Sports Curmudgeon - Wagers: NCAA Picks: Mythical Picks for Friday 11/24/06

Last week was not a good one for the collegiate version of Mythical Picks. I would have been better off mindlessly playing the Ponderosa Spread favorites last week. In those games, the favorites covered in five of the eight games. That would produce a small weekly mythical profit and the results brought the yearly totals to 40-38-1. Interestingly, you should note that the oddsmakers have been sufficiently shrewd to set their line such that you could not show a profit either way if you had gone with or against the favorites in these games all season long. That's why these guys work in casinos that have rugs thick enough to suck the loafers off your feet if you don't walk carefully…

In my games of interest, I went 2-5-1.

Did I take Idaho who scored ZERO points? Yes I did.

Did I take the Maryland Fumbling Machine? Yes I did.

In any event, the weekly Mythical Loss was $350. The season totals now stand at 36-27-2 which would yield a Mythical Profit of $630.

No one should consider using any information herein as the basis for making a wager or for deciding which side to take in a wager involving real money. Only dumb people would do that - - only people dumb enough to be able to go to a mind reader and receive a discount for the reading.

General Comments:

I want to say this carefully and respectfully. Each and every one of the radio/TV college football experts who even hinted that Rutgers could be a contender for the National Championship Game should face one of two fates:

2. Being made to wear Rutgers #1 gear at all times for an entire calendar year.

They can take their pick…

A long time reader of these essays is an Auburn graduate who revels in those times when Auburn opens a can of whoop-ass and sprays it all over Alabama. She sent me a note on Sunday asking me what Auburn and the moon have in common. Her answer was that like Auburn, the moon controls The Tide. [BaDaBing! BaDaBoom!]

Alabama's season is over; their record is 6-6; Mike Shula has lost four consecutive games to Auburn. In the four-year Mike Shula era at Alabama, the team is 25-23 overall, 13-19 in SEC games and 0-19 when it goes into the fourth quarter behind in the score. My friend/former colleague sent along those stats in bold type telling me not to ignore them or miss them. Here's what I don't understand:

Why did the university/athletic department feel the need to give Mike Shula a contract extension before this season started? Speaking of less than fully successful coaches, Jeff Bowden was induced to resign as offensive coordinator at Florida State after five or six less than lustrous years in that job. According to reports, the boosters there put together an incentive package that will pay Jeff Bowden $107,500 per year for the next 5 years just to go away. And supposedly, there is no "offset provision" here. He can go to the University of Wherever and be their offensive coordinator and still get the money as an annuity over the next five years. He gets that because the school and the boosters think he sucked at his job.

Memo to Me:

I want to talk about the BCS rankings in a moment; but before I do that, I have to point out a huge lump of hypocrisy that is sitting out there that most of the national media won't talk about. The Associated Press climbed up on its moribund - if not already dead - high horse and proclaimed its unflinching ethics when it forbid the BCS from using the AP Poll as part of the methodology for determining the BCS rankings and thereby the bowl pairings for a season. Their argument was the threadbare excuse that they were there to report the news and not to make the news. How noble of them…

However, the AP continues to do its poll and it continues to anoint a team as the National Champion again this year just as it has done for however long they have been doing this. I became aware of college football rankings in the early 1950s as I was growing up and the AP had been doing it for a while before that. That leads to the very real possibility that the AP champion and the BCS Champion could be different teams. That would be newsworthy and reported in at least 5000 papers and another 5000 radio and TV outlets around the country. But that would be "making the news", wouldn't it? So, obviously if the AP REALLY cared about reporting and not making news, they'd stop with their poll and stop crowning their national champion. And that will happen right after Paris Hilton passes a virginity test and gets into a convent.

Michigan, USC, Florida, Notre Dame and Arkansas trailed Ohio State in the BCS poll that came out Sunday night. I could ask rhetorically where Boise State is since they are the only other undefeated team in the country, but I don't really believe that Boise State is better than any other team on this list. Who will wind up as the #2 team depends on what happens in the next few weeks. Notre Dame and USC play each other. Even if Notre Dame wins, they cannot be ranked ahead of Michigan since Michigan went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame by almost 4 TDs. But if USC wins that game - - and beats rival UCLA too - - then making USC the #2 team could make sense. Florida and Arkansas play each other and the winner of that game might deserve consideration as the Ohio State opponent in the National Championship Game but only if some really strange things happen.

