I certainly didn't get back to even for the season last weekend, but I did have a really good weekend. Overall, I went 13-6 and it took a back-door cover in the final two minutes by the Cardinals against Vikings to produce one of the six losses. Whatever. Last weekend produced a Mythical Profit of $640 and that started to eat into the huge mythical deficit I had amassed. For the season, the tally stands at 95-96-2 yielding a Mythical Loss of $940.
I'll make 17 Mythical Picks this weekend. So, in order to make it to the break-even point, all I need to do will be to go 14-3. And the problem with that would be…?
Looking at that past performance, no one should be tempted to use any information here as the basis for deciding how to make a selection for a wager that involves any real/actual currency recognized anywhere on Planet Earth. Anyone dumb enough to do that would be speechless if he ever decided to speak his mind.
General Comments:
I'm beginning to think that the Titans and the 49ers may be turning the corner from "bad teams" to "rapidly improving teams". Both of these teams are very young and it seems as if the young talent is ripening on the vine rather nicely. I had a similar inkling about the Browns a couple of weeks ago, but after last weekend's bed-wetting against the Bengals, I think the Browns are a "young and still bad team".
Drew Brees has thrown for about 1900 yards in his last four games. The stat freaks have gone berserk coming up with comparisons to other QBs in history who have had prolific passing stats over similar stretches. Forget that for a moment; acknowledge that his passing stats for the past month have been stratospheric; now look at a less wonderful part of the picture. In those four games, the Saints are 2-2. As Herman Edwards famously said, "We play to win the game." Note, he didn't say we play to run up stat numbers…
The Chargers have a two game lead in the AFC West; they've won five in a row and they have a schedule in front of them that is nothing more than a gentle breeze. The Chargers have to play one road game in Seattle where the Seahawks are tough; their other road game is in Buffalo where the Bills are surely better than they are on the road but - nonetheless - they're still the Bills. Their home games include Denver and KC who the Chargers played close on the road and then they close out the season with a visit from the Arizona Cardinals. Barring catastrophic injuries, put the Chargers down for a bye week in the first round of the playoffs.
Since I just mentioned the Arizona Cardinals, I guess this is the place to note that there are reports in the Arizona Republic that Edgerrin James "didn't participate in a scheduled walk-through session" on Tuesday this week. James also watched the second half of last weekend's game against the Vikings from the sideline after getting only four carries and two pass receptions in the first half. James has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game for Arizona after he came there as a free agent signing a four year deal worth about $30M. Not what you'd call a good investment…
Here's another futility stat you can hang onto regarding the Cardinals. The last coach for the Cards who had a career winning record there was Don Coryell; he left in 1977. Since then there have been 10 head coaches all of whom have been below .500 - as will Dennis Green be under .500 if the Bidwells decide to swallow the rest of his contract and fire him shortly after this season is over.
When Tony Romo was so new to quarterbacking that he was also a celebrity on account of his success, he happened to mention that he always had the hots for Jessica Simpson. There were stories that they may have had a date arranged and whatever; gossip columns about celebrities interest me not at all. But it did get me to thinking about Jessica Simpson for a moment and made me wonder:
-
How come she isn't known as Jessie "The Body"?
There's something else about this change in organization on the Raiders' coaching staff. The Raiders scored two TDs last weekend against a Chargers' team with a good if not great defense. The Raiders have been shut out twice on national TV this year and those games did not generate sufficient dissatisfaction with Walsh's 'offensive coordinating" to arrive at a decision to dismiss him. But that game did? Something else has to be going on behind the curtains there. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain…
The Jags play up to or down to the level of their competition. This year, the Jags have beaten Dallas and both NY teams; those three teams may not all make the playoffs, but they are in the mix for the playoffs as of now. Those same Jaguars have also lost to Houston (twice) and Washington. Neither of those teams figures prominently in the playoff picture at the moment.
Forget all the nonsense about Michael Vick flipping the bird to fans after last week's game. Focus on the comment from Jim Mora sr. that Vick is a "coach killer" because that's far closer to true than false. Vick has enormous natural talent but he has not become a QB that can lead a team to glory. I think part of the reason is that he gives up on pass plays way too soon - even given the marginal set of receivers at his disposal - and takes off running. That gets him notoriety and fame and sets up the coach to get the axe when Magnificent Michael doesn't bring glory to the squad. Frankly, Vince Young is playing the QB position better now after only half a season than Michael Vick is playing the position after 5 years. And I say that even though I still have some doubts about Young's passing accuracy.
