Two weekends ago, Mythical Picks took gas. Last weekend, they did even worse. I ought to heed the old adage, when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. But undaunted and not humbled even by two weeks that stunk so bad that they would gag a maggot, I shall press on.
-
Did I really take the Pats and lay 10 to the Jets? I did.
Did I really take SF/Detroit OVER? I did
Did I really take Chicago/Giants UNDER? I did
I guess no one will need a reminder not to use anything here as the basis for making a real wager. Under the best of times, that would be a dumb thing to do; but if you did it now on the basis of my displayed ineptitude, you'd be dumb enough to start up a new business enterprise selling refurbished toothbrushes.
General Comments:
I know that the Colts' run defense is "shaky" and that it is way too early to talk about them "running the table"; but indulge me for a moment. Imagine that the Colts are 15-0 going into their final game of the season on New Year's Eve. Their opponent on that day will be - drum roll - the Miami Dolphins. So, here's the question:
-
How much of that game under those circumstances would Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne play?
-
Edgerrin James - a fine RB despite the horrid season he is having behind an even more horrid offensive line in Arizona.
Rob Morris - a linebacker who can play at the NFL level.
Reggie Wayne - an excellent WR.
Dwight Freeney - a fine DE who is having an off-season for him which means he is merely above average.
Dallas Clark - in the "top third" of NFL tight ends.
Marlin Jackson - a competent nickel back and potential starter.
Joseph Addai - a running back who seems to be developing into a quality back.
Can someone tell me whatever happened to "Martyball"? The San Diego Chargers lead the NFL in scoring with 297 points in 9 games. That projects to 528 points for a full season. That hardly calls to mind an offense focused on three yards and a cloud of dust…
Can someone tell me what happened to home field advantage in the NFL? It's mid-November and only Indy and San Diego remain undefeated at home. The Pats have already lost three times at home this year. Home teams are only 81-63 this season, which is a winning percentage of 56%; there have been seasons where that figure was north of 60%.
The Arizona Cardinals are 1-8 and haven't looked interested ever since their monumental meltdown against the Bears on MNF. They have talent on offense at QB and RB and WR but they are still 28th in the NFL in total offense. The reason is really simple; their offensive line stinks. I'm not trying to say that the Cards' defense is all that good; but with that offensive line, it takes a pretty dispirited effort on the part of the opposition to allow the Cards to put up more than 14 points. In fact, they've only done that three times all year. I don't care who the coach or the GM is for Arizona next year, but the team needs to take offensive linemen with at least three of their four top picks even if they have the overall #1 pick.
There are three bad games this weekend among a card that has several very interesting contests. I think you'll be able to tell the games that I hold in low esteem. All I need to do to reach the mythical break-even point in one week is to go 16-1 in my 17 picks this week. Onward!!
Oakland at KC - 10 (35.5): This is a rivalry game. In years past, it would have been a rivalry game of the caliber of Ohio State/Michigan. Now the game has far less impact because the Raiders are just miserable. Trent Green is in this week as the KC QB; Tony Gonzalez is out this week as the KC TE; Aaron Brooks may be back in this week as the Oakland QB; who knows where Jerry Porter will be or if Randy Moss will be happy? I'll take this game OVER. And I'll take Oakland with a very generous helping of points. But I won't add a parlay bet here…
Cincy at New Orleans - 3 (51): Both of these defenses took the week off last week and both teams lost. The Bengals head coach is Marvin Lewis, who is a certified defensive genius, so how can this happen? My guess is that both teams will play better defense this week - meaning that neither team will score more than 35 points. Nevertheless, I still like this game OVER.
Pittsburgh - 3.5 at Cleveland (37): Here is another rivalry game that has had more meaning in years gone by. The Steelers played well last week and if they continue to play well they could salvage a .500 season this year. Cleveland has played tough against everyone except the Bengals back in Week 2 and they won on the road as an underdog last week. It should be a low scoring game and so I'll take the Browns with the points here.
Tennessee at Philly - 13.5 (43): Andy Reid let Marty Mornhinweg call plays last week; the Eagles ran the ball more and won handily. Before everyone gets carried away here and figures that the Eagles have found the keys to the kingdom, remember that this is the same Marty Mornhinweg who did so fabulously as the coach of the Detroit Lions. Remember, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. The Titans lost a lead and the game to the Ravens last week. But the Ravens needed a blocked field goal in the waning seconds to secure the win and the Ravens are a good team. I just don't understand the spread here. I don't think the Titans will win, but I'll take them with the points here.
Atlanta at Baltimore - 4 (40): Baltimore sits comfortably atop their division and they're undefeated since Brian Billick took over the play calling and Jim Fassel took his ball and went home. The Falcons are the only team in the NFL with more first downs rushing than passing. As always, the pick for the Atlanta game is a pure guess with regard to which Vick will show up. Will it be "Magnificent Michael" or "Mediocre Michael"? He's sure been mediocre for the past two weeks so let's guess that he'll be magnificent this week and take the Falcons with the points.