Here's why I want to see USC in that game. Yes, I know they got beaten by a mediocre Oregon State team and that should doom their championship aspirations. But USC has played an out of conference schedule that is laudatory. They played Arkansas, Nebraska and Notre Dame. Excuse me, but there aren't any Western Carolina equivalents on that list nor any Ball State equivalents nor any Utah State equivalents. I want the BCS to put USC in the game because that MIGHT get coaches at top-shelf schools to realize that top-shelf scheduling is a way to get into the championship game and cupcake scheduling can keep you out.

Folks, get behind this thinking. Even if you have no USC affiliation, which I certainly don't have, get behind them as a participant in the National Championship Game this year and make it known that it was the "strength of schedule" that made you want to see them there. If you don't think that's important, then maybe you'd be amenable to putting Boise State in the National Championship Game. After all, the Broncos are 11-0 [and favored to be 12-0] and they have beaten the likes of Sacramento State, Utah and Wyoming this year…

Now an Ohio State-USC Championship Game match-up will royally cheese off the Rose Bowl folks. Under the prior system, they would have had this game in the Rose Bowl locked up by contract. It would be the Big Ten Champ versus the Pac-10 Champ. Under this system, that match-up will be somewhere else. C'est la guerre! The Rose Bowl will probably take the Big 10 runner-up, Michigan, to play there but who will they get as the opponent? The runner up in the PAC-10 would make the "Grandaddy of Them All" into the Leftovers Bowl. So, who would go there? Boise State? The Big East Champion? One of the SEC teams? Texas? Root for Ohio State and USC in the Championship Game and you'll get to see the drama of what the Rose Bowl gets for a match-up as an added bonus at no extra charge.

I do not pretend to know all of the deals that have been struck between bowl games and the various conferences around the country. But as I look at the records of teams going into the last two weeks of regularly scheduled games, I see the possibility of a dozen or so teams going to bowl games with 6-6 records. If the over/under line here were set at 10, I'd take OVER. Now, how will that stir your juices and get you to want to watch some of these bowl matchups. Here are some possibilities; are you excited about any of these?

Repeat after me:

There … are … too … many … damned … bowl … games! There are some very good games this weekend. Notre Dame and USC will get more national attention than any other game and it will probably be the best game, but don't ignore Texas A&M at Texas. This is a major rivalry game between two teams with very good records.

Boise State/Nevada is an important game because a Boise State win here probably means they get into the BCS bowl game rotation - - and Nevada isn't a bad team at all.

And don't ignore the LSU/Arkansas game because it can have significant impact on the BCS National Championship Game. A loss by Arkansas will take them out of whatever remote contention they may have to play in that game.

At the other end of the spectrum you can watch to see if a 2-9 UNC team can turn Duke into an 0-12 team for the season. I can tell you one thing for sure; it will be a long time before Duke and UNC meet in a basketball game where their combined records are 2-20 going in.

Another pathetic game will be the one matching the Aggies of New Mexico State (0-6 in the WAC and 2-8 overall) with the Aggies of Utah State (1-6 in the WAC and 1-10 overall). According to one ranking system, NM State is 114th in the nation and Utah State is 118th; remember, there are only 119 Division 1-A football programs.

Florida Atlantic and Florida International hook up in what might be a classic meeting of ineptitude. Florida Atlantic is ranked 111th and Florida International is ranked dead last at 119th. You can probably take the number of sober attendees at this game and fit them all into a porta-potty.

Finally Ole Miss and Mississippi State meet in a symmetry game. Both teams are 1-6 in conference and both are 3-8 overall. It's a rivalry game so maybe some folks down there will actually care about this game.