Last weekend, Vick was 9-24 for 84 yards in a game the Falcons really needed to win. For the season he's completing only 51% of his passes and he has 9 INTs to go with his 13 TDs. There's a word for all of that and it is "mediocre". Forget Vick's very sincere apology for flipping off some fans (with both hands proving he is ambidextrous); what someone needs to demand is an apology for how miserable the Falcons have played in the last several weeks!
There are four games this weekend that involve two "less than good" teams. Those are the kinds of games that no one should ever be forced to watch and I think you'll be able to figure out which games on the slate this weekend fit this description. It will also be interesting to note whether or not any of the Thursday night games "set aside" for NFLN ever get two bad teams. After all, the networks owned by other people often manage to get bad games involving less than mediocre teams at the end of the season because they selected "improperly" at the beginning of the year. You'd think that NFLN would have that happen to them once in a while too, no?
The Picks:
(Thurs Nite) Baltimore at Cincy - 3 (44): Don't worry, I'm not going to pick last night's game and claim it as a victory for Mythical Picks. Naturally, had I made a pick there, it would have been to take Cincy and lay the points and to play the game UNDER and to parlay those bets. That's the difference between making a wager based on a prediction and making a wager on a "postdiction". The Bengals are the only team in the AFC North that can catch the Ravens without some kind of deus ex machina intervention.
Minnesota at Chicago - 9.5 (36): Minnesota has been fading for the past month, but they do have a very good run defense. That will mean that Rex Grossman will have to win the game for the Bears and while he has some really great games against bad opponents, he still makes a whole lot of mistakes out there. The line is much too fat for a game that ought to be low scoring, so I'll take the Vikes with the points here.
Arizona at St. Louis - 6.5 (45.5): This will be one of the four really bad games this weekend; both teams are less than good. Don't be fooled by the Rams' record; they look as if they are in contention for a playoff spot but that's only because a half-dozen other NFC teams around them are in the midst of an implosion. The reports are that the Cardinals' players like playing for Dennis Green. If those reports are right, then these players better get off their fat butts and start playing as if they want him back next year because it will probably take four wins in the last five weeks to save his job - and the Cards' schedule includes Seattle, San Diego and Denver from here on out. The Cards finish up on 31 December so the question is this: Will Dennis Green be fired before 2007 is rung in? I see lots of points here against two marginal defensive units so I'll take the game OVER.
Indy - 7 at Tennessee (48): The last time these teams played, the Titans were 18 point underdogs; they lost by one point. The over/under for the game was 47; the actual game total was 27. Tennessee had the miracle comeback last weekend against the Giants but if they fall 3 TDs behind the Colts, they won't come close. The Titans are an improving team but they're not anywhere near the Colts just yet so I'll take Indy to win and cover here.
SF at New Orleans - 7.5 (45): Drew Brees has to cool down one of these days, doesn't he? I don't think the 49ers can hold him to 150 yards passing, but maybe they can generate enough offense to make him sweat… I'll take the Niners with the points here.
Atlanta at Washington - 2 (38): This will be one of the four really bad games this weekend; both teams are less than good. If you wager on this game, you might as well use a Ouija board to make your picks; you never know with either team which version of the team will show up. In case the listless and tepid version of the Falcons show up yet again this weekend, might I suggest that Jim Mora Jr. post his résumé on Monster.com? The Redskins will play a rookie QB who has been decent in his first two games but not spectacular. The Redskins' defense stunk for two months and then played a lights out game last weekend against the Panthers. Don't bet on this game for real money under any circumstances. For mythical purposes only, I'll take the Falcons with the points.
KC - 5 at Cleveland (36): Braylon Edwards did his "T.O. imitation" last weekend berating teammates on the sidelines. Edwards' tirade was only about 50% of what T.O. has pulled; now the Browns need Edwards to perform on the field at 50% of what T.O. does to make him worth the aggravation. Given all the snow and ice that fell on KC earlier this week, the Chiefs may find Cleveland "spa-like" on Sunday. KC had extra time to prepare for this game and need it to stay solidly in the wild card playoff picture. I'll take the Chiefs to win and cover here. I also like this game OVER with no parlay.
