After two disastrous weeks of mythical picking, all I needed to do to get into the black last weekend was to go 16-1 in my seventeen picks. That didn't happen.
-
Did I lose by 0.5 points in the Cleveland/Pitts game? Yes.
Did I lose the UNDER in the Saints game because they scored 16 points while gaining almost 600 yards on offense? Yes.
Did I lose the OVER in the Giants game because they kept turning the ball over? Yes.
Of course, no one will use any information here as the basis for making a wager or for deciding what side to back in a wager if said wager involved actual coin of the realm. I'll tell you how dumb you'd have to be to do that. It would make you dumb enough that it probably took you until you were a teenager to learn to wave bye-bye.
General Comments:
I ran across the following stat and found it interesting. I always had a sense that this was the case, but here are the data to give it credence. It is the final six games of the NFL season that usually foretell the teams that will go to the Super Bowl. Of course, the first ten games do matter because teams that dig too deep a hole in the first part of the season can't get to the Super Bowl no matter what they do. But the best indicator of a team ready to do some business in the playoffs and into late January/early February is the performance in the final six games of the season.
In the last 25 years, four of the eventual Super Bowl champions finished the season 6-0 in the final six games and twelve finished 5-1. So 64% of eventual Super Bowl champions romped through the Thanksgiving weekend game and the month of December. [By the way, eight more eventual Super Bowl champs were 4-2 in their last six games.]
The homestretch of the NFL season begins this weekend so it's time to pay close attention to the teams that get on a roll starting now.
There aren't any real stinkers among the games this weekend. Arizona/Minnesota is not a game you'd want to go out of your way to see, but the Vikings aren't horrible. Early in the season, I thought that Miami/Detroit on Thanksgiving Day would be a disastrous game but the Dolphins have played solidly for the last few weeks. It may not be a "match-up for the ages"; it may even be the worst game of the weekend, but it isn't putrid. So, I won't be issuing any "Skunks" this weekend.
On the other hand, there are three really good games this weekend. I think I'll be able to communicate to you fairly clearly which games I think they are as we go through the picks.
The Picks:
(Thurs) Miami - 2.5 at Detroit (39): The Miami defense is solid and their offense is improving. Detroit is just plain awful. I'll take the Dolphins and lay the points here.
(Thurs) Tampa at Dallas - 10.5 (39.5): Dallas is trying to put together a playoff run. Tampa's playoff aspirations are sort of like Dan Ackroyd's aspirations to play Macbeth on the London stage; they're not gonna materialize. Bruce Gradkowski is a young QB just learning his craft; the Cowboys' defense is good and complicated. I see Dallas creating turnovers here the way my long-suffering wife creates turnovers to go with a yummy dinner. I'll take Dallas to win and cover here.
(Thurs) Denver at KC (pick 'em) (38): Here's one of the really GOOD GAMES of the weekend. But you probably won't see it. Remember, this is "The Game" on "The EVIL NFL Network" on Thursday night. Don't bet on this game; send a message to the NFL that you don't like national games that aren't available nationally. In fact, maybe the NFL needs an "e-mail jihad" to descend on it starting on Friday morning. If they get a million or so e-mails complaining about the unavailability of the games on NFLN, maybe they'll find a way to make them more available. I'll make a pick here just for mythical purposes but I reiterate, do not bet on this game. I'll take the Chiefs
Jax - 3 at Buffalo (35.5): I don't like the Bills all that much but the Jags just aren't as good on the road as they are at home. I agree with the oddsmakers here; this will be a low scoring game and so I'll take the Bills with no conviction whatsoever. As folks get themselves all in a knot finding ways to say wonderful things about David Garrard in Jax, please remember that the Jags are 0-2 against the Texans this year.
