The collegiate side of Mythical Picks did very well last weekend. I won't mention how badly the NFL version did until I write those picks for this weekend where I will be forced to 'fess up.
There were five Ponderosa Spread Games last weekend. The favorite covered in three of the five games bringing the season total for Ponderosa Spread Games to 35-35-1. That's scary, folks…
In my games of interest, I made eight picks. I went 7-1 for the weekend for a mythical profit of $590. That brings my season totals to 34-22-1, which would yield a mythical profit of $980.
Notwithstanding last week's outstanding results nor with regard to the overall mythical profit supposedly produced during this season, no one should even think about using any information here as the basis for making a real wager involving actual negotiable currency. You'd have to be pretty stupid to do that. I fact, you'd be stupid enough to believe that manual labor is the guy who is the President down there in one of the Latin American countries.
General Comments:
With all of the attention paid to the Ohio State/Michigan game this weekend - and all of the attention is justified because this is a game that any college football fan would want to watch - I ran across a stat relating to how competitive this series has been. In the last 50 meetings between Ohio State and Michigan, the record is 24-24-2. Many of those games were nail-biters that went deep into the 4th quarter before the outcome was decided; this Saturday's game could be the same.
However, here in Curmudgeon Central, I like to look at the other side of college football. Did you know that there are only two winless teams in Division 1-A this year? Florida International - famous for its altercation with Miami - is 0-8; Duke - famous for its basketball team - is 0-9. With Duke, it's not hard to find a basis for that miserable record because Duke ranks 115th (out of 119 schools) in total offense and 103rd in scoring defense. Here's something harder to understand. Temple is 119th (dead last) in total offense and 116th in total defense; and yet, Temple has won a game. How did that happen?
Stanford is no longer in the ranks of the winless thanks to their victory over Washington last week. Washington started off winning four if its first five games and looked like a shoo-in for a bowl invitation - something they haven't had for three or four years now. However, their QB got hurt and now Washington has lost 6 in a row. Losing the #1 QB is hard on any football team and it usually is a disaster in college football, but Washington lost to Stanford last week and Stanford is just awful. It will be interesting to see if Washington can put together a real effort against in their rivalry game this week against Washington State.
Another miserable team is New Mexico State. These Aggies are 2-8 but those two wins came over Southeastern Louisiana and Texas Southern, which are not football schools of any note. NM State has this weekend off to prepare to play Utah State on Nov 25. Utah State is also known as the Aggies and is equally miserable with a record of 1-9. If someone offered me an all expense paid trip to the venue for that game and $500/hour from hotel to the game and back to the hotel just to watch, I'd have to inform them that I had an urgent need to stay home and rearrange my sock drawer.
Often, I get e-mails telling me that I have over-reacted to something that has happened in the sports world and that I really need to relax a bit more. To everyone who has ever sent me a note like that, please be aware that police are investigating e-mailed threats made to Doug Flutie and his family for comments Flutie made on TV about the Texas/K-State game, which Texas lost last week. The note evidently said that Flutie had "jinxed the Longhorns" and thereby took them out of the BCS National Championship picture. And for such "jinxing", the sender thought that threatening Flutie and his family was an appropriate response. All I might do in situations like that would be to wish that the fleas of a thousand camels would infest his armpits. [Hat tip to Johnny Carson as Carnac the Magnificent for that line…]
Last weekend was a shocker for more teams than Texas. Auburn, Cal and Louisville had huge aspirations going into their games last weekend. So did Texas. Now they will all have to change the focus for their "post-Christmas travel plans"; Auburn may have played itself out of the BCS bowl games completely with the stinker they turned in last week.
BYU started off this season losing two of their first three games but they've won seven in a row since then and will win the Mountain West Conference outright if they beat New Mexico this weekend [see Ponderosa Spread Games below]. The prize for winning the MWC is a trip to Las Vegas for the Las Vegas Bowl. This will not be BYU's first time there, but there always seems to be something incongruous about BYU going to Las Vegas …
Texas Tech seems to have perfected the art of losing big leads this year. Last week they led Oklahoma 24-10 with a minute to go in the first half; Tech lost 34-24. Earlier this year, Tech led Texas 21-0; Tech lost 34-31. One reason is that Tech cannot or will not run the ball. In these two games where Texas Tech squandered huge leads they only ran the ball 24 times (and only gained 30 yards on those 24 carries) while throwing the ball 110 times. There's a reason why a balanced attack works well in football; that message seems not yet to have reached the outpost known as Texas Tech.
NC State visits UNC this weekend in what might just be the "Dead Man Walking Bowl". John Bunting is already gonzo at UNC and unless there is a humongous buy-out clause in Chuck Amato's contract, he too should be looking for work in the very near future. Maybe the players will sense this and everyone will play to their fullest capacity on Saturday in order to "audition" for the new coaching staff. Or not…
There are lots of huge rivalry games this weekend including:
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Auburn/Alabama: Both teams are disappointing and disappointed by their seasons. Alabama has lost the last four games in this series; Mike Shula has been the coach in the last three of these games; no coach at Alabama has ever lost four consecutive games to Auburn. Wanna bet Mike Shula knows all about that datum?