Detroit at New England - 13.5 (41.5): I hate to lay this many points in an NFL game. But I hate betting on the miserable Lions on the road even more. They say that the Lions' players are playing for next year's jobs. Why the hell would any half-decent player want to be on that train-wreck of a team? Give me the Pats and you can have the points.
San Diego - 5.5 at Buffalo (44): Buffalo is better at home than on the road and it should be cold on Sunday in Buffalo. That's the good news for the Bills because the rest of the game analysis says they should get their lunch handed to them. Because the weather conditions might nudge Coach Schottenheimer back towards "Martyball" and because the Bills' offense is offensive, I'll take this game UNDER.
Jets - 1.5 at Green Bay (42.5): Green Bay is 1-4 at home and 3-3 on the road this year. If that makes sense to you, please explain… The Jets are over .500 for the season. If that makes sense to you, please explain… I'm tossing a coin here and it says to take the Packers with the points. The best way to double your money on this game is to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket.
Jax at Miami - 1.5 (36.5): Have the Dolphins become good enough to be favored over the Jags or is this a reflection of the fact that Jax on the road is 1-4 this year? How many of you circled this date on your calendar in August looking forward to the quarterback match-up between David Garrard and Joey Harrington? Me too. This should be a low scoring game and so I'll take the Jags with the points.
Houston at Oakland - 3 (37): This will be one of the four really bad games this weekend; both teams are less than good. In fact, both teams are miserable; this is the worst game of the weekend. Let the John Shoop Offensive Extravaganza begin. Unless he has a magic wand or a deal with The Devil, I don't know that he can heal LaMont Jordan, turn Aaron Brooks into a quarterback who doesn't embarrass the team once per quarter, get Randy Moss to pretend to give a damn about playing football any more this year and convince Jerry Porter and the rest of the Raider hierarchy to kiss and make up. That's what the Raiders' offense REALLY needs. Art Shell is angry at the back-stabbers who got Tom Walsh fired; good, maybe now he will be more animated on the sidelines than a large gargoyle. Houston is worse on the road than they are at home and Oakland's defense has improved as the season has gone by. I'll take the Raiders to win and cover here because I think the Texans will have a tough time getting out of single digits on the scoreboard. I'll also take the game UNDER but no parlay.
Tampa at Pittsburgh - 7 (41): This will be one of the four really bad games this weekend; both teams are less than good. But if you had been circling dates on the calendar back in August, this might have been one of the preferred games of the weekend. I think the team that makes the last mistake will lose this game and so I'll take the Bucs with the points here. Whatever.
Dallas - 2.5 at Giants (44): This is do-or-die for the Giants and it is the best game on the card this weekend. A loss here puts the Giants two games behind the Cowboys with only 4 games to play and Dallas will be at home for three of those four games. A win for the Giants brings them even with the Cowboys and will give them a head-to-head sweep as a tie-breaker for division championship determination. The Giants have a much harder schedule in front of them than the Cowboys do so this is it for the Giants. How all the team bickering and finger pointing makes things easier for the Giants is hard to figure. If Martin Grammatica is the answer at place-kicker for the Cowboys, the question must have been, "Who the hell do we have on speed dial from years ago who can kick a football?" I'll take the Cowboys to win and cover here but would not be shocked if the Giants won outright. If you like the Giants, shop the line; you can find it at 3.5 at one of the sportsbooks.
Seattle at Denver - 3 (40): Here's a game with plenty of playoff implications and a rookie QB starting his first game ever. Story lines abound and with this as the Sunday night game, you can be sure we'll here all of them. Frankly, I think this line is based on Denver's home-field reputation but the Broncos have already lost twice at home this year. I think Seattle can win outright and so I'll take the Seahawks with the points here.
(Mon Nite) Carolina - 3 at Philly (37.5): Carolina has looked very good in stretches this season and very poor in others. Last week was definitely one of their "very poor" appearances. I'll guess that they stay in the doldrums one more week and take the Eagles at home with the points here.
Good luck.
= Archives = Pros = Scores = Contact =