Houston at Jets - 5.5 (40): The Jets' defense ranks 29th in the league in yards allowed and they've given up 40 more points than they've scored this year. But the Jets are 5-5. The Texans' defense ranks 28th in the league in yards allowed and they've given up 65 points more than they've scored this year. That's why they are 3-7. Call this a venue selection. I'll take the Jets at home and lay the points.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore - 3.5 (38): Here's one of the really GOOD GAMES of the weekend. The Steelers need to win out if they have a prayer of making it as a wild card team in the playoffs. Their schedule is not all that daunting; the Ravens are the best team left on their dance-card and the Steelers have them twice. They really need this game in the worst way. I'll take the Steelers with the points here and hope that they got their sloppiness out of their systems against the Browns last weekend.
Cincy - 3 at Cleveland (43.5): This is a big rivalry game and the Bengals offense has clicked the last two weeks. However, the Bengals' defense gave up 49 points two weeks ago and almost 600 yards of offense last week. The Browns will not come close to either number this weekend. Charlie Frye is not going to be confused with the leader of a super-potent offense any time this year. I'm tossing a coin here and it says to take this game UNDER.
Arizona at Minnesota - 6 (39): This game came close to getting a call as a putrid game but the mellowness of the Thanksgiving season overrode that temptation. The Vikings are in a death spiral at the moment but they have a soft schedule in front of them; only the Bears next weekend in Chicago look unbeatable. But the Vikes do have three of their final six games on the road. The Cardinals are just inept. If the Arizona Cardinals made a movie and they showed it on an airplane during a transoceanic flight, half a dozen people would walk out. They couldn't hit sand if they fell off a camel. So, I can't take them here. I'll take the Vikes and lay the points with great trepidation.
SF at St. Louis - 6 (45): Is it possible that the Niners are on the verge of becoming a decent football team again? I'm not sure about that. But I am sure that the Rams have lost five in a row and are not on the verge of becoming a decent football team. I'll take the Niners with the points here.
New Orleans at Atlanta - 3.5 (48): I never bought into the "Saints as everyone's second favorite team" nonsense this year. It would have been most un-curmudgeonly to do so. I've never bought into the "Michael Vick is a great QB" nonsense because he just isn't. The Falcons are the reason you should never wager on every game on the board because the Falcons' games are decided by whether or not Michael Vick has a good day or a bad day and that's a random event. I'll take the Saints here just because I took the Falcons last week and they stunk out the joint.
Carolina - 3.5 at Washington (36.5): The Redskins are a mess. Even with 21 coaches on the staff, this team has no direction and no focus. Carolina is back in a tie for their division lead with the Saints and they like to run the ball. That ought to work against the Redskins' defense this week. I'll take the Panthers to win and cover here. I also want the game UNDER but no parlay here.
Oakland at San Diego - 13 (44): I'm going to play this game UNDER on the basis that Oakland might not score 10 points. And I'll take the Chargers to win and cover. And just for fun, I'll make a separate parlay bet here too.
Chicago at New England - 3.5 (36.5): Here's one of the really GOOD GAMES of the weekend. Chicago is undefeated on the road; the Pats have a losing record at home. The Bears' defense will make things tough for the Pats' offense; the Pats' defense will certainly make life miserable for an inconsistent Rex Grossman. But it will be a low scoring game so I'll take the Bears with more than a field goal's worth of points.
Giants - 3 at Tennessee (43): This is a make-or-break game for the Giants. They have a tough schedule in front of them and they have to win three of their last six games to have a shot at the playoffs. If they lose here, I wonder how long it will be into the next game at home against the Cowboys for the fans to start to call for Eli Manning to be benched in favor of Jared "J-Load" Lorenzen? Here's what the Giants have going for them; the Titans do not play the run well; the Titans give up almost 150 yards a game there. But the Titans play hard and their running game seems to be coming alive. I'll take the Titans with the points here.
Philly at Indy - 9 (44): The Eagles are toast. Indy has the "undefeated monkey" off their backs. The Colts romp here. I'll take Indy and lay the points.
(MNF) Green Bay at Seattle - 9.5 (46): With the participation of key players still up in the air, this game is a coin toss. I'll take the Seahawks to win and cover here but not with any great interest.
Good luck.
= Archives = Pros = Scores = Contact =