Ponderosa Spread Games:

There are no Ponderosa Spread games this week. In fact, the largest spread posted for college football this week is 20.5 points (West Virginia over South Florida) and that is a pretty good distance from my definition of a Ponderosa Spread game, which is 24 points or more. It is possible there will be no more games of that kind for the season since none of the conference championship game would have a spread of that size nor will any bowl match-up have a number anywhere near that large.

Games of Interest:

I'd almost be tempted to take Duke against UNC this week because Duke is getting more than a TD in the game and they are at home. But I won't do that because neither team is worth betting for or against in this game. Even rabid alums here need to keep their money in their pockets and wait until the first basketball confrontation between these two schools. That will likely be a contest worthy of a wager. And they could meet as many as four times in the basketball season…

(Thurs Nite) BC - 4 at Miami (37): BC needs this game to keep open the possibility they will meet Georgia Tech in the ACC Conference Championship Game. Miami needs this to fill out their revenue goal for the season. I'll take BC to win and cover here.

Florida - 9.5 at Florida State (44): Florida's defense is very good and FSU's offense is mediocre at best. I'll take this game UNDER.

Boise State - 2.5 at Nevada (58): While both teams have good offenses, both defenses are underappreciated. I'll take this game UNDER.

Syracuse at Rutgers - 13.5 (39): I think Rutgers rebounds strongly here - particularly the defense - and there's no way they commit seven turnovers two weeks in a row. Syracuse cannot make it to a bowl game and should be eyeing the off-season by the start of the 2nd quarter. I like Rutgers at home to win and cover here. If you like Syracuse, shop the line; it's at 14.5 at one of the Internet sports books.

Purdue at Hawaii - 17.5 (72): Hawaii should give up yards and points to a decent Purdue offense but Hawaii should make mincemeat out of a mediocre Purdue defense. Yet again, I like a Hawaii game OVER. Here's another game that might get into the 90s for total score. I also want Purdue with the points here because they should get into the end zone more than a few times on Hawaii. No parlay though.

Good luck.

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		NCAA Mythical Picks - Friday 11/24/06