West Virginia/Pitt: The big problem for Pitt is that they don't stop the run very well; they couldn't stop UConn last week. What West Virginia can and will do is run the ball. [I wrote this commentary the day before the game; I think I was pretty much on target with this one…]
Tennessee/Vandy: If Erik Ainge can play, Tennessee should roll here because Vandy's pass defense gives up lots of yards. If he can't …???
K-State/Kansas: The Kansas pass defense is awful and K-State was able to torch Texas through the air last week. Unless Kansas can control the ball, they'll have a long day here.
USC hosts Cal this weekend. This game had lots of star appeal until Cal gagged away a game to Arizona last weekend. Nevertheless, the winner here is the PAC-10 champion and if USC wins, that will keep them in the discussion as the proper January opponent for the Ohio State/Michigan winner.
And then I have to wonder why Florida is playing Western Carolina this weekend. It's "Senior Day" in Gainesville. Did they have to go and find a Division 1-AA school for that occasion?
Western Michigan travels to Tallahassee to play Florida State this weekend. If there is a rich tradition to this game, I certainly don't know it. And when the ADs signed the contract for this game, do you think either of them thought that Western Michigan would have two more wins for the season than Florida State has at the time of kickoff? They do.
Ponderosa Spread Games:
There are eight Ponderosa Spread Games this week. The favorite is at home for all of them. And, no, that is not the Buffalo Bills who are 38-point underdogs to Wisconsin on Saturday…
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Buffalo at Wisconsin - 38
Utah State at Boise State - 38
Temple at Navy - 31.5
Army at Notre Dame - 31.5
Duke at Georgia Tech - 27
Mississippi at LSU - 27
New Mexico at BYU - 26.5
San Jose State at Hawaii - 24
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Interestingly, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech both have major rivalry games next week that will play a huge role in where they wind up during bowl season. Notre Dame will play USC and Georgia Tech will play Georgia. So, might both of them be "looking ahead" to those games while facing two really weak foes this week? Similarly, LSU has Arkansas on tap and while that might not be a rivalry of the same intensity as these other two games, it is a game that could affect where LSU plays during bowl season. Maybe they're looking ahead too?
Games of Interest:
Let me be clear about this. I want to watch the Ohio State/Michigan game just to enjoy it. I will not take a side nor propose even a Mythical Pick on it; that would make me look at the game in a completely different light. The spread on the game is Ohio State - 6.5 or -7 depending on where you look. The over/under is 40.5 just about everywhere. If you love or hate either side here, feel free to think about wagering on the game; if you just want to see what should be a really wonderful football game, forget the betting aspect. If you put a gun to my head and made me wager, I'd fall back on my rule of thumb and take the points in a low scoring game. But I don't see any guns anywhere near my head at the moment…
Illinois - 2 at Northwestern (47): Here are two bad football teams. Illinois must work overtime at practice each week to come up with ways to lose football games. Meanwhile, Northwestern has on its résumé that it blew a 35 point lead to an outstandingly mediocre Michigan State team to lose the game and set an NCAA record. Illinois is merely awful while Northwestern is butt-ugly miserable. I'll take Illinois even on the road and even laying the points.
Indiana at Purdue - 10 (57): Neither team can stop a run in a pair of pantyhose. Unless these teams turn the ball over five times in the red zone, the game total here should be in the 70s. I like this game OVER.
Temple at Navy - 31.5 (55): See above for data about just how bad Temple is. More importantly, Temple has the worst rushing defense in the nation while Navy has the most prolific rushing offense in the nation. Navy averages 325 yards rushing per game; might they get 450 this weekend? I'll take Navy and lay the points.
OK State at Texas Tech - 6 (68): You know that commercial where the guy is being enticed to switch cell phone networks and he tips over one of the "people" and it's a cardboard cut out and the whole network falls over like dominoes. Well that's what the defensive units will be like in this game. Meanwhile OK State has the fifth ranked offense in the nation while Texas Tech is ranked eighth. I like the game OVER.
Maryland at BC - 7 (39.5): In a low scoring game, I'll take Maryland with a full touchdown's worth of points.
San Jose State at Hawaii - 24 (74): Hawaii's defense is 80th in the nation against the run and 106th in the nation against the pass. Hawaii didn't get its 8-2 record by stopping anyone. Meanwhile, Hawaii has scored 60 points or more for three straight weeks; if your defense takes even a couple of plays off, Hawaii will be in the end zone. San Jose State should be able to score 25-30 points here; so all it will take for the game to go OVER would be Hawaii to score 45-50. For Hawaii, that's been a walk in the park. I'll take another Hawaii game OVER.
Idaho at Fresno State - 11 (54): I know that Idaho is not a force majeure in college football, but frankly, neither is this Fresno State team. They are 2-7 and they don't score a ton of points. So, I'll take Idaho with the points here.
Nevada - 17 at La. Tech (58): La Tech's defense is ranked 119th [out of 119 teams] in Division I-A. Nevada has scored 40 points or more the last three weeks. Even on the road, I'll take Nevada to win and cover here.
Good luck.
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