St. Louis at Carolina - 6.5 (44): Carolina seems to be putting the pieces together recently meaning they can be a pretty good team. St. Louis started fast but the Rams have lost the last four games; and much more importantly, they've lost Orlando Pace for the rest of the year. Orlando Pace is one of the top five offensive tackles in the league; whoever replaces him will represent a significant step down in capability. The Rams will not be as bad as the Raiders or the Cardinals for the rest of the year, but I do think they are sufficiently done to stick the fork in them. I'll take the Panthers and lay the points here - - but I wish that half-point weren't there.
Buffalo at Houston - 3 (36.5): The Bills have lost to the Lions by 3 points and the Colts by only 1 point this year. Can you explain that to me? The Texans have beaten the Jaguars twice this year and won outright last weekend as a double-digit underdog, but they lost to the Titans. Can you explain that to me? These are inconsistent teams because they are BAD teams and this is ONE OF THE THREE BAD GAMES THIS WEEK in case anyone hasn't figured that out yet. David Carr is listed as "questionable" for the game with a sore shoulder but I'm assuming he will play. It will be a low scoring affair so I'll hold my nose and take the Bills with the points here.
New England - 5.5 at Green Bay (45.5): The Pats have lost three times at home, but they are 4-0 on the road. Green Bay's last five opponents have been the Rams, Dolphins, Cardinals, Bills and Vikes. Even with the Patriots looking far more vulnerable than they have in recent years, the Packers are stepping up in class this week. But the Pats probably also realize that the Bears are coming to Foxboro next weekend and that might be on their minds just a little. I just flipped my coin here and it says to play this game UNDER.
Washington at Tampa - 4 (34): The Redskins are 3-6 this year; the Bucs are 2-7. Here's the thing about both of them, neither one is as good as the record indicates. These are BAD teams and this is ONE OF THE THREE BAD GAMES THIS WEEK in case anyone hasn't figured that out yet. There will be a rookie QB starting for Washington this week; who knows if he will be good or bad? There will be a rookie QB starting for Tampa this week; we know he's not all that good. It's quite possible that the score for this game at halftime will look like a World Cup Soccer game at halftime - Nil to Nil. Since the spread is more than a field goal, I'll take the Redskins with those points here - - purely on a mythical basis of course.
Chicago - 7 at Jets (38): Enough of the Eric Mangini/Bill Belichick "feud". This is the NFL not the WWE. Here's the challenge for Mangini. Last week the Jets got up and beat a division rival they needed to beat. Can he get the Jets up two weeks in a row to play opponents who have more talent than they do? The Jets won by blitzing Tom Brady and if you are going to beat the Bears you had better find ways to get to Rex Grossman. He's much better when he has time to sit back and survey the field. I like the Jets with the points here.
Minnesota at Miami - 3 (34): Before the season, this looked like it would be an interesting game as Duante Culpepper went against his old team. That won't happen. Earlier this year, it appeared as if this game would be an uninteresting one because the Vikes were really good and the Dolphins were awful. Now look at the spread. The Vikes have lost three in a row including one game where they only managed a single field goal against the Niners. The Dolphins only allow opponents 4.4 yards per offensive play, which is second best in the league. I see the Miami defense shutting down the Vikings' offense and so I'll take the Dolphins and lay the points here.
Detroit at Arizona - 3 (45.5): How do these teams stinketh? Let me count the ways… These are BAD teams and this is ONE OF THE THREE BAD GAMES THIS WEEK in case anyone hasn't figured that out yet. If the Lions aren't hugely insulted to be getting points against a dogbreath team like the Cards, then they have no pride. [Get it? Lions … pride. BaDaBing! BaDaBoom!!] These are two really bad defenses so, I'd normally be tempted to take the OVER, but these are two really bad offenses too. I think this game will stay comfortably in the 30s and so I'll take it UNDER.
Seattle - 3 at SF (44.5): Even if Shaun Alexander does not play at all on Sunday, I still like the Seahawks here. The Niners are improving, but I don't think they can hang with the Seahawks - even the injured version of the Seahawks - just yet. I like Seattle to win and cover here.
Indy - 1 at Dallas (48): This is one of the two best games of the weekend. You can run on the Colts and Dallas has a couple of good running backs. You can pass on the Cowboys and the Colts have been known to move the ball through the air. I smell a track meet here. I want this game OVER. [By the way, here's an omen for hunch players only: Emmitt Smith is a former Cowboys' RB and he pulled a huge upset by winning the Dancing With the Stars competition this week. Indy is undefeated this year. Connect the dots…]
San Diego at Denver - 3 (43): This is the other really good game this weekend and it's a division game to boot. The Chargers have not done well at Denver for the past decade or so but the Chargers are hitting on all cylinders now. Denver's defense is way too good to allow the Chargers to score in the 40s the way they did last week, but the Chargers defense is good enough to keep Jake Plummer and the "Denver running back du jour" in check. I'll take the Chargers with the points here.
Giants at Jax - 3 (38.5): The Giants are hurt; the Jags are inconsistent. The Giants need the game to stay in charge in the NFC East. The Jags need the game to stay relevant in the AFC Wild Card race; face it, they ain't catching the Colts. I know the Giants' defense is banged up but I found it amazing when I ran across this stat: The Giants defense allows opponents to convert third down situations over 46% of the time. Wow! I'm assuming that Eli Manning will not have two putrid games in a row and so I'll take this game OVER.
Good luck.
= Archives = Pros = Scores = Contact =