		Last week was not a good one for the collegiate version of Mythical Picks. I would have been better off mindlessly playing the Ponderosa Spread favorites last week. In those games, the favorites covered in five of the eight games. That would produce a small weekly mythical profit and the results brought the yearly totals to 40-38-1. Interestingly, you should note that the oddsmakers have been sufficiently shrewd to set their line such that you could not show a profit either way if you had gone with or against the favorites in these games all season long. That's why these guys work in casinos that have rugs thick enough to suck the loafers off your feet if you don't walk carefully… In my games of interest, I went 2-5-1. Did I really take Illinois and lay points on the road? Yes I did. Did I take Idaho who scored ZERO points? Yes I did. Did I take the Maryland Fumbling Machine? Yes I did. In any event, the weekly Mythical Loss was $350. The season totals now stand at 36-27-2 which would yield a Mythical Profit of $630. No one should consider using any information herein as the basis for making a wager or for deciding which side to take in a wager involving real money. Only dumb people would do that - - only people dumb enough to be able to go to a mind reader and receive a discount for the reading. General Comments: I want to say this carefully and respectfully. Each and every one of the radio/TV college football experts who even hinted that Rutgers could be a contender for the National Championship Game should face one of two fates: 1. Being fired for the stated reason of incompetence 2. Being made to wear Rutgers #1 gear at all times for an entire calendar year. They can take their pick… A long time reader of these essays is an Auburn graduate who revels in those times when Auburn opens a can of whoop-ass and sprays it all over Alabama. She sent me a note on Sunday asking me what Auburn and the moon have in common. Her answer was that like Auburn, the moon controls The Tide. [BaDaBing! BaDaBoom!] Alabama's season is over; their record is 6-6; Mike Shula has lost four consecutive games to Auburn. In the four-year Mike Shula era at Alabama, the team is 25-23 overall, 13-19 in SEC games and 0-19 when it goes into the fourth quarter behind in the score. My friend/former colleague sent along those stats in bold type telling me not to ignore them or miss them. Here's what I don't understand: Why did the university/athletic department feel the need to give Mike Shula a contract extension before this season started? Speaking of less than fully successful coaches, Jeff Bowden was induced to resign as offensive coordinator at Florida State after five or six less than lustrous years in that job. According to reports, the boosters there put together an incentive package that will pay Jeff Bowden $107,500 per year for the next 5 years just to go away. And supposedly, there is no "offset provision" here. He can go to the University of Wherever and be their offensive coordinator and still get the money as an annuity over the next five years. He gets that because the school and the boosters think he sucked at his job. Memo to Me: Figure out how to get a job such that when you stink out the joint doing your job they pay you more than $500K just to go away. I want to talk about the BCS rankings in a moment; but before I do that, I have to point out a huge lump of hypocrisy that is sitting out there that most of the national media won't talk about. The Associated Press climbed up on its moribund - if not already dead - high horse and proclaimed its unflinching ethics when it forbid the BCS from using the AP Poll as part of the methodology for determining the BCS rankings and thereby the bowl pairings for a season. Their argument was the threadbare excuse that they were there to report the news and not to make the news. How noble of them… However, the AP continues to do its poll and it continues to anoint a team as the National Champion again this year just as it has done for however long they have been doing this. I became aware of college football rankings in the early 1950s as I was growing up and the AP had been doing it for a while before that. That leads to the very real possibility that the AP champion and the BCS Champion could be different teams. That would be newsworthy and reported in at least 5000 papers and another 5000 radio and TV outlets around the country. But that would be "making the news", wouldn't it? So, obviously if the AP REALLY cared about reporting and not making news, they'd stop with their poll and stop crowning their national champion. And that will happen right after Paris Hilton passes a virginity test and gets into a convent. Michigan, USC, Florida, Notre Dame and Arkansas trailed Ohio State in the BCS poll that came out Sunday night. I could ask rhetorically where Boise State is since they are the only other undefeated team in the country, but I don't really believe that Boise State is better than any other team on this list. Who will wind up as the #2 team depends on what happens in the next few weeks. Notre Dame and USC play each other. Even if Notre Dame wins, they cannot be ranked ahead of Michigan since Michigan went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame by almost 4 TDs. But if USC wins that game - - and beats rival UCLA too - - then making USC the #2 team could make sense. Florida and Arkansas play each other and the winner of that game might deserve consideration as the Ohio State opponent in the National Championship Game but only if some really strange things happen. Here's why I want to see USC in that game. Yes, I know they got beaten by a mediocre Oregon State team and that should doom their championship aspirations. But USC has played an out of conference schedule that is laudatory. They played Arkansas, Nebraska and Notre Dame. Excuse me, but there aren't any Western Carolina equivalents on that list nor any Ball State equivalents nor any Utah State equivalents. I want the BCS to put USC in the game because that MIGHT get coaches at top-shelf schools to realize that top-shelf scheduling is a way to get into the championship game and cupcake scheduling can keep