not be able to stop each other so I want this game OVER.
Navy - 13 at E. Michigan (47): All Navy wants to do is to run the ball from its triple option offense; they lead the country in rushing. Eastern Michigan is 113th in the nation in rushing defense. Eastern Michigan's only hope is to hit some big passing plays because Navy should control the ball for at least 35 minutes here - - and maybe 40. I'll take Navy and lay the points.
La Tech at Hawaii - 38 (74): Hawaii might score 74 all by themselves here. You'd think that the Hawaii pass defense would be pretty good since it has to practice against the Hawaii offense all the time; well, you'd think incorrectly. This game should be a scoring fest and it could look like the final score of one of those blowout first-round games of the NCAA basketball tournament in March. I'll take the game OVER because the final score could well be 65-40.
Good luck.
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