you out. Folks, get behind this thinking. Even if you have no USC affiliation, which I certainly don't have, get behind them as a participant in the National Championship Game this year and make it known that it was the "strength of schedule" that made you want to see them there. If you don't think that's important, then maybe you'd be amenable to putting Boise State in the National Championship Game. After all, the Broncos are 11-0 [and favored to be 12-0] and they have beaten the likes of Sacramento State, Utah and Wyoming this year… Now an Ohio State-USC Championship Game match-up will royally cheese off the Rose Bowl folks. Under the prior system, they would have had this game in the Rose Bowl locked up by contract. It would be the Big Ten Champ versus the Pac-10 Champ. Under this system, that match-up will be somewhere else. C'est la guerre! The Rose Bowl will probably take the Big 10 runner-up, Michigan, to play there but who will they get as the opponent? The runner up in the PAC-10 would make the "Grandaddy of Them All" into the Leftovers Bowl. So, who would go there? Boise State? The Big East Champion? One of the SEC teams? Texas? Root for Ohio State and USC in the Championship Game and you'll get to see the drama of what the Rose Bowl gets for a match-up as an added bonus at no extra charge. I do not pretend to know all of the deals that have been struck between bowl games and the various conferences around the country. But as I look at the records of teams going into the last two weeks of regularly scheduled games, I see the possibility of a dozen or so teams going to bowl games with 6-6 records. If the over/under line here were set at 10, I'd take OVER. Now, how will that stir your juices and get you to want to watch some of these bowl matchups. Here are some possibilities; are you excited about any of these? Iowa versus Pitt Wyoming versus East Carolina Arkansas State versus Alabama Florida State versus Washington State Repeat after me: There … are … too … many … damned … bowl … games! There are some very good games this weekend. Notre Dame and USC will get more national attention than any other game and it will probably be the best game, but don't ignore Texas A&M at Texas. This is a major rivalry game between two teams with very good records. Boise State/Nevada is an important game because a Boise State win here probably means they get into the BCS bowl game rotation - - and Nevada isn't a bad team at all. And don't ignore the LSU/Arkansas game because it can have significant impact on the BCS National Championship Game. A loss by Arkansas will take them out of whatever remote contention they may have to play in that game. At the other end of the spectrum you can watch to see if a 2-9 UNC team can turn Duke into an 0-12 team for the season. I can tell you one thing for sure; it will be a long time before Duke and UNC meet in a basketball game where their combined records are 2-20 going in. Another pathetic game will be the one matching the Aggies of New Mexico State (0-6 in the WAC and 2-8 overall) with the Aggies of Utah State (1-6 in the WAC and 1-10 overall). According to one ranking system, NM State is 114th in the nation and Utah State is 118th; remember, there are only 119 Division 1-A football programs. Florida Atlantic and Florida International hook up in what might be a classic meeting of ineptitude. Florida Atlantic is ranked 111th and Florida International is ranked dead last at 119th. You can probably take the number of sober attendees at this game and fit them all into a porta-potty. Finally Ole Miss and Mississippi State meet in a symmetry game. Both teams are 1-6 in conference and both are 3-8 overall. It's a rivalry game so maybe some folks down there will actually care about this game. Ponderosa Spread Games: There are no Ponderosa Spread games this week. In fact, the largest spread posted for college football this week is 20.5 points (West Virginia over South Florida) and that is a pretty good distance from my definition of a Ponderosa Spread game, which is 24 points or more. It is possible there will be no more games of that kind for the season since none of the conference championship game would have a spread of that size nor will any bowl match-up have a number anywhere near that large. Games of Interest: I'd almost be tempted to take Duke against UNC this week because Duke is getting more than a TD in the game and they are at home. But I won't do that because neither team is worth betting for or against in this game. Even rabid alums here need to keep their money in their pockets and wait until the first basketball confrontation between these two schools. That will likely be a contest worthy of a wager. And they could meet as many as four times in the basketball season… (Thurs Nite) BC - 4 at Miami (37): BC needs this game to keep open the possibility they will meet Georgia Tech in the ACC Conference Championship Game. Miami needs this to fill out their revenue goal for the season. I'll take BC to win and cover here. Florida - 9.5 at Florida State (44): Florida's defense is very good and FSU's offense is mediocre at best. I'll take this game UNDER. Boise State - 2.5 at Nevada (58): While both teams have good offenses, both defenses are underappreciated. I'll take this game UNDER. Syracuse at Rutgers - 13.5 (39): I think Rutgers rebounds strongly here - particularly the defense - and there's no way they commit seven turnovers two weeks in a row. Syracuse cannot make it to a bowl game and should be eyeing the off-season by the start of the 2nd quarter. I like Rutgers at home to win and cover here. If you like Syracuse, shop the line; it's at 14.5 at one of the Internet sports books. Purdue at Hawaii - 17.5 (72): Hawaii should give up yards and points to a decent Purdue offense but Hawaii should make mincemeat out of a mediocre Purdue defense. Yet again, I like a Hawaii game OVER. Here's another game that might get into the 90s for total score. I also want Purdue with the points here because they should get into the end zone more than a few times on Hawaii. No parlay though. Good luck. << Back to Wagers = Home = Recent = Topical = Wagers = = Archives = Pros = Scores